I posted a winning week last weekend by going 3-2 on my Group of Five best bets, improving my season-long record to 22-18. Unfortunately, my favorite Power Five plays (Utah -3.5) and Florida State (+3.5) came up just short. Fortunately, those don’t count for my record in this column!
As a reminder, I started the year hot, hot, hot. I ripped off 11 winners in my first 15 bets. Since then, I’m just 11-14. Tail my bets at your own risk, although if nothing else, I hope my explanation behind the wagers helps inform you about each game.
So let’s check out the college football betting odds and find a few Group of Five bets worth placing this weekend.
SMU +3.5 vs. Cincinnati
The Mustangs have burned me on numerous occasions in big games, but I don’t care. They could’ve defeated Maryland and TCU, but fell just short against those really solid Power Five teams. The Mustangs laid an egg against UCF, but they bounced back with a win over an improving Navy team.
SMU isn’t an elite team, but I believe it’s closer to how it played against Maryland and TCU than UCF. Cincinnati is arguably the top team in the Group of Five, but this isn’t last year’s Cincinnati team. The Bearcats are 2-0 in the AAC with a 10-point win over Tulsa and a four-point win over South Florida. They look vulnerable.
Southern Miss-Texas State under 43.5
Each team’s defense is a lot better than its offense. Southern Miss has a nonexistent passing attack, and the Eagles rank 113th nationally in ESPN’s offensive efficiency metric. Texas State’s offense is worse, ranking 118th.
Defensively, however, ESPN lists each team in the top 40 nationally in efficiency. I just don’t see either offense getting on track against capable defensive units.
Arkansas State +6.5 vs. Louisiana
Robert Munoz likes Arkansas State as his Group of Five Underdog of the Week, and it’s easy to see why. Louisiana isn’t the same team it was last season, having started the year 3-3 with an 0-2 record against Sun Belt West opponents. Another Sun Belt West foe, Arkansas State, comes to town this weekend with a 6-1 record against the spread.
The Red Wolves struggle defensively, but Louisiana’s offense isn’t great, which should help mask the Red Wolves’ weak defense. Former Florida State quarterback James Blackman is steady, and he should make a few nice plays against Louisiana’s defense. Arkansas State has been close to securing some quality wins, and I think the Red Wolves at least cover Saturday.
ECU +5 vs. UCF
Sign me up for Mike Houston’s team as a home underdog. The Pirates are just 4-3 this season, but this feels like the biggest home game on ECU’s conference schedule. I’m expecting a packed house – 38,000 people saw the Pirates beat Memphis in four overtimes last weekend – and much like SMU, I feel like East Carolina is poised for a season-defining win.
The Pirates whiffed on a home opportunity against N.C. State – losing by a point – but I like them to cover (and win) Saturday.
UTSA -10 vs. North Texas
UTSA was blown out by North Texas at the end of last season, but I love the Roadrunners to get revenge this season. Frank Harris is among the best quarterbacks in the Group of Five, and North Texas allows the most passing yards of any team in Conference USA. A large part of my thinking for this bet is going against North Texas.
The Mean Green are 3-0 in C-USA play, but UTSA’s offense could realistically put up 50+ points, as North Texas has allowed an average of 50 points in its three losses. All three of North Texas’ losses have come by at least 10 points.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
