#1 seed Montana State (15-0) takes on #2 seed North Dakota State (13-2) in the FCS championship
MSU is a 3.5-point favorite on BetMGM with the total points set at 56.5. Kickoff on ESPN is 6 p.m. CT on Monday, Jan. 6.
Here is what to watch in the title bout and our score prediction.
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When MSU Has The Ball…
Montana State owns the No. 1 FCS scoring offense (41.3 points per game) and the No. 2 rushing offense (301.4 yards per game). The Bobcats also have the No. 2-graded rushing offense on PFF, the No. 6-graded passing offense (throwing for 190.2 YPG), and are No. 2 in run-blocking.
NDSU allows 17.7 points per game (No. 10 in the FCS), 119.3 rushing yards per game (No. 22), and 197.0 passing yards per game (No. 38). PFF’s team grades rank the Bison as the No. 28 FCS defense, No. 18 in rush defense, No. 3 in pass rush, No. 75 in coverage, and No. 116 in tackling.
Tommy Mellott is the No. 1-graded PFF quarterback in all of FCS/FBS. The Top 3 Walter Payton Award finalist is completing 68.8% of his passes (190/276) for 2,564 yards, 29 touchdowns, and two interceptions. Mellott has used his legs less this season, yet he’s still averaging 8.4 yards per carry, totaling 915 yards and 14 scores on the ground.
MSU has a pair of 1,000-yard running backs. Scottre Humphrey has rushed for 1,360 yards (7.2 YPC) and 15 touchdowns despite limited carries in recent games due to injury (he’s expected to play in Frisco). Adam Jones has rushed for 1,134 yards (6.6 YPC) and 14 TDs. The Bobcats have arguably the best offensive line in the FCS. Starters are Conner Moore (6-5, 310 lbs), Burke Mastel (6-4, 315 lbs) or JT Reed (6-3, 290 lbs), Cole Sain (6-4, 300 lbs), Marcus Wehr (6-4, 300 lbs), and Titan Fleischmann (6-4, 300 lbs). Moore and Wehr have next-level potential.
Wide receivers Taco Dowler (35 catches, 546 yards, 10 TDs) and Ty McCullouch (38 catches, 497 yards, 5 TDs) lead the passing attack on the outside. Tight end Rohan Jones adds 27 catches for 451 yards and eight touchdowns.
NDSU’s defense is led by linebacker Logan Kopp, who totals 69 tackles, eight TFLs, three sacks, three interceptions, and six pass breakups. Linebackers Marcus Gulley and Enock Sibomana have added 51 and 50 tackles. Eli Mostaert sets the tone in the middle as one of the top interior defensive linemen in the FCS. He has 56 tackles, 11.5 TFLs, and six sacks.
When NDSU Has The Ball…
NDSU is scoring 38.3 points per game, ranking No. 3 in the FCS. The Bison average 192.7 rushing yards per game (No. 20) and 225.9 passing YPG (No. 40). They are in the Top 10 in every PFF offensive film grade category: No. 3 offense, No. 1 passing, No. 1 pass-blocking, No. 4 receiving, No. 10 rushing, No. 8 run-blocking.
Montana State allows 17.1 points per game, which ranks No. 6 in the FCS. The Cats are No. 17 in rush defense (115.8 YPG) and No. 30 in pass defense (190.2 YPG).
NDSU’s Cam Miller is the No. 3-graded PFF quarterback in all of FCS/FBS. This year, he is 239/329 passing (72.6%) for 3,052 yards, 31 touchdowns, and four interceptions. The Top 3 Walter Payton Award finalist also has 510 rushing yards and 10 scores.
Wide receiver Bryce Lance has emerged as one of the top targets in the country, tallying 66 catches for 964 yards and 16 touchdowns. WR Chris Harris adds 29 catches for 392 yards and two TDs, Braylon Henderson has 28 catches for 323 yards and two touchdowns, and TE Joe Stoffel totals 25 receptions for 287 yards and four TDs. RaJa Nelson is another playmaker at WR who has been limited due to injury. In seven games, he has 21 catches for 204 yards and three scores.
In the backfield, Jerry Rice Award winner CharMar Brown leads NDSU with 1,104 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Barika Kpeenu averages 5.5 YPC, totaling 721 yards and seven TDs on the ground.
NDSU once again owns a beefy and athletic offensive line. Starters are Grey Zabel (6-6, 305 lbs), Hunter Poncius (6-8, 318 lbs), Trent Fraley (6-1, 299 lbs), Griffin Empey (6-3, 295 lbs), and Mason Miller (6-7, 305 lbs). Zabel is a potential Top 100 NFL Draft pick, and Miller will likely get an NFL shot as well.
MSU’s defense is led by safety Rylan Ortt (75 tackles, 3.5 TFLs) and linebacker McCade O’Reilly (71 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 3 sacks). The strong defensive line is headlined by DT Paul Brott (45 tackles, 6 TFLs, 3 sacks), All-American DE Brody Grebe (35 tackles, 10 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, 8 QB hurries), and DE Kenneth Eiden IV (26 tackles, 9.5 TFLs, 8 sacks, 5 QB hurries).
Podcasts
- FCS Championship Preview
- Colter Nuanez Discusses Montana State’s Path To Frisco
- Mike McFeely Discusses NDSU’s Return To Frisco
Special Teams
MSU kicker Myles Sansted has hit 14/18 field goals with a long of 49 yards. Brendan Hall is averaging 46.1 yards per punt. Taco Dowler has returned 52 punts for 652 yards (12.5 avg) and one touchdown. Unterrio Latin-Henley has six kick returns for 128 yards, and Adam Jones has four kick returns for 84 yards.
NDSU kicker Griffin Crosa has made 12/14 field goals with a long of 45 yards. Kaedin Steindorf is averaging 44.3 yards per punt. Jackson Williams has 13 punt returns for 141 yards and a touchdown, plus 16 kick returns for 523 yards (32.7 avg) and another score. TK Marshall has 11 kick returns for 283 yards and a touchdown.
FCS Championship Prediction
If not now, then when?
That seems to be the question Montana State faces heading into the championship game. It’s a similar feeling about SDSU facing off against NDSU in Frisco two years ago. If this SDSU team can’t beat this NDSU team, when will they? And the same can be said for MSU this season.
NDSU is very good this year. But it isn’t a team that will wow you like past championship squads. Meanwhile, this MSU outfit is the most well-rounded and dominant team the FCS has this year. Against their toughest FCS opponent, the Cats beat South Dakota somewhat comfortably in the semis, a team that beat NDSU and probably should have beaten South Dakota State. So if the Bison win Monday, you’re going to hear a collective sigh around the FCS. This is the best chance for a team outside of the MVFC to win the natty. Can the Bobcats get it done?
I think the Cats do.
They appear to be equipped in the trenches, unlike overmatched teams on the line of scrimmage in past years. The defense has been stout, perhaps very underrated nationally. And the offense can attack a defense in so many ways and make their heads spin. Mellott is on a mission, the RB duo is fantastic, the o-line is elite, and there are multiple pass-catchers who can win 1-on-1 matchups.
Both secondaries could be vulnerabilities — MSU trying to defend Miller and his arsenal of weapons on the outside, led by Lance. And NDSU trying to defend the run/pass conflict MSU puts the secondary in, notably the safeties.
Both squads eye storybook finishes.
NDSU’s seniors stuck together when they were tempted by the transfer portal last year, both before and after the head coaching change. Tim Polasek won the team over in a hurry after facing a locker room that vocally supported a different candidate. And the Bison have a different edge and fire to them under Polasek. These seniors have heard for three years now that “This just isn’t the same NDSU team.” And while that’s true when compared to all-time teams like 2018 and 2019, the Bison have still made casual runs to two national title games and a semifinal in these few “down years.”
MSU’s best players are mostly seniors from the state of Montana. Most FCS teams and fan bases won’t understand the significance of that. The pride Montana has in its football teams is superior to anywhere else in the subdivision, and to have so much homegrown talent makes it even more special. For the players, MSU is their NFL, and Monday is their Super Bowl. They’ll forever be legends if they bring home a national championship. Add in the fact that a lot of these seniors were key freshmen in the 2021 title appearance and sophomores in the 2022 semifinal run, plus getting a motivational boost after last year’s gut-wrenching second-round home loss to NDSU, and these guys will be locked in. And also add in the mental and vibes boost of Brent Vigen turning down FBS opportunities, and it all seems to be lining up for the Bobcats.
NDSU spoiled special storylines for SDSU in the semifinals, though. And the Bison could easily do it again in Frisco. They are the underdogs, both in the spread and the amount of people picking against them. There is a little magic to this NDSU team as well. But it just looks like MSU’s year, finally, to get over the hurdle. If not now, then when?
Prediction: Montana State 31-28
