“What teams/results do I need to watch for us to get a Top 8 seed?”
“What teams/results do I need to watch for us to get in the bracket from the bubble?”
As FCS Selection Sunday nears, there is a long list of Week 13 games that can impact the 24-team bracket. We list them below, conference by conference.
We included any team that could hit at least seven wins. While winning seven games doesn’t mean you’re in the bracket, especially in a 12-game season, reaching seven victories could at least get you in the initial pool of teams the selection committee will look at for the 14 at-large bids.
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Big Sky
No. 9 Montana at No. 2 Montana State
Montana State could earn a Top 2 playoff seed with a win and a 12-0 record while pushing Montana to a 9-16 seed and hosting in the first round at 8-4. If Montana wins, the Grizzlies could climb into the Top 8 seeds at 9-3 while MSU would remain a Top 8 seed.
No. 5 UC Davis at Sacramento State
UC Davis could earn a Top 5 seed with a win, finishing 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS.
No. 7 Idaho at Idaho State
Idaho is currently 8-3 overall and likely in the bracket no matter this weekend’s result. A win likely gets the Vandals a Top 8 seed at 9-3, featuring two ranked wins and an FBS win
Eastern Washington at No. 21 Northern Arizona
If NAU wins, the Lumberjacks finish 8-4 overall with seven D1 wins, putting them in bubble consideration.
Big South-OVC
No. 12 SEMO at No. 25 (coaches poll) Tennessee State
SEMO is currently 9-2 and Tennessee State is 8-3, putting both in at-large bid contention if they don’t earn the auto-bid. SEMO could clinch the AQ with a win over Tennessee State. Tennessee State could clinch the AQ by beating SEMO while TN Tech and UT Martin both lose.
Lindenwood at No. 22 UT Martin
UT Martin is not in a position to clinch the AQ due to tiebreakers. But if the Skyhawks win, they would finish 8-4 with an FBS win, putting them in bubble consideration.
Eastern Illinois at Tennessee Tech
Tennessee Tech (6-5) could earn the AQ if it beats Eastern Illinois while UT Martin and SEMO both lose.
CAA
William & Mary at No. 10 Richmond
Richmond will be in the conversation for a Top 8 seed with a win, finishing 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS. William & Mary is currently 7-4, and a win by the Tribe gives it a good argument on the bubble.
Delaware at No. 15 Villanova
Villanova is 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS, and it could secure a spot in the bracket with a win over Delaware. The Blue Hens are currently 9-1 but are not eligible for the playoffs as they transition to the FBS.
No. 13 Rhode Island at Bryant
Rhody will be in the conversation for a Top 8 seed with a win, finishing 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS.
Monmouth at No. 18 Stony Brook
Stony Brook is currently 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS, and it could secure a spot in the bracket with a win on Saturday.
No. 24 New Hampshire at Maine
UNH is currently 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS. Hitting its eighth D1 win would be big on the playoff bubble.
Towson at Campbell
Towson is currently 6-5 overall and 6-4 vs. the FCS. Hitting seven D1 wins at least puts Towson in bubble consideration, but there will probably be too many CAA teams to jump for Towson to get in.
MEAC
NC Central at Delaware State
NC Central is out of the MEAC title race and can’t advance to the Celebration Bowl, but the Eagles are eligible for an at-large bid into the FCS playoffs. If they win on Saturday, the Eagles would finish 8-3 with seven D1 wins, which would at least put them in bubble consideration.
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MVFC
No. 1 North Dakota State at No. 4 South Dakota
NDSU would earn the auto-bid and a Top 2 seed with a win, finishing 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS. USD could potentially fall out of the Top 8 seeds with a loss, finishing 8-3 overall with only seven D1 wins and no currently-ranked victories.
If USD beats NDSU, both would have arguments to be somewhere in the Top 4 seeds. NDSU would get the AQ if it loses to USD and Missouri State beats SDSU due to tiebreakers. SDSU earns the AQ if it beats Missouri State and USD beats NDSU due to tiebreakers.
No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 18 (coaches poll) Missouri State
SDSU could earn a Top 4 seed with a win on Saturday, finishing 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins. Where in the seeds would depend on if USD beat NDSU, and how the committee would order SDSU/USD/NDSU if they all had one FCS loss to each other. Missouri State is not eligible for the playoffs as it transitions to the FBS.
SDSU would earn the AQ if it beats Missouri State, USD beats NDSU, and there is a 3-way tie at 7-1 between SDSU/NDSU/USD. Those three are 1-1 against one another, all three are unbeaten against common opponents, and so the conference goes to the most recent Sagarin Ratings as a final tiebreaker — SDSU is currently 40th, NDSU is 41st, and USD is 72nd.
North Dakota at No. 14 Illinois State
Illinois State is currently 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS. A win would clinch a spot in the bracket, while a loss and an 8-4 record could still get the Redbirds in the field, they would just be sitting a little more nervously on Selection Sunday.
NEC
No. 19 Duquesne at CCSU
The winner will clinch the NEC’s auto-bid.
Patriot
Lafayette at Lehigh
Lehigh can clinch the AQ if it beats Lafayette. Or Lehigh can clinch the AQ if it loses to Lafayette, and Holy Cross and Bucknell also lose.
Holy Cross at Georgetown
Holy Cross can clinch the AQ if it beats Georgetown and Lehigh loses to Lafayette.
Colgate at Bucknell
If Bucknell beats Colgate, and Lehigh and Holy Cross both lose, there is a three-way tie at 4-2 in the standings. The auto-bid may come down to a tiebreaker committee made up of league ADs from the other schools not involved in the tie.
Pioneer
Drake at Stetson
Drake can clinch the AQ if it beats Stetson. Or Drake can clinch the AQ if it loses and Morehead State also loses.
Butler at Presbyterian
Butler can clinch the AQ if it beats Presbyterian, and Drake and Morehead State lose.
San Diego at Morehead State
Morehead State can clinch the AQ if it beats San Diego, and Drake and Butler both lose.
If Drake loses and Morehead State and Butler win, resulting in those three finishing 6-2 in league play, these tiebreakers would be used.
SoCon
Furman at No. 8 Mercer
Mercer looks to earn a Top 8 seed with a win, finishing 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins but no currently-ranked wins.
Western Carolina at Samford
WCU would hit seven wins with a victory on Saturday, putting the Catamounts in bubble consideration. They have a head-to-head win over Chattanooga, another potential seven-win team in the SoCon.
Chattanooga at Austin Peay
Chattanooga would hit seven wins with a victory on Saturday, putting the Mocs in bubble consideration. A head-to-head loss against a potential seven-win WCU team will be a factor on the bubble.
ETSU at VMI
ETSU would hit seven wins with a victory on Saturday, but it would only have six D1 wins, making it very unlikely to get into the bracket. But at seven overall wins, ETSU’s resume could at least be looked at.
Southland
No. 6 UIW at East Texas A&M
UIW will be in contention for a Top 8 seed with a win, finishing 10-2 overall/vs. the FCS.
Southeastern Louisiana at Nicholls
If SLU wins, it will finish 7-5 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS, putting the Lions in bubble consideration.
No. 11 Abilene Christian at Stephen F. Austin
If SFA wins, it would finish 7-5 overall but with only six D1 wins, making it very unlikely to get into the bracket. But at seven overall wins, SFA’s resume could at least be looked at.
ACU already has the UAC’s AQ secured. If the Wildcats beat SFA, they will be in contention for a Top 8 seed at 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with a couple of ranked wins.
Lamar at McNeese
Both teams are at six wins. The winner will hit seven D1 wins, which at least puts you in bubble consideration.
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UAC
No. 11 Abilene Christian at Stephen F. Austin
ACU already has the UAC’s AQ secured. If the Wildcats beat SFA, they will be in contention for a Top 8 seed at 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with a couple of ranked wins.
If SFA wins, it would finish 7-5 overall but with only six D1 wins, making it very unlikely to get into the bracket. But at seven overall wins, SFA’s resume could at least be looked at.
Central Arkansas at No. 16 Tarleton State
Tarleton could secure an at-large bid with a win, finishing 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS. If UCA wins, the Bears would finish 7-5 with seven D1 wins, which at least puts you in bubble consideration.
North Alabama at No. 25 Eastern Kentucky
If EKU wins, it would have a strong argument on the bubble at 8-4 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with a couple of ranked wins.
Utah Tech at Southern Utah
If SUU wins, it would finish 7-5 with seven D1 wins, an FBS win, and a head-to-head victory over EKU, providing a solid argument to be considered for an at-large bid.
