Earning one of the Top 8 FCS playoff seeds in the 24-team bracket is crucial. In the last three postseasons, seeds 1-8 are 22-2 in the second round after first-round byes.
Who is still in contention for a Top 8 seed heading into the final week of the regular season? Let’s break it down.
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Teams in each conference are listed in alphabetical order.
Media poll rankings are provided to help show where teams are currently ranked. While the polls are not a metric used by the playoff committee, members are naturally aware of the rankings and usually are pretty similar to voters in their thinking as a collective.
Big Sky
Idaho
Media Poll Rank: No. 7
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 7
If Idaho beats 5-6 Idaho State on the road, the Vandals would finish 9-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with three then-ranked wins, two currently-ranked wins, and an FBS win. Coupled with a Massey projected year-end strength of schedule that is ranked 6th, and that looks to keep Idaho in the Top 8 seeds.
Montana
Media Poll Rank: No. 9
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 10
Currently at 8-3 overall/vs. the FCS with two then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins, Montana would have to win at No. 2 Montana State to earn a first-round bye. If the Griz lose, they are likely hosting a first-round game as a seeded team somewhere in the 9-16 range.
Montana State
Media Poll Rank: No. 2
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 2
Montana State is currently 11-0, featuring two then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins, plus an FBS win. The Bobcats host No. 9 Montana this week. A win should result in the Cats earning a Top 2 seed. If they lose, they still have a good shot to be somewhere in the Top 4 seeds, depending on other results, notably the NDSU at USD game.
UC Davis
Media Poll Rank: No. 5
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 5
UC Davis is currently 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with two then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins. The Aggies travel to rival Sac State, which should be a win as the Hornets are 3-8 and on a four-game losing streak. If they do win, the Aggies will have a good argument to be a Top 5 seed at 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS.
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Big South-OVC
SEMO
Media Poll Rank: No. 12
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 6
SEMO is currently 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and one currently-ranked win. A recent two-score loss to Lindenwood, who was 4-6 at the time, could set the Redhawks back in the seeds like it did in the national rankings. If they beat Tennessee State (who is 8-3) on the road this weekend, SEMO would be 10-1 vs. the FCS with one ranked win. The question would be if the loss to Lindenwood, a projected year-end strength of schedule ranked 81st, and just one ranked win will prevent the committee from giving SEMO a Top 8 seed.
Tennessee State will hit nine wins if it beats SEMO, but it’s probably too big of a jump to get into the Top 8 seeds. It is ranked No. 25 in the Coaches Poll and unranked in the Media Poll.
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CAA
Rhode Island
Media Poll Rank: No. 13
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: NR
Rhody is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and one currently-ranked win. The Rams have a winnable game at Bryant to finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS. Their projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 48th. The question for Rhody is if the lack of ranked wins and its SOS will prevent it from getting a Top 8 seed.
Richmond
Media Poll Rank: No. 10
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: NR
Richmond is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS. The Spiders don’t own any ranked wins, but they do have a quality victory over Delaware, who is now 9-1. Delaware isn’t eligible to be voted on in the polls as it transitions to the FBS. Richmond hosts William & Mary this week, a team on the playoff bubble. If they win, the Spiders will be 10-1 vs. the FCS and 8-0 in the CAA. Richmond’s projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 69th. Winning the CAA could get Richmond a first-round bye, but the lack of ranked wins and its SOS might be questioned by the committee.
MVFC
North Dakota State
Media Poll Rank: No. 1
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 1
NDSU is 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins and four currently-ranked wins. The Bison go to No. 4 South Dakota this week. If they win, they should be a Top 2 seed. If NDSU loses, it will still have a good shot to be somewhere in the Top 4 seeds, depending on the Montana State/Montana result and how the committee would decide to order NDSU/USD/SDSU, who will all have one FCS loss to each other if SDSU beats Missouri State. NDSU’s projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 1st in the FCS, which will help a ton in the seeding.
South Dakota
Media Poll Rank: No. 4
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 4
USD is 8-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win and no currently-ranked wins. The Coyotes host No. 1 NDSU on Saturday. If USD wins, it is in the conversation for a Top 4 seed at 9-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS, highlighted by knocking off the top-ranked Bison. If the Yotes lose, they will be 8-3 overall with only seven D1 wins and zero currently-ranked victories. Is that good enough for a first-round bye? Their projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 8th, which could help. However, USD’s lower number of D1 wins and no currently-ranked wins could hurt. Their seven D1 wins will be up against nine and 10 D1 wins.
South Dakota State
Media Poll Rank: No. 3
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 3
SDSU is 9-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins. SDSU travels to No. 18 Missouri State this week. The Jackrabbits are probably still a Top 8 seed if they lose. But with a likely win at Mo State, the Jacks look to be somewhere in the Top 4 seeds, depending on the Montana State/Montana and USD/NDSU results. SDSU’s projected year-end strength of schedule is ranked 3rd, which will help a lot in the seeds, especially since the Jacks have a non-D1 win on their resume.
Illinois State will hit nine wins if it beats UND, but it likely lacks the number of ranked wins to get a first-round bye.
SoCon
Mercer
Media Poll Rank: No. 8
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 8
Mercer is currently 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins and no currently-ranked wins. SoCon teams Chattanooga and ETSU getting upset last week didn’t do Mercer’s playoff resume any favors. The Bears host 3-7 Furman this week, who just beat previously-ranked ETSU. If Mercer wins, it should be a Top 8 seed at 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with multiple then-ranked wins. Whether the Bears get into the Top 5 seeds will depend on other results, how the committee views their projected year-end strength of schedule of 60th, and how the committee views their four then-ranked wins vs. zero now-ranked wins.
Southland
UIW
Media Poll Rank: No. 6
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: No. 9
UIW is 9-2 overall/vs. the FCS with zero then-ranked wins and one currently-ranked win. The Cardinals should be rooting for Northern Arizona to win this week and remain in playoff contention. UIW goes to 3-8 East Texas A&M this week. With a win, UIW will finish 10-2 with one ranked win and a projected year-end SOS of 53rd. That could put UIW in the 6-8 seed range, depending on what happens elsewhere. UIW may also need a bit of help to get into the Top 8, as the Cardinals were No. 9 in the committee’s Top 10 in late October.
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United Athletic Conference
Abilene Christian
Media Poll Rank: No. 11
Playoff Committee’s Oct. Top 10 Rank: NR
ACU is 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with two then-ranked wins and two currently-ranked wins. The Wildcats go to 6-5 SFA this week. If they win to finish 9-2 vs. the FCS with two ranked victories, that could get ACU into the Top 8 seeds, depending on what happens elsewhere. A solid projected year-end strength of schedule ranked 28th could help their argument. Although there will be several 10-win teams fighting for a first-round bye, and a 9-win Idaho team would have an argument over a 9-win ACU team due to the head-to-head win.
