South Dakota State eyes its fourth straight win over rival North Dakota State. In doing so, the Jackrabbits would earn its first FCS championship.
Here are some keys to victory for an SDSU win.
RELATED: 5 Keys For An NDSU Victory
Come Out Confident
SDSU is the favorite. The Jacks are the No. 1 seed and have been ranked No. 1 since beating NDSU in mid-October. And most coaches think the Jacks will win. The expectations, and the pressure, are on this SDSU team to be the first squad to knock off the Bison in Frisco.
SDSU came out with an incredible amount of confidence and swagger in its destruction of Montana State in the semifinals. It will need to do so again on the biggest FCS stage against an NDSU team comfortable in that setting.
The Bison have jumped all over lesser-experienced teams in the championship game. SDSU has a veteran roster that has played in plenty of postseason games, including in Frisco during the spring. That should help the players not let the moment get too big. NDSU is a rare underdog in this game and has its backs against the wall with some injuries as some FCS followers are almost salivating at the thought of a new champion. The Jacks will want to come out confident and make a statement that this is their year because NDSU can snowball you in a hurry if early momentum is on its side, especially in a championship atmosphere.
Limit Play-Action Success
Stopping the run is key No. 1 for SDSU’s defense. SDSU has the best FCS rushing D, allowing 83.0 YPG. The Bison own the No. 3 rushing offense (273.3 YPG). NDSU is already down its top rusher Hunter Luepke. New leading rusher Kobe Johnson has an “or” next to his name as the starting RB with TK Marshall. And No. 2 RB TaMerik Williams is not listed on the depth chart. Johnson hurt his finger late in the semifinals, and Williams had a boot on after getting hurt in the quarterfinals.
Limiting the play-action success is another key. NDSU’s offense is most in rhythm when the run sets up the pass, sucking in defenders on play-action and having Miller make routine passes, whether it’s across the middle in open windows or in the flats to a tight end or fullback.
Miller has an 83.6 passing grade on PFF on play-action compared to a 60.2 passing grade on non-play-action.
In the three straight wins over NDSU, the Jacks have limited the Bison to 127, 147, and 97 rushing yards. The stout SDSU front seven and beat-up NDSU RB group suggests the Bison are going to need to do damage through the air. Miller was not in rhythm in the semifinals vs. UIW, going 1/12 for five yards. But the quarterfinal game vs. Samford is a good example of how the Bison offense can look when the passing game is in a groove. Samford sold out to stop the run and had success early. NDSU went to the air and Miller was efficient, mixing in play-action looks to finish 15/18 for 194 yards and a TD. That eventually led to the ground attack finding more room as Samford’s defense started to wear down while needing to respect the pass more.
The Jacks’ top focus will be stopping the run, but the linebackers and safeties will also need to be disciplined with their eyes and not bite on play-action. NDSU has proven to be dangerous leaking players out of the backfield on play-action. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bison run their formerly go-to wheel-route concept package for an explosive play if SDSU’s defense is overly aggressive against the run.
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Avoid Mental Mistakes
SDSU is a veteran squad, but it will need to keep emotions in check on this grand stage against its rival. False starts early could get the Bison momentum rolling. Unsportsmanlike conducts after big plays could stall momentum. Taking unnecessary risks on punt returns could flip the field. Small details matter in a game this big, and mistakes get amplified. Momentum will swing in both directions Sunday. But SDSU can’t afford to do NDSU any favors and lose valuable yardage due to mental mistakes.
Isaiah Davis Tough Yardage
Davis has played like the best running back in the FCS during these playoffs, averaging more than eight yards per carry. He continues to elevate his play in the postseason.
SDSU’s o-line will need a big day against a young Bison d-line. NDSU twin DTs Eli and Will Mostaert were not on this week’s depth chart, so three of the four interior defensive linemen on the current two-deep are freshmen. But Davis is going to need to make plays with his own willpower too. Whether it’s fighting for extra yardage on third-and-short or bouncing off would-be tacklers for big gains, Davis’ tough running sets the tone, extends drives, and opens up the passing game as well.
Of Davis’ 1,348 rushing yards this season, 891 have come after contact. He is averaging 3.91 yards after contact.
Better QB Play
This game will come down to who wins in the trenches and which quarterback plays better. Neither QB may end up throwing 25+ times Sunday, but both will have to make plays with their arms in big moments as the defenses stress stopping the run.
Mark Gronowski is completing 65% of his passes for 2,744 yards, 23 TDs, and five interceptions this season. He has also scored 11 TDs on the ground. His PFF passing grade of 83.6 is 18th in the FCS while Miller’s passing grade of 70.5 is outside of the Top 50.
The winning teams in Frisco have had the better QB play that day. That will be the case again Sunday.
