It’s mailbag time!
We didn’t do this one formally; these all came from DMs from fans who asked to stay anonymous rather than publish their names.
Plus, I added one question that everyone seems to ask me. Let’s get into it as we talk football, life, and data!
1) Are you buying the Sacramento State to the MAC rumor mill?
A: I am… not. In this day and age of collegiate athletics, anything can happen, but this one doesn’t add up for me. I think this rumor is a bit of a red herring because it starts with the wrong question.
Why would the MAC need to expand here?
The only real reason would be if they were preparing to lose a school. Realignment? I don’t think that’s the driver. If there were an FBS league at risk of losing a program that drops football (or goes D2) — which has been quietly floated in some circles — I wouldn’t be shocked if it came from the MAC. Not naming names, and I don’t have deep sourcing here, but there’s a pulse.
Back to Sacramento State.
If you stack Sac State next to a comparable candidate — say Tarleton State — Tarleton is a far more realistic regional fit. It’s a lot easier to get MAC teams to Texas (still a stretch, but doable) than to Sacramento. Adding Sacramento essentially turns the MAC into a coast-to-coast, ACC-style operation… for football only. It just doesn’t track.
The current MAC TV deal runs through the 2026-27 season, so don’t be surprised if more rumors heat up surrounding this conference. A possible pitch from Sac State to the MAC could be capitalizing on its location for ideal late-night TV windows. Back-to-back midweek MACtion games, with Sac State hosting the later game?
Now again, this is all in a hypothetical world — is it football-only or not? I think Tarleton would jump at the chance if there were a path for their other sports. Honestly, they might jump at it even if it were football-only.
From the FRS (Financial Reporting System), which is the closest standard we have without fudging too many numbers — trust me, numbers still get fudged, but it’s solid for comparison — here’s a quick look at some 2024 data:
Student Fees Support
Tarleton State: $11,302,884
Sacramento State: $10,229,193
Direct Institutional Support
Tarleton State: $12,389,218
Sacramento State: $16,772,218
Indirect Institutional Support Revenue
Tarleton State: $0
Sacramento State: $10,572,203
These, plus another dozen line items that sit in a similar range, bring total reported revenues to:
Tarleton State: $28,200,122
Sacramento State: $43,065,314
You might be asking: What the hell is indirect institutional revenue?
Think of it as costs covered or services provided by the institution but not charged to athletics. Things like HR, accounting, IT, facilities maintenance, academic services, security, risk management, and utilities. Sometimes this also includes loans or service payments on facilities.
Outside of that line, both schools are very similar in fundraising, sports camp revenue, and so on. The only notable outlier is Tarleton, which has about $500K more in royalties, licensing, advertising, and sponsorships.
All that to be said … take it for what it’s worth.
One thing that does complicate Sac State right now is the stadium situation. They’ve struck a deal with Cal Expo for a $172 million project, down from the original $300 million plan, but the last meaningful update I’ve seen was in October. It has been awfully quiet for a project of that magnitude. As of late 2025, the Cal Expo board approved exclusive negotiations with plans for ~22,000 seats, expandable to 40–50K if they move to FBS. Target opening is fall 2026.
Not saying that’s holding them back, but the Hornets have been talking a lot without much visible momentum. President Wood has said it before — you just have to win.
Q: Is North Alabama for real at the D1 level? What’s their ceiling?
A: I’ve spent some time around UNA the last few months while doing a project with them and attending a game. They’ve got real ingredients for a high ceiling, but a few things still need to happen — all very achievable.
Like I mentioned with Sacramento State, facilities matter. UNA is bringing a brand new stadium online in 2026. Renovations are usually the trend these days, but this is a true new build — roughly $70 million, 10,000+ seats with future expansion potential, a new weight room, a dozen suites, and a big focus on premium seating. They’ve also upgraded several other sports recently.
Another key piece — if you’ve ever read my Search Party series — is airport access. Northwest Alabama Regional isn’t huge, but the puddle jumpers to Charlotte for $69 one-way are a major asset. You can get recruits in. You can get coaching candidates in. It matters more than most people realize. (And yes, I know I am behind on a few search parties!)
And then there’s the leadership. Dr. Josh Looney is hungry, energetic, and experienced. He’s been a D2 AD at Missouri Western and worked in advancement, and anybody who understands hiring in higher ed knows how valuable that is.
All that said — they need to win. They need sustained investment and continued momentum. But the ingredients are absolutely there.
Q: What’s up with the media deal between the Pac-12 and USA Network?
A: I’ve gotten a lot of DMs about this. I’m cautiously optimistic. They’ll get the exposure they want, but I still don’t believe the money is as high as fans think. Folks in the industry have quietly echoed that as well. It will be higher than what they’d have received in the Mountain West.
Would a reverse merger have produced more value? Maybe. But we’re way past that now.
The interesting part is the asterisks on the graphics. The way I read it: Pac-12 Enterprises will do most of the production work. USA Network provides the talent and the platform — similar to the ESPN3/ESPN+ model where the school handles everything and ESPN is simply the distribution channel. That’s a lot of work and manpower … but it was expected because the P12 Enterprises are already on board.
I think you’ll see the Mountain West take non-traditional windows to maximize dollars, while the Pac-12 prioritizes exposure. Neither is wrong — it’s just a philosophical difference.
Overall grade: incomplete.
We don’t know the money yet. It’s disappointing as a fan of West Coast/Rocky Mountain football, but we’ll get numbers eventually. Post-settlement, most likely. And even if they don’t release them publicly, once FRS reports for public institutions are released, it’s not hard to reverse-engineer payouts.
Q: Which coaches do you see on the move in the offseason at all levels?
A: Man, loaded question. A lot can change in the final weeks of the year. For some reason, this feels like one of those offseasons when the typical, truly qualified candidates are few and the number of openings is too many — especially at the FBS level.
I feel like every school, even loosely tied to Penn State, has already handed out an extension. And yes, I know Lane Kiffin hasn’t signed one, but Mississippi has some interesting contract rules. If you’re not getting an extension right now, shame on your agent.
At the non-P4 ranks, I think the trickle-down effect is very real. The trend seems to be staying put rather than jumping for hope. FCS-to-FBS moves are always intriguing, but with how chaotic the FBS/P4 landscape has been, it might be smarter to wait a year and see which schools are actually committed to investing in athletics.
OK, you asked for names.
I could be wrong here, but I think you’ll see Bryan Harsin, Paul Chryst, Ed Orgeron, and Nick Rolovich all more in play than maybe an Eck, Plough, or Mullen. If there is an FCS coach who moves, I think it’s Tim Polasek. The timing and their success/playoff timing make it a tough situation, but that’s not a bad thing for the Bison.
Q: Where do you get your information from?
A: Great question. Part of it is just knowing good people in the industry. I still work as a contract consultant for schools across the country — mostly revenue-generation and marketing projects — and right now I’m helping run a D1 women’s soccer head-coaching search. You get to know people. Our team tries to be a one-stop shop for the problems athletic departments face, and I think we do a pretty solid job at an affordable rate.
I also rely heavily on FOIA/open-records documents and the Extra Points Library, which houses 10,000+ contracts and documents. That helps me compare schools, analyze trends, and understand what’s really happening.
Side pitch: It’s affordable, super helpful. If you’re in the industry and want more data, send me a message.
