“You’re either a contender or pretender in the month of November”
These words from Howard head coach Larry Scott couldn’t be any truer. With the end of the regular season drawing closer, the front-runners within their respective conference championship races have separated themselves from the also-rans.
Currently, six teams from the MEAC and SWAC still have an opportunity to clinch a berth in the Celebration Bowl this December.
Jackson State and Prairie View A&M control their postseason hopes. With wins this weekend, both teams can secure their place in the SWAC Title Game as Eastern and Western Divisional Champions respectively. Florida A&M and Alcorn State still have a chance to win their respective divisions, but they will both need help to clinch a title game berth.
The team to watch in the SWAC is FAMU. Based upon conference records, the Rattlers have the weakest strength of schedule (.154) for the remainder of the season. Going undefeated during this stretch not only keeps them in the hunt for a divisional title – needing JSU to lose to Southern this week and Alcorn State the next – but a nine-win FAMU team keeps them in FCS playoff consideration.
In the MEAC, South Carolina State has already clinched at least a share of the conference championship, while Norfolk State and North Carolina Central are still in the running to claim a share as well. Due to the various tie-breaking scenarios, NCCU will miss out on being one of the first teams to start and finish their season in Atlanta, but they can still end 2021sharing the moniker of “champion.”
Last week, five of the 12 HBCU FCS matchups ended with the team that had the worst record walking away with the win. Because of those upsets (and me taking a few chances), not only did teams lose out on postseason possibilities, but my record for last week’s picks also fell to 4-8.
My overall record this season is 67-38.
For the remainder of the season, I will only break down matchups that involve title contenders, but I will still make predictions for every HBCU FCS game that played.
Wanna see who I picked this week? Well, let’s go.
Non-Conference
North Carolina A&T (4-5) vs. South Carolina State (5-4)
Saturday, November 13, 1:30 PM (ESPN+)
The Aggies are returning to the Palmetto State in consecutive weeks to face an old foe in SC State. Currently riding a four-game win streak, their first since 2018, the Bulldogs have already earned a share of the MEAC title. Contrarily, A&T is looking to avoid going sub-.500 for the first time since former head coach Rod Broadway’s first season in 2011.
Both teams have seen their offensive production take a dip in recent weeks. Averaging 30.25 PPG in their first four games, SC State is putting up 19.8 per in the last five, including last week’s 15-12 win over Howard.
The Aggies started their season scoring 30.2 PPG in their first five games. After defeating North Alabama in the first week of October, A&T has been held to 11.5 per in their last four, but they were able to score 21 in their win over Charleston Southern.
This matchup doesn’t have any postseason implications, but it is still a rivalry game. SCSU will look to win five-in-a-row for the first time since 2013. Oddly enough, that’s the last time the Bulldogs have defeated the Aggies.
With it being Senior Day against an old nemesis, is there a chance that this could become a trap game for SCSU with the more important matchup against Norfolk State looming next week?
Aggies 20, Bulldogs 17
Morgan State (1-8) vs. Albany (1-8)
Saturday, November 13, 1:00 PM
Both teams finally earned their first win of the season last week. I’m a little concerned that the Morgan defense is going to have a tough time slowing down Albany RB Karl Mofor who rushed for 222 yards on 45 carries and two touchdowns against New Hampshire.
Great Danes 17, Bears 10
Big South
Hampton (4-5, 2-3 Big South) vs. Campbell (3-6, 2-3 Big South)
Saturday, November 13, 1:00 (ESPN+)
The Camels are on the verge of finishing the season with a sub-.500 record for the first time since 2015 while the Pirates are looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. Let’s see if the Big South’s worst rush defense against conference opponents can slow down the Hampton ground game led by RB Elijah Burris and QB Jett Duffey.
Pirates 30, Camels 24
MEAC
Norfolk State (6-3, 2-1 MEAC) vs. Delaware State (4-5, 1-2 MEAC)
Saturday, November 13, 1:00 PM (ESPN+)
Both teams are coming off untimely losses but none more than Delaware State’s. The Hornets, who haven’t won more than three games in a season since 2013, are now eliminated from championship contention. At the same time, the Spartan’s loss hasn’t dashed their postseason hopes, but DSU will look to play spoiler on Saturday.
“We’ve got our work cut out for us,” Delaware State head coach Rod Milstead said of Norfolk State. “They’re very methodical in what they do offensively,” Milstead continued. “They have a quarterback that is probably the most seasoned in the MEAC and he does a very good job of managing their offense.”
NSU quarterback Juwan Carter does lead the MEAC in total offense – 275.1 yards per game and 24 total touchdowns – but it was RB J.J. Davis’ 217 yards, three touchdown performance that aided in the Spartans rushing for 328 yards last week. Let’s see how they fare against the best rushing defense in the conference.
Spartans 30, Hornets 17
North Carolina Central (4-5, 2-1) vs. Howard (2-7, 1-3)
Saturday, November 13, 1:00 PM (ESPN+)
These two young teams are looking to finish the season strong, but Central still has championship aspirations. Things might be a tough outing for the Bison this week. The playing status of Bison QB Quinton Williams is unknown. Without him, Howard was held to 12 points and 179 yards of offense. This week, they’ll face the best scoring defense in the MEAC.
Eagles 24, Bison 10
OVC
Austin Peay (4-5, 2-2 OVC) vs. Tennessee State (5-4, 3-2 OVC)
Saturday, November 13, 3:00 PM (ESPN+)
Even though their four-game win streak was snapped last Saturday by UT Martin, Tennessee State still has a chance to win six games in a season for the first time since 2017. It doesn’t hurt that the team you defeated to spark that win streak is coming to town. The last time they played; Austin Peay gave up 485 yards of total offense. Let’s see if the combination of Hickbottom and Starling can repeat this performance.
Tigers 24, Governors 17
SWAC
#24 Prairie View A&M (7-1, 6-0) vs. Alcorn State (5-4, 4-2)
Saturday, November 13, 3:00 PM
The winner will take a step closer to being the West Division champion. The Panthers can lock up the division with a win. Alcorn State can clinch the division by winning out and a PVAMU loss to MVSU in two weeks.
Both offenses are generating over 30 points and 430 yards of offense per game, offense will not be lacking in this matchup. Even though Alcorn is averaging 33 points in their last two games, they’ve been on the losing end of both matchups.
Losing back-to-back games for the first time since 2017, the Braves are looking to avoid their first three-game skid since 2016. If Alcorn wants to snap this losing streak and stay in title contention, they can’t give up big plays to Prairie View.
Panthers 37, Braves 35
Florida A&M (7-2, 5-1) vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (2-7, 1-5)
Saturday, November 13, 3:00 PM (ESPN+)
UAPB QB Skyler Perry exploded for 309 yards of total offense and four touchdowns in their win over Grambling last week. It’s the third time this season Perry has combined for over 300 yards in a game, but the first time the Golden Lions earned a win behind that feat.
After winning their first game since the season opener, how will UAPB fare against a team that doesn’t want to be eliminated from postseason play?
The Rattlers are allowing only 17.3 points per game against SWAC opponents. It would help if UAPB can find a way to score more than 21 points, their average output in conference play, but FAMU is undefeated (2-0) against conference opponents when they have scored over 17 points.
Rattlers 31, Golden Lions 17
#15/#18 Jackson State (8-1, 6-0) vs. Southern (4-5, 3-3)
Saturday, November 13, 7:00 PM (ESPN3)
The Tigers move one step closer to claiming the East Division title for the first time since 2013.
We already know that the Tigers are allowing under 14 points per game, the fifth-best in the nation. I can talk about how JSU freshman QB has averaged 270 total yards per game and scored 15 total touchdowns in the Tigers’ last four games. Hey, Tiger RB Peytton Pickett has become the second rusher to gain over 100 yards on the ground this season. The BIGGEST stat is that the Jags have not lost back-to-back games so far this season!
That ends Saturday.
Tigers 31, Jaguars 14
Bethune-Cookman (1-8, 1-5 SWAC) vs. Grambling State (3-6, 2-4 SWAC)
Saturday, November 13, Noon
This is not the season either program anticipated. Both teams are currently on the path to finishing the year sub-.500. It’ll be the first such season for the Wildcats since 2016. Not including Spring 2021, haven’t won less than five games in a season since 2013.
With title hopes completely diminished, the bright spot of the year would be to beat rival Southern in a few weeks. Hopefully, the Tigers won’t overlook BCU by being too focused on the Bayou Classic.
Wildcats 28, Tigers 24
Alabama State (3-5, 2-4) vs. Mississippi Valley State (2-7, 1-5)
Saturday, November 13, 2:00 PM (MVSU Athletics YouTube)
Both teams have lost four of their last five games. Injuries to MVSU quarterback Jalani Eason has led to him splitting snaps with Conor Regan. The Delta Devils haven’t beaten the Hornets since 2009. If interim head coach Travis Pearson wants to earn his first win and extend that streak over MVSU, they’ll have to continue to protect QB Ryan Nettles and slow down MVSU RB Caleb Johnson.
Hornets 24, Delta Devils 21
Alabama A&M (5-3, 3-3) vs. Texas Southern (2-6, 2-4)
Saturday, November 13, 3:00 PM (ESPN+)
We know how good Alabama A&M quarterback Aqeel Glass can be. He should thrive against the worst pass defense in the SWAC against conference opponents. We also know how bad the Bulldogs defense can be in the most inopportune times. I won’t hit the “Upset Button” just yet but keep an eye on TSU freshman quarterback Andrew Body. Even though he was stymied by Jackson State last week (115 total yards, 0 touchdowns), Body averaged 358 yards of total offense and tallied nine total touchdowns against three interceptions in the five games prior.
Bulldogs 30, Tigers 28
