The 2022 FCS playoff bracket has 11 auto-bids and 13 at-large bids. Eight teams will be seeded with first-round byes. The national championship game is scheduled for Sunday, Jan. 8, in Frisco, Texas. It will air on ABC.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble.
Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
Interview with Playoff Committee Chair Jermaine Truax
The Field
2021 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 7/8 seeds correct, 24/24 teams correct
Seeds
These are playoff predictions and don’t reflect my current Top 25. The numbers associated with teams may not match where I currently rank them on my ballot.
1. Sac State
2. SDSU
3. Montana State
4. NDSU
5. Samford
6. William & Mary
7. Weber State
8. Holy Cross
Auto-Bids
*Clinched
ASUN-WAC – Abilene Christian
Big Sky – Sac State
Big South – NC A&T
CAA – William & Mary
*MVFC – SDSU
*NEC – Saint Francis
OVC – SEMO
*Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Davidson
*SoCon – Samford
Southland – Southeastern Louisiana University
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
Montana State (seed)
NDSU (seed)
Weber State (seed)
UIW
Elon
Richmond
Furman
Chattanooga
New Hampshire
21. Delaware
22. Idaho
23. North Dakota
24. Montana
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. Fordham
26. UC Davis
27. Eastern Kentucky
28. Mercer
29. Florida A&M
30. Rhode Island
31. Youngstown State
32. Austin Peay
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket is regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee must utilize as many bus trips as possible in the first round. Bus trips (400 miles or less) are Saint Francis-Delaware, Davidson-Furman, NC A&T-Elon, SEMO-Chattanooga, UIW-Abilene Christian.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Non-conference opponents who did play each other in the regular season can be matched up in the opening round.
Once first-round teams are paired up via proximity, they will be slotted with the seeds that are (again) as close as possible regionally.
The home team in a game between two unseeded teams is determined by who submitted the higher bid to host.
The order of seeds is NOT determined by regionalization. The seeds also can’t be adjusted once set to even out the sides of the bracket.
Here is a Twitter thread on how the seeding process works.
The Explanation
As stated above, keep in mind this does factor in future games.
Seeds
The committee’s opinion may mirror what voters have felt for most of this season with SDSU No. 1 and Sac State No. 2. But they also may dive into resumes a bit more, and Sac State has the edge there.
If Sac State beats UC Davis, it will be 11-0 with an FBS win (Colorado State) and four now-ranked wins (No. 13 Montana, No. 21 Idaho, No. 7 Weber, No. 24 UC Davis). Sac State’s Massey projected strength of schedule will be No. 4, one spot ahead of SDSU.
SDSU has a Week 12 bye and finishes 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS. It owns three now-ranked wins (No. 4 NDSU, No. 16 UND, No. 24 UC Davis). Its SOS is No. 5, one spot behind Sac State.
Montana State looks to secure a Top 3 seed by beating Montana in Bozeman. The Bobcats would then finish 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS with three now-ranked wins (No. 7 Weber, No. 24 UC Davis, No. 13 Montana). Its projected SOS is No. 15.
NDSU or Samford will fight over the No. 4 and 5 seeds if they both win. Samford would have the better resume, but NDSU’s two close losses to SDSU and P5 Arizona (plus the brand name and being the defending champs) may carry weight. Samford would be 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS with three now-ranked wins (No. 12 Furman, No. 15 Chattanooga, No. 19 Mercer). Its projected SOS is No. 18. NDSU would be 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with only one now-ranked win (No. 16 UND). Its projected SOS is No. 21.
The winner of William & Mary at Richmond will be a seed. I lean the Tribe in this one. William & Mary with a win would be 10-1 overall with an FBS win (Charlotte) and two now-ranked wins (No. 20 Delaware, No. 11 Richmond). Its projected SOS of No. 50 may prevent it from jumping NDSU or Samford.
Weber State should win at NAU and would finish 9-2 with eight D1 wins, an FBS win (Utah State), and two now-ranked wins (No. 13 Montana, No. 24 UC Davis). Its projected SOS is No. 12. Having eight D1 wins may drop Weber below teams with 10 D1 wins.
Holy Cross looks to finish 11-0 with an FBS win and a now-ranked win over No. 21 Fordham. That looks to be good enough for a seed. But with a strength of schedule projected to be No. 79, Holy Cross’ single-digit wins over unranked Harvard, Lafayette, and Bryant may make the committee wonder how good this team is.
Teams like UIW or Richmond could certainly bounce Holy Cross out of the seeds.
Auto-Bids
A few notes…
SDSU, Saint Francis, Holy Cross, and Samford have clinched their auto-bids.
Big South — NC A&T goes to Gardner-Webb with the winner earning the AQ.
Pioneer — Dayton goes to Davidson with the winner earning the AQ.
Sac State looks to have the AQ tiebreaker edge on Montana State if both go 8-0 in the Big Sky.
I’ve stopped trying to project the ASUN-WAC auto-bid and just go with who’s at the top of the most recent computerized ranking.
The OVC auto-bid will come down to a coin flip if UT Martin and SEMO finish undefeated in OVC play. They do not play each other since Lindenwood’s late addition resulted in each conference member having a game taken off its schedule.
At-Large Bids
After the four at-large bids that are seeds…
UIW will have a strong argument to be a seed. It should beat NW State to finish 10-1 overall with nine D1 wins, one FBS win (Nevada), but no currently-ranked wins (SIU is no longer ranked). Its projected SOS will be No. 58 and you could make the argument that UIW is more deserving of a seed than Holy Cross. I just think HC’s 11-0 record with an FBS win will stick out more to the committee.
Elon has a Week 12 bye and has a great case for a bid at 8-3 overall (eight D1 wins) and three now-ranked wins (No. 8 W&M, No. 11 Richmond, No. 20 Delaware).
Richmond also looks to have locked in a bid by beating ranked Delaware to hit eight D1 wins (8-2 overall) with two now-ranked wins (No. 18 UNH, No. 20 Delaware). If the Spiders beat W&M, they can earn a seed.
Furman should beat Wofford to finish 9-2 with eight D1 wins (8-1 vs. the FCS). It has two now-ranked wins over No. 15 Chattanooga and No. 19 Mercer.
Chattanooga should hit eight D1 wins this week by winning at WCU. The Mocs would be 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with a now-ranked win over No. 19 Mercer.
New Hampshire should hit eight D1 wins by winning at Maine. UNH would be 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with a now-ranked win over No. 14 Elon, who also should be in the field.
Delaware can also get to 8-3 (eight D1 wins) if it beats Villanova, featuring an FBS win over Navy. However, the Blue Hens have the fifth best argument to get in from the CAA since their best FCS win is over Rhody (no longer ranked) and they lost to the rest of its now-ranked opponents (No. 8 W&M, No. 14 Elon, No. 11 Richmond). We’ll see if there is room for five CAA teams.
Idaho just lost decisively to UC Davis, who wasn’t ranked at the time. The Vandals should win at Idaho State to finish 7-4 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS. Their win over ranked Montana should carry enough weight to get them in, as the Griz will also have an argument to get in the field either at 8-3 or 7-4.
North Dakota could get a seed if it upsets NDSU in Fargo. A projected loss has UND at 7-4 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS. While UND won’t have any now-ranked wins (has two at the time of the game over UNI and Missouri State), its projected SOS of No. 2 should really stand out for the committee among a handful of seven-D1-win teams.
If Montana beats Montana State on the road, the Griz are in. A projected loss has the Griz 7-4 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins. If the last spot was between a 7-4 Montana team and a 9-2 Fordham team, the irony is that neither would have quality wins and both would have quality losses. The committee does factor in injuries, and Montana lost by one score at highly-ranked Sac State and Weber State without starting QB Lucas Johnson (Johnson is questionable to play at MSU after a leg injury suffered this last week). Projected strength of schedules are Montana No. 16 and Fordham No. 78. I think the committee would lean toward Montana over Fordham even with two fewer D1 wins. A 9-2 team left out of the bracket has happened before (McNeese in 2017).
Bubble Teams
I went over Fordham’s scenario in the paragraph above.
UC Davis will get in if it beats No. 2 Sac State on the road. A projected loss will still have Davis in consideration at 6-5 overall with a ranked win over 7-4 Idaho and four close FCS losses to highly-ranked teams. But a 6-5 mark will be very tough to crack this bubble.
EKU will have a stronger case than many bubble teams. If it wins vs. Kennesaw, it will finish 7-4 overall with an FBS win (Bowling Green) and a ranked win over SEMO, who should be in the field as the OVC’s AQ or an at-large bid. EKU does have an FBS loss (42-34 to Eastern Michigan) and two losses to FBS-transitioning teams Sam Houston (25-17) and Jacksonville State (42-17), but the committee will still consider those last two as FCS losses. SHSU, for instance, may have more scholarships as it transitions up but is redshirting a lot of key players. I don’t see EKU knocking Idaho, UND, or Montana out of the field, though, with a worse-ranked SOS.
Mercer can make the bracket if wins at No. 9 Samford this week to hit eight D1 wins. If they lose, Mercer may be left out at seven D1 wins due to zero ranked victories and a projected SOS behind UND, Idaho, and Montana.
Florida A&M will have a similar resume as last year’s at-large bid team if it wins out. FAMU would be 9-2 overall with eight D1 wins. One loss will be scrapped against FBS UNC. The other loss is 59-3 to now-No. 10 Jackson State, compared to last year’s 7-6 loss to JSU. With a projected SOS ranked No. 109 and a more packed bubble, plus last year’s 38-14 first-round loss to SLU not helping its case, FAMU’s chances of making the playoffs are smaller than last season unless upsets go their way.
Rhody can hit seven D1 wins by beating UAlbany. It does have one ranked win over Elon, but the overall body of work has Rhody as the sixth-best argument to get in the field out of the CAA, and six bids just seem unlikely.
YSU can hit seven D1 wins by beating SIU. But no ranked wins and losing to a struggling Mo State team this last week make for an uphill battle to get a bid.
Austin Peay is a part of the ASUN-WAC. This is a solid team but already has two conference losses, making it a challenging road for a bid. The Govs are 7-2 vs. the FCS and go to FBS Alabama to finish the year. Not an ideal finish. APSU does have a head-to-head win over EKU, another bubble team. But overall body of work and a projected SOS of No. 42 won’t make Austin Peay stand out enough in a sea of seven and eight D1-win bubble teams.
If SEMO and UT Martin finish undefeated in the OVC, the tiebreaker would move down to a coin flip since they would have similar records against the next-best teams in the standings. If SEMO gets the OVC auto-bid coin flip, UT Martin likely won’t get an at-large bid with its non-conference losses to now-unranked Missouri State and Kennesaw State. If UT Martin gets the OVC auto-bid coin flip, SEMO would have a stronger chance for an at-large bid since SEMO would hit nine D1 wins if it wins out.
