The 2022 FCS playoffs begin this weekend and feature some intriguing matchups.
Who advances to the second round to take on the seeds? Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2022 record: 77-36
2019-2021 record: 244-115
First Round
Idaho at Southeastern Louisiana University
Southeastern hasn’t performed well in the playoffs against teams from stronger conferences, losing 73-28 at Montana in 2019 and 59-20 at James Madison last season. Those teams were also seeds and on the road for the Lions.
But Idaho presents the same problems: a balanced offense, plus a physical front seven that Southeastern isn’t used to seeing during the regular season. Idaho has some dudes at linebacker (Fa’Avae Fa’Avae and Paul Moala) and is also No. 16 in the FCS defending the pass (186.6 YPG). They’ll defend a Southeastern offense scoring 33.8 PPG.
First-year head coach Jason Eck knows what it takes to win in the playoffs, where the play on the field gets taken to the next level and small things make a bigger difference in wins and losses. The Vandals will be able to get their points while getting stops on defense when it needs them most late in the game.
Prediction: Idaho 35-28
SEMO at Montana
SEMO QB Paxton DeLaurent (2,155 yards, 17 TDs, 4 INT.) has been in a walking boot the last two games, making SEMO rely on standout RB Geno Hess (1,446 yards, 19 TDs) even more. Montana may also be without its starting QB as Lucas Johnson went down again with a leg injury last week at Montana State.
The Griz run defense did not look good against Montana State last week, so Hess could have a big day. But Montana is also at home, in front of a big night crowd, and in the cold. Plus, SEMO’s OL is not at the level of MSU’s. The Montana defense should have a better day, and the offense should be able to do enough with or without Johnson to get a win. The Griz have the physical advantage here to control the line of scrimmage and the game.
Prediction: Montana 24-14
Gardner-Webb at Eastern Kentucky
EKU got the ASUN-WAC auto-bid but would have had a good argument for an at-large bid too. The Colonels have a close FBS loss at EMU, an FBS win at Bowling Green, and a win over OVC champ/ranked SEMO. Gardner-Webb won the Big South title.
EKU will be too talented and too explosive on offense. Gardner-Webb allowed 40 and 35 points against two of the better offenses in the Big South (Bryant and Campbell). EKU QB Parker McKinney has thrown for 3,502 yards, 28 TDs, and seven interceptions while rushing for 382 yards and eight scores.
Prediction: Eastern Kentucky 35-21
North Dakota at Weber State
Weber is a scary unseeded team that was just outside of getting a first-round bye. Weber just allowed 285 passing yards at NAU, but overall has been strong on defense. The Wildcats are No. 6 in scoring defense (18.3 PPG) and No. 11 in passing defense (177.5 YPG). Cornerbacks Maxwell Anderson and Eddie Heckard are as good a combo as it gets in the FCS.
They have the talent back there to slow down a Tommy Schuster (2,546 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INT.) led offense averaging 232.2 passing yards per game. Weber also has a stout and physical front seven to contain Tyler Hoosman (885 yards rushing, 12 TDs).
Prediction: Weber 31-28
Fordham at New Hampshire
Expect some points in this one. Fordham has scored big on everyone, from FBS Ohio to conference foe and seeded Holy Cross to three CAA opponents Monmouth, UAlbany, and Stony Brook. Fordham is No. 2 behind UIW in FCS scoring offense, averaging 50.2 points per game. Tim DeMorat has been elite, throwing for more than 4,500 yards with 53 TDs to eight interceptions.
UNH, a CAA member, hasn’t played too strong on defense this year, allowing 26.5 PPG, including 40 and 41 in two of its last three games. UNH needed overtime to beat unranked Maine 42-21.
But Fordham is very much gettable on defense, allowing 34.7 PPG. Dylan Laube can really make a team hurt in several years, and he leads the FCS with 179.2 all-purpose yards per game. UNH will be tougher than a majority of Fordham’s opponents this season, but I don’t think the Wildcats can keep pace with this Fordham offense.
Prediction: Fordham 42-38
Saint Francis at Delaware
This is not a CAA over NEC gimme.
SFU went 9-2 with two close losses to FBS Akron (overtime) and ranked Richmond (by 10 points). Delaware slid its way into the bracket, losing three of its last four games, including by 20 at Elon and by seven at unranked Villanova.
SFU can put points up, scoring 40+ five times this year and putting up 50+ three times.
However, Delaware has one of the better defenses in the FCS, ranking No. 4 (16.2 points allowed per game). Johnny Buchanan is having a special season — 121 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, and one sack.
Prediction: Delaware 24-17
Davidson at Richmond
In its last two playoff appearances, Davidson has lost 49-14 to Jacksonville State in the spring and 48-21 to Kennesaw last fall. This year’s option attack does lead the FCS in rushing yards per game (350.5). But Richmond prides itself on a tough defense, allowing 20.3 PPG and 120.2 rushing yards a game, which is the 24th-best in the FCS. Tristan Wheeler is a veteran stud at LB and has 97 tackles and nine TFLs in 2022.
Richmond should be too much for non-scholarship Davidson. The unique offense maybe keeps it close for 1.5 quarters, but the Spiders will adjust on defense and will be too athletic on the edge offensively to make this a close game.
Prediction: Richmond 38-14
Elon at Furman
This looks to be the best matchup of the day. SoCon fans think the CAA is overrated. CAA fans think the SoCon is overrated. This game is a great measuring stick as Furman is the second-best SoCon team and Elon is the No. 2 or 3 CAA team.
Elon is tough to beat when it’s in a rhythm. The Phoenix also have had spurts of struggles. A two-game midseason losing streak was snapped to end the regular season on a three-game winning streak, including crushing Delaware 27-7. This is a very balanced squad (27.5 PPG on offense to 20.5 points allowed per game on defense). The rushing attack averages 159.2 YPG and the passing game is good for 231.5 YPG. RB Jalen Hampton is over 1,000 yards on the ground, but it’s the play of QB Matthew McKay (2,471 yards, 21 TDs, 4 INT.) that makes this offense go. When he’s on, this team can roll.
Furman has almost quietly had a fantastic year, finishing the regular season 9-2 and the only FCS loss being a one-score game vs. seeded Samford. The Paladins had great back-to-back ranked wins on Chattanooga and Mercer before putting 63 points on Wofford last weekend. Furman has been great on defense, allowing less than 20 PPG. Tyler Huff’s numbers won’t pop off the page with 1,888 yards, 13 TDs, and six INT. But he operates it well and utilizes weapons like TE Ryan Miller. RB Dominic Roberto (963 yards, 10 TDs) needs to get going on the ground to tighten up defenses for the passing offense to be at its best.
It looks like an even matchup. Furman being at home gives it a slight edge. All three of Elon’s losses (one being 42-21 to FBS Vanderbilt) are on the road.
Prediction: Furman 28-27
