A Top 5 FCS showdown occurs this weekend in the Big Sky when No. 5 Weber State hosts No. 2 Sacramento State.
Weber State is 7-1 overall, featuring a 35-7 FBS win over Utah State, one non-counter win against Western Oregon, two then-ranked wins over No. 24 EWU and No. 11 Montana, one now-ranked win against No. 16 Montana, and its lone loss to No. 3 Montana State. Weber’s current Massey strength of schedule is No. 10.
Sac State is 8-0 overall, featuring a 41-10 FBS win over Colorado State and two then-ranked wins (No. 7 Montana, No. 14 Idaho), which are now No. 16 Montana and No. 15 Idaho. Its current Massey SOS is No. 13.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams for playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
If Weber State Wins…
The Wildcats will make it through their three-game stretch of playing ranked teams with a 2-1 record. And all signs would point to them finishing the regular season 10-1, assuming they handle business vs. Idaho State and at Northern Arizona.
At 10-1, Weber would own nine D1 victories, one being a dominant FBS win and two coming against ranked teams in the playoff picture (Montana, Sac State). Weber also owns a win over UC Davis, who could return to the Top 25 and be in a playoff position if it wins out. Handling its FBS opponent and beating No. 2 Sac State, plus having a projected season-end SOS of No. 13 would probably mean the playoff committee doesn’t punish Weber for its non-counter win.
A 10-1 Weber squad has a great argument for the No. 3 seed, edging out NDSU. South Dakota State would be the No. 1 seed if the Jacks win out and with this Sac State loss. Montana State would be the No. 2 seed if the Bobcats win out to finish 10-0 vs. the FCS, owning a win over Weber and beating Montana a day before Selection Sunday. If the Bison win out, they’d have a 9-2 record (9-1 vs. the FCS, loss to SDSU) with nine D1 wins (the same number as Weber). NDSU would possibly only have one ranked win if UND is still in the Top 25 for the regular-season finale. The Bison still have to go to SIU, but the Salukis fell out of the Top 25 this week. Illinois State or YSU, two teams NDSU has beaten, could win its way into the Top 25 by season’s end.
With Weber’s projected season-end SOS of No. 13 compared to NDSU’s No. 24, the same number of D1 wins as NDSU, an FBS win, and more ranked wins than NDSU, it looks like a 10-1 Wildcats team should be the No. 3 seed ahead of NDSU (and behind SDSU and MSU if they win out).
How far would a losing Sac State team drop in the seeds?
It depends on how the final two games go. At Portland State should be a win but isn’t a gimme. And a home game vs. a UC Davis team that could be in a win-and-in situation is going to be a battle.
Let’s say Sac State wins those two…
At 10-1, Sac State also has a strong argument to be ahead of NDSU and get the No. 4 seed — behind No. 3 Weber, behind No. 2 MSU if it wins out, and behind No. 1 SDSU if it wins out.
This could bump the defending national champs NDSU to the No. 5 seed if the Bison win out to go 9-2 (9-1 vs. the FCS). As stated above, NDSU would possibly own just one ranked win over UND (and maybe Illinois State or YSU by season’s end) and have a season-end SOS of No. 24. Compare that to a 10-1 Sac State team with a blowout FBS win, two ranked wins over Montana and Idaho, two more wins against possible playoff-potential teams UNI and UC Davis, plus a projected season-end SOS of No. 7 … and a 10-1 Sac State team has a better resume than the Bison.
Weber beats Sac State, then both win out … SDSU wins out … Montana State wins out … NDSU wins out
Projected Seeds:
1. SDSU
2. Montana State
3. Weber State
4. Sac State
5. NDSU
If Sac State Wins…
The Hornets have an argument to jump SDSU for the No. 1 seed if they win out.
Sac State would be 11-0 with the blowout FBS win, three ranked wins over teams vying for playoff spots (Montana, Idaho, and Weber), plus quality wins over UC Davis and UNI, two potential bubble teams. SDSU would be 10-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS. The Jacks would have two ranked wins over teams in the playoff picture (UND, NDSU), including knocking the Bison out of the No. 1 ranking in Fargo. SDSU would also have quality wins over UC Davis and UNI (just like Sac State) along with a win over Illinois State in mid-November (who may be a playoff-potential team).
SDSU’s projected SOS is No. 6, and Sac State’s is No. 7. That’s neck-and-neck for the No. 1 seed, but Sac State’s FBS win and potentially one more ranked win could be the deciding factor. Of course, Sac State needs to handle business at Portland State and vs. UC Davis after beating Weber to secure a Top 2 seed and home-field advantage.
A losing Weber team would finish 9-2 overall (assuming it beats Idaho State and NAU) with eight D1 wins, featuring a decisive FBS victory and one ranked win over a playoff-potential team (Montana). Possibly two if UC Davis makes a run.
Weber would probably be seeded outside the Top 4 right behind NDSU and then Montana State, SDSU, and Sac State. One could argue a 9-2 Weber team could be seeded above a 9-2 NDSU team, but the committee would likely favor a one-FCS-loss, nine-D1-win NDSU team with that L being a narrow one to SDSU. Other teams like an 11-0 Holy Cross with an FBS win, or a 10-1 UIW team with nine D1 wins and an FBS win, or a 10-0 vs. the FCS Samford team could knock a 9-2 Weber team to the No. 6 seed or lower. But a 9-2 Weber squad is somewhere in the seeds, as high as No. 4 or as low as No. 8.
Sac State beats Weber, then both win out … SDSU wins out … Montana State wins out … NDSU wins out
Projected Seeds:
1. Sac State or SDSU
2. Sac State or SDSU
3. Montana State
4. NDSU
5. Weber/Holy Cross/UIW/Samford
