The most anticipated FCS regular-season game in recent memory will be played Saturday when No. 1 South Dakota State visits No. 2 North Dakota State.
NDSU is 6-1 overall and 6-0 vs. the FCS with two then-ranked wins and three now-ranked wins (No. 23 ETSU, No. 21 Illinois State, No. 9 UND). The Bison’s strength of schedule is ranked 11th by Massey.
SDSU is 5-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS with two then-ranked wins, including over now-No. 14 UIW. Its Massey strength of schedule is 5th in the FCS.
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What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams for playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
If NDSU Wins…
For NDSU
The Bison will move to No. 1 in the Top 25 polls and is in a good position to earn a Top 2 playoff seed.
NDSU’s remaining schedule sets up nicely.
at Murray State
vs Northern Iowa
vs No. 20 Missouri State
at No. 4 South Dakota
Murray State and UNI should be wins. Missouri State will be a tougher challenge than initially thought, but it’s at the Fargodome. At USD will be a battle.
If the Bison run the table, they will be 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with potentially 5-6 ranked wins, highlighted by knocking off No. 1 SDSU. That will certainly be a Top 2 seed. The No. 1 seed would come down to an NDSU team with that resume vs. potentially a Montana State team that is 12-0 overall with 3-4 ranked wins and an FBS win.
If NDSU beats SDSU, then drops a game down the road, let’s say at USD, a 10-2 Bison squad that is 10-1 vs. the FCS with 5ish ranked wins would still probably be somewhere in the Top 4 seeds. It would depend on how SDSU and USD finish their seasons along with Montana State and UC Davis. Teams like Mercer, Villanova, or SEMO could finish undefeated vs. the FCS, but they may lack the ranked wins to jump a one-loss vs. the FCS NDSU or SDSU team.
RELATED: NDSU vs. SDSU Prediction
For SDSU
The Jackrabbits likely drop to No. 3 in the polls behind NDSU and Montana State.
SDSU’s second-half schedule is certainly tougher than the first half.
vs No. 4 South Dakota
vs Murray State
at No. 9 North Dakota
vs Southern Illinois
at No. 20 Missouri State
Back-to-back games vs. Top 5 teams is a tough draw, but getting USD at home is key. Murray State and SIU at home shouldn’t be issues. At UND is always dangerous, and at Missouri State is a tougher game than once anticipated.
If SDSU loses Saturday and then wins out, it will finish 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with possibly 5 ranked wins. That’s still a really good resume. It probably puts SDSU as the No. 3 seed behind NDSU and Montana State if both of those squads also win out.
If SDSU loses Saturday and drops another game, a 9-3 SDSU team that is 8-2 vs. the FCS with maybe four ranked wins may be pushed outside of the Top 4 seeds.
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If SDSU Wins…
For SDSU
SDSU stays atop the FCS polls and puts itself in a strong position to secure a Top 2 playoff seed and home-field advantage.
As mentioned above, the remaining schedule has its challenges, though.
vs No. 4 South Dakota
vs Murray State
at No. 9 North Dakota
vs Southern Illinois
at No. 20 Missouri State
The Jacks would have to avoid a hangover performance against another Top 5 team next week. Road trips to UND and Missouri State will be challenges as well.
If SDSU wins its remaining games, the Jacks will be 11-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS with 5-6 ranked wins. That is a Top 2 seed alongside a Montana State team that could finish 12-0 overall with 3-4 ranked wins and an FBS win.
If the Jacks win Saturday but then lose a game elsewhere, they will still be positioned well for a Top 4 seed. It would depend on how NDSU and USD finish their seasons along with Montana State and UC Davis. Teams like Mercer, Villanova, or SEMO could finish undefeated vs. the FCS, but they may lack the ranked wins to jump a one-loss vs. the FCS NDSU or SDSU team.
For NDSU
The Bison likely drop to No. 3 in the polls behind SDSU and Montana State.
NDSU’s remaining games are:
at Murray State
vs Northern Iowa
vs No. 20 Missouri State
at No. 4 South Dakota
That’s probably three straight wins after losing the Dakota Marker game, although Missouri State is looking pretty good. At USD will have a ton on the line.
If NDSU loses Saturday and then wins out, it would be 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with 4-5 ranked wins. That probably gets the Bison the No. 3 seed, depending on if SDSU and Montana State also win out. Teams like Mercer, Nova, and SEMO could finish undefeated vs. the FCS, but they may not have the resume to jump NDSU for the No. 3 seed.
If the Bison lose to SDSU and then drop another game, a 9-3 Bison squad that is 9-2 vs. the FCS and has 3-4 ranked win could get pushed outside of the Top 4 seeds.
