The 2024 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 10 auto-bids from 10 conferences and 14 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
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Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
The Field
2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. South Dakota State
4. Mercer
5. SEMO
6. Montana
7. UC Davis
8. Idaho
9. South Dakota
10. Richmond
11. UIW
12. Rhode Island
13. Tarleton State
14. Villanova
15. Stony Brook
16. Illinois State
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
CAA – Richmond
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Tarleton State
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
South Dakota State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
Montana (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Stony Brook (seed)
Illinois State (seed)
UT Martin
Last 4 In
Chattanooga
ETSU
Stephen F. Austin
Abilene Christian
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. Central Arkansas
26. William & Mary
27. Northern Arizona
28. Florida A&M
29. Southeastern Louisiana
30. Western Carolina
31. North Dakota
32. NC Central
33. Tennessee State
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. But the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.
The first round is still regionalized to save the NCAA on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the championship, the committee may allow a small seed adjustment in seeds 9-16 to avoid a conference having all its teams on the same side of the bracket.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
As stated above, keep in mind this does factor in future games.
No. 1 seed NDSU is 9-1 overall and 9-0 vs. the FCS with two games remaining vs. Coaches Poll No. 15 Missouri State and at Media Poll No. 5 South Dakota. The Bison are favored to win out, although the USD game will be tough. The Bison would be 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with potentially 6-7 wins over ranked opponents.
No. 2 seed Montana State is 9-0 overall with three games left vs. Sac State, at Media Poll No. 4 UC Davis, and vs. Media Poll No. 7 Montana. If the Bobcats win out, which they look strong enough to do, they would finish 12-0 overall with three ranked wins and an FBS win.
The fight for the No. 1 seed has arguments on both sides. The Top 2 seeds both get home-field advantage, but the No. 1 seed would get an easier draw if SDSU earns the No. 3 seed.
NDSU’s projected year-end Massey strength of schedule is ranked 5th in the FCS compared to Montana State’s 24th. I think the playoff committee would value NDSU’s resume more due to the Bison’s SOS and number of quality wins.
No. 3 seed SDSU is 7-2 overall and 6-1 vs. the FCS with the FCS loss to NDSU. The Jackrabbits have three games remaining at Media Poll No. 21 UND, vs. SIU, and at Coaches Poll No. 15 Missouri State. If they win out, the Jacks would be 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with potentially 4-5 wins over ranked opponents. Coupled with a projected year-end SOS that ranks 3rd, SDSU’s resume is strong for a Top 3 seed.
No. 4 seed Mercer looks like it will finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with four ranked wins. Its remaining FCS games are at VMI and vs. Furman. Its projected year-end SOS of 58th could knock the Bears down, but they otherwise have a strong resume for a Top 4 seed.
No. 5 seed SEMO looks to finish 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with a near FBS win. The Redhawks have a then-ranked win over SIU, a win over a UT Martin team that is currently ranked No. 19, and an upcoming game against Tennesse State, who was ranked in last week’s poll. Their projected year-end SOS is 82nd, which could push them back, but they were ranked No. 6 by the committee last week. Keep on winning, and SEMO could climb into that Top 5 as South Dakota and UC Davis have tough games upcoming.
Teams like Montana, UC Davis, and South Dakota can vary big time in their seeds as they’ll be playing upcoming 50/50 games. They can range anywhere from in the Top 2 seed conversation to outside of the Top 8 seeds, depending on how these matchups go.
These three are currently ranked in the Top 7. But Montana and UC Davis play this week, and they both need to play No. 2 Montana State. USD still has to play ranked UND and NDSU.
I had Montana going 1-2 in these final three games, penciling in a win over Portland State and a loss at Montana State while leaning UC Davis for a win this week. I’m probably going to reverse that and take Montana due to defensive improvements, home-field advantage, and UC Davis playing close games vs. inferior opponents on the road. If Montana does go 2-1 in these final three games, it would be 9-3 with 3-4 ranked wins. I also have UC Davis finishing 9-3 with losses to the Montana schools, but the Aggies have a quality win over Idaho to put them at the No. 7 seed.
The No. 8 seed will be a tight battle.
Idaho looks like it can finish 9-3 overall (at Portland State, vs. Weber State, at Idaho State) with two FCS losses to Montana State and UC Davis, three then-ranked wins, and an FBS win. A projected year-end SOS ranked 7th would help boost the Vandals into a first-round bye.
No. 9 seed South Dakota is very interesting to project. The Coyotes are currently ranked No. 5 at 6-2 overall and 5-1 vs. the FCS with a close loss to SDSU. They host Indiana State, go to Media Poll No. 21 UND, and then host Media Poll No. 1 NDSU. We’ll pencil in wins in the next two games, although going to UND will be a challenge. That puts USD at 8-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS with one or two then-ranked wins (SIU, maybe UND is still ranked) and potentially no currently-ranked wins if UND gets pushed out of the Top 25s. If USD beats NDSU in the regular-season finale, the Yotes are in the conversation for a Top 4 seed. But if they lose, are seven wins vs. the FCS, two then-ranked wins, and no currently-ranked wins good enough for a Top 8 seed? The Portland State cancellation, which is not the fault of USD, could become a big factor. And scheduling a non-D1 opponent, even in a 12-game season, could have consequences. D2 wins still count on your resume, but your number of D1 wins is a data point the committee looks at. That final game in Vermillion is so crucial for both USD and NDSU.
No. 10 seed Richmond is 7-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS with the loss to Wofford. The Spiders don’t have any ranked wins, but their victory over Delaware will be deemed a quality W. Their remaining games are at Campbell, at Hampton, and vs. Media Poll No. 20 William & Mary. They have a good shot to win out and finish 10-1 vs. the FCS, but a lack of ranked wins could push Richmond out of the Top 8.
No. 11 seed UIW is 7-2 overall/vs. the FCS with the two losses against SDSU and SIU. The Cardinals do not own any ranked wins. With games vs. Lamar, a tough road trip to SFA, and going to Texas A&M-Commerce, UIW can finish 10-2. But with no then-ranked or currently-ranked wins, that puts UIW in an interesting spot on where the committee stacks their final resume up against a 9-win Idaho team, or a 10-win Richmond team, or an 8-win USD team.
No. 12 seed Rhode Island is 8-1 overall and 8-0 vs. the FCS with one then-ranked win over UNH. Rhody’s remaining games are at Delaware (7-1 but not eligible to be ranked), vs. UAlbany, and at Bryant. If the Rams beat UD this week, I’ll move them up in the seeds. I may lean Delaware later this week in my picks, though.
No. 13 Tarleton State is 7-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS, just losing to its first FCS opponent this last week vs. EKU. The Texans do not own any ranked wins. They go to West Georgia this weekend before hosting Media Poll No. 15 Abilene Christian and Media Poll No. 16 Central Arkansas. If they win out, they can climb higher in the seeds. The UAC auto-bid will work itself out depending on those results.
No. 14 seed Villanova is 7-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS. The FCS loss is to Maine, and the Wildcats have one currently-ranked win over Stony Brook. Their remaining games are vs. NC A&T, at Monmouth, and vs. Delaware. Let’s see how those final two games go, and it’s possible Nova splits them.
No. 15 seed Stony Brook is 7-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS with the loss to Villanova and one currently-ranked win over W&M. With games vs. UAlbany, at UNH, and vs. Monmouth, Stony Brook can climb the seeds if it wins out. But as we’ve mentioned plenty of times before, the unbalanced scheduling in the CAA is going to lead to a lot of CAA teams lacking a good number of ranked wins, which could prevent them from climbing too high in the seeds.
No. 16 seed Illinois State is 6-3 overall and 6-2 vs. the FCS with losses to NDSU and Missouri State. The Redbirds own one then-ranked win and no currently-ranked wins. They have a good chance to win out at UNI, at Indiana State, and vs. Media Poll No. 21 UND. At 9-3 with one or two then-ranked wins, ISU’s resume could go up against UT Martin for the last seed. UT Martin looks to finish 9-3 with one then-ranked win and an FBS win over Kennesaw State. SOS may give ISU (23rd) the edge over UT Martin (49th).
The bubble is going to be very tight and will be broken down further as we near Selection Sunday. There could be at least nine teams with eight wins fighting for those final four spots.
