The 2024 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 10 auto-bids from 10 conferences and 14 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
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Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
FCS Podcast: Selection Committee Chair Matt Larsen
The Field
2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. South Dakota State
4. UC Davis
5. Mercer
6. Idaho
7. UIW
8. Richmond
9. South Dakota
10. SEMO
11. Tarleton State
12. Rhode Island
13. Villanova
14. Montana
15. Stony Brook
16. UT Martin
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
CAA – Richmond
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
*SoCon – Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Tarleton State
*Clinched auto-bid
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
South Dakota State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Montana (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Stony Brook (seed)
UT Martin (seed)
Illinois State
Last 4 In
Chattanooga
ETSU
Abilene Christian
Eastern Kentucky
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. Northern Arizona
26. Southeastern Louisiana
27. William & Mary
28. Western Carolina
29. Central Arkansas
30. Tennessee State
31. NC Central
32. New Hampshire
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. However, the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.
The first round is still regionalized to save the NCAA on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the championship, the committee may allow a small seed adjustment in seeds 9-16 to avoid a conference having all its teams on the same side of the bracket.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
As stated above, keep in mind this does factor in future games.
No. 1 seed NDSU is 9-1 overall and 9-0 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins. The Bison host Coaches Poll No. 14 Missouri State before going to Media Poll No. 5 South Dakota. If the Bison win out, that’s an 11-1 overall record, 11-0 vs. the FCS, and featuring five currently-ranked wins. A Top 2 seed and home-field playoff advantage has to be a lock.
I’m still uncertain about where my prediction will land later this week for No. 2 Montana State at No. 4 UC Davis. I don’t want to lock myself into a pick right now when my mind could easily change, so I’ll just have that result going chalk right now, per the rankings, and project MSU to win.
If Montana State does indeed win Saturday, the Bobcats improve to 10-0 with its second ranked win. They’d then be favored to beat Media Poll No. 10 Montana at home in the regular-season finale. That’s a 12-0 record with three ranked wins and an FBS win. MSU would have an argument for the No. 1 seed, but I see the committee valuing NDSU’s resume more due to more ranked wins and a projected year-end Massey strength of schedule ranked 3rd compared to MSU’s 22nd.
If UC Davis loses Saturday and then beats Sac State in Week 13, the Aggies would finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins. That likely lands them at No. 4 between SDSU and Mercer. If South Dakota State wins out, including winning at Coaches Poll No. 14 Missouri State, the Jackrabbits would finish 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins. Mercer goes to Alabama this week before hosting Furman. The Bears should beat Furman to finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins.
UC Davis’ projected year-end SOS is 15th, Mercer’s is 60th, and SDSU’s is 4th, which will help order seeds 3-5.
No. 6 seed Idaho is 7-3 overall and 6-2 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins plus an FBS win. The Vandals should win vs. Weber State and at Idaho State to finish with nine wins. Ranked No. 7 by the playoff committee in late October, Idaho could rise a spot after SEMO lost last week.
No. 7 seed UIW is 8-2 overall/vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win. If the Cardinals win at SFA and East Texas A&M, they would be 10-2 with one currently-ranked win (if NAU also wins out). It isn’t a tremendous resume, but UIW is ranked No. 6 in the polls this week (while not a metric, committee members are naturally familiar with the rankings) and it was ranked No. 9 by the committee in late October.
No. 8 seed Richmond is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS. The Spiders don’t have any ranked wins, but they do have a quality victory over Delaware, who is now 8-1. Delaware isn’t eligible to be voted on in the polls as it transitions to the FBS. Richmond should win at Hampton and vs. William & Mary, who just dropped out of the rankings. At 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, and 8-0 in the CAA with that win over Delaware, it isn’t a slam-dunk resume for a first-round bye. But the Spiders may have the best argument to be in front of the teams below.
No. 9 seed South Dakota is in a really interesting place. The Coyotes are currently ranked in the Top 5 at 7-2 overall and 6-1 vs. the FCS. Nearly beating SDSU and crushing inferior opponents has helped the Yotes in that ranking. However, they only have one then-ranked win over SIU and no currently-ranked wins. This week’s opponent, UND, just dropped out of the rankings. So that leaves the regular-season finale vs. No. 1 NDSU with massive implications. If USD wins out, it is in the conversation for a Top 4 seed at 9-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS. If the Yotes beat UND and lose to NDSU, they are 8-3 overall with only seven D1 wins and no currently-ranked wins. Is that good enough for a first-round bye? The Portland State cancellation (not the fault of USD) and scheduling a D2 opponent could be consequential.
No. 10 seed SEMO just suffered a backbreaking loss to Lindenwood. In a schedule where the SOS isn’t strong (currently 81st) and there is a lack of ranked opponents, losing a game like that has big consequences. SEMO is now 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win. The Redhawks host WIU and then go to another top Big South-OVC team Tennessee State. If they win out and finish 10-2, they may be left just outside of the Top 8 seeds.
No. 11 seed Tarleton State is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins. The Texans have two ranked opponents to finish the regular season, both at home: Abilene Christian and Central Arkansas. Although there’s a chance Central Arkansas may not be ranked by that time. If Tarleton wins out, it could climb a bit higher in the seeds, depending on what happens elsewhere. We’ll see how this week’s game goes first.
No. 12 seed Rhode Island is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. The Rams should win vs. UAlbany and at Bryant, but a lack of ranked wins at 10-2 could keep them outside of the Top 10 seeds.
No. 13 seed Villanova is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win. With games at Monmouth and vs. a rankable Delaware team (not eligible due to FBS transition) remaining, Nova could rise in the seeds. We’ll project Nova to split these last two games and finish 9-3.
No. 14 seed Montana is 7-3 with two currently-ranked wins. We’ll project a win this week vs. Portland State and a loss next week at No. 2 Montana State. At 8-4 and two ranked wins, Montana will likely receive a seed and host a first-round game, but it’ll be near the bottom of the 16 seeds.
No. 15 seed Stony Brook is 8-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. Games remain at UNH and vs. Monmouth. We’ll project wins there, although those are two tough outs. At 10-2 overall and no currently-ranked wins, SBU will be a seed, but would lack ranked wins to climb high in the seeds.
No. 16 seed UT Martin is 7-3 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins and an FBS win. I’ll project the Skyhawks to win home games vs. TN Tech and Lindenwood to finish 9-3. The FBS win, plus a competitive loss vs. SEMO and a more competitive game against Missouri State compared to Illinois State, gives UT Martin the nod for the No. 16 spot over the Redbirds.
Illinois State is 7-3 overall and 7-2 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. The Redbirds have a good shot to finish with nine wins by winning at Indiana State and vs. UND. They will be in the mix for the No. 16 seed, but UT Martin may own the best win of the two and UTM also played Missouri State tougher.
On the bubble, I have Chattanooga, ETSU, Abilene Christian, and Eastern Kentucky in at 8-4.
Northern Arizona will also have a case at 8-4, but no currently-ranked wins and a non-D1 win could knock the Lumberjacks on the wrong side of the bubble.
ETSU would also be at only seven D1 wins and no currently-ranked wins. But the Bucs recently knocked ranked WCU to the playoff bubble while also having very close losses to Top 8 seeds NDSU and Mercer.
