Link to the Final FCS Bracketology
The 2024 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 10 auto-bids from 10 conferences and 14 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
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Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
FCS Podcast: Selection Committee Chair Matt Larsen
The Field
2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 Top 8 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. South Dakota State
4. UC Davis
5. Mercer
6. Idaho
7. Richmond
8. UIW
9. South Dakota
10. Rhode Island
11. SEMO
12. Abilene Christian
13. Montana
14. Tarleton State
15. Illinois State
16. Villanova
Auto-Bids
*Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
*CAA – Richmond
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – Duquesne
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
*SoCon – Mercer
*Southland – UIW
*UAC – Abilene Christian
*Clinched auto-bid
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
South Dakota State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Montana (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Illinois State (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Stony Brook
Last 4 In
Eastern Kentucky
UT Martin
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. Western Carolina
26. Southern Utah
27. Tennessee State
28. Southeastern Louisiana
29. Chattanooga
30. NC Central
31. William & Mary
32. Tennessee Tech
33. Towson
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. However, the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.
The first round is still regionalized to save the NCAA on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the championship, the committee may allow a small seed adjustment in seeds 9-16 to avoid a conference having all its teams on the same side of the bracket.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
As stated above, keep in mind this does factor in future games.
No. 1 seed NDSU and No. 2 seed Montana State have Top 10 opponents this week. MSU is hosting Media Poll No. 9 Montana, which looks to be a Bobcat win at home. NDSU goes to Media Poll No. 4 South Dakota. That has a chance to be a really good game. We’ll pencil in an NDSU win for right now to make this bracketology easier.
NDSU and Montana State should be the Top 2 seeds if they both win on Saturday. NDSU would finish 11-1 overall and 11-0 vs. the FCS with five currently-ranked wins. MSU would be 12-0 with three currently-ranked wins and an FBS win. NDSU’s projected year-end Massey strength of schedule is ranked 1st compared to MSU’s 22nd. I see the committee valuing NDSU’s resume a bit higher due to more ranked wins, stronger SOS, and having NDSU No. 1 in their Top 10 last month.
No. 3 seed South Dakota State goes to Coaches Poll No. 18 Missouri State this week. How NDSU handled Mo State creates confidence that SDSU can do the same thing. With a win, SDSU would finish 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins. Coupled with a projected year-end SOS ranking 3rd, that should be good for the No. 3 seed.
No. 4 seed UC Davis should beat Sac State. The Aggies would finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins.
No. 5 seed Mercer should beat Furman to finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins but no currently-ranked wins.
If No. 6 seed Idaho wins at Idaho State, the Vandals would finish 9-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins and an FBS win. You could make the case that Idaho jumps Mercer in the seeds, especially with a projected year-end SOS that ranks 6th compared to Mercer’s 60th.
If No. 7 seed Richmond beats playoff-hopeful William & Mary, the Spiders would finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS. They wouldn’t own any ranked wins, but they do have a victory over Delaware, who is now 9-1 but isn’t eligible to be voted on in the polls as it transitions to the FBS. Richmond would finish 8-0 in the CAA.
The No. 8 seed will be tightly contested.
If UIW wins at East Texas A&M, it will finish 10-2 overall/vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win. Its projected year-end SOS is 53rd. That isn’t a slam-dunk resume to get a first-round bye, especially when the committee had UIW ranked No. 9 late last month.
South Dakota is in a fascinating spot. The Coyotes are currently ranked No. 4 in the polls at 8-2 overall and 7-1 vs. the FCS. Nearly beating SDSU and mostly dominating inferior opponents has helped the Yotes in that ranking. However, they only have one then-ranked win over SIU and no currently-ranked wins. They host No. 1 NDSU this week with massive implications. If USD wins, it is in the conversation for a Top 4 seed at 9-2 overall and 8-1 vs. the FCS. If the Yotes lose to NDSU, they are 8-3 overall with only seven D1 wins and no currently-ranked wins. Is that good enough for a first-round bye? The Portland State cancellation (not the fault of USD) and scheduling a D2 opponent could be consequential.
Rhode Island, SEMO, and Abilene Christian could also be considered for the No. 8 seed if they all win this weekend. Rhody would be 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win. SEMO would be 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins. And ACU would be 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins.
I have the final four seeds going to Montana, Tarleton State, Illinois State, and Villanova, who look to finish either 8-4 or 9-3.
On the bubble, I have Eastern Kentucky, UT Martin, Northern Arizona, and New Hampshire in the bracket at 8-4. Of this bunch, NAU would have seven D1 wins compared to the other three having eight D1 wins.
Wester Carolina would have an argument to get in at 7-5 overall with seven D1 wins. Tennessee State is currently 8-3 with eight D1 wins, and it could solidify its playoff resume by beating ranked SEMO this week. That would create movement in this bracketology if TN State were to win.
Southeastern Louisiana and Chattanooga could finish 7-5 with seven D1 wins, but it would need bubble help to get into the bracket.
