It’s time to take one final stab at what the 2024 FCS playoff bracket will look like before Selection Sunday.
The official bracket will be announced on Sunday, Nov. 24. The selection show airs at 11:30 a.m. CT on ESPNU.
Below are predictions for the seeds, the at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble. This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
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The Field
2021-2023 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 22/24 Top 8 seeds correct, 69/72 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. Montana State
2. South Dakota State
3. North Dakota State
4. South Dakota
5. UC Davis
6. Idaho
7. Mercer
8. Richmond
9. UIW
10. Rhode Island
11. Villanova
12. Montana
13. Abilene Christian
14. Illinois State
15. Tarleton State
16. SEMO
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
Big South-OVC – SEMO
CAA – Richmond
MVFC – South Dakota State
NEC – CCSU
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – UIW
UAC – Abilene Christian
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams who are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
South Dakota (seed)
North Dakota State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Idaho (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Montana (seed)
Illinois State (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Eastern Kentucky
Last 4 In
Tennessee State
Northern Arizona
New Hampshire
Southern Utah
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. UT Martin
26. Western Carolina
27. Stony Brook
28. Southeastern Louisiana
29. Chattanooga
30. NC Central
The Bracket
The FCS playoff bracket increased its number of seeded teams from 8 to 16 this year. Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid. First-round matchups will still be paired up based on geography. However, the second round will no longer be based on regionalization. The No. 16 seed will feed into the No. 1 seed, the No. 15 seed into the No. 2 seed, and so on.
The first round is still regionalized to save the NCAA on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up in the first round. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the championship, the committee may allow a small seed adjustment in seeds 9-16 to avoid a conference having all its teams on the same side of the bracket.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
Montana State should get the No. 1 seed at 12-0 with an FBS win and three currently-ranked wins.
Seeds 2-4 then get very interesting. USD/NDSU/SDSU all have one FCS loss, all to each other in incredibly tight games.
It’s really hard to know what this committee will favor. NDSU has the best overall body of work over USD and SDSU with more D1 wins, more currently-ranked wins, a tougher strength of schedule, and a better FBS loss. But the committee could also really favor the most recent USD head-to-head win over NDSU as a tiebreaker. They could also use SDSU being the auto-bid as the tiebreaker. Plus, SDSU beat USD…
My gut right now tells me South Dakota State will get the No. 2 seed at 10-2, nine D1 wins, three currently-ranked wins, and two Top 10 wins. The Jacks do have the head-to-head loss to NDSU, but it also finished the season stronger with a win, has the AQ, and could get the defending champs benefit of the doubt that the Bison enjoyed for many years. SDSU beat USD. SDSU nearly won at NDSU and led until the final minutes, and so on a neutral field? The committee may favor SDSU over NDSU if the argument gets down to “Who do we think would win right now on a neutral field?”
That would put NDSU at No. 3 with 10 D1 wins, four currently-ranked wins, and the No. 1 SOS. USD would be No. 4 at eight D1 wins and one currently-ranked win. But again, does the committee favor overall body or work or the head-to-head?
I have no confidence in my 2-4 order of seeds. I have been convinced three different ways since USD beat NDSU.
UC Davis should slot into the No. 5 seed at 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, and two currently-ranked wins.
Idaho finishes 9-3 overall with two FCS losses to UC Davis and Montana State, an FBS win, and two currently-ranked wins. Mercer is 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with four then-ranked wins and no currently-ranked wins. Idaho’s SOS is 6th compared to Mercer’s 60th.
For the last first-round bye…
Richmond edges UIW for the No. 8 seed. Both are 10-2 overall. Richmond has the better win (over Delaware) than UIW’s ranked win over NAU. Richmond has one FCS loss compared to UIW’s two. Richmond went 8-0 in the CAA. And Richmond looked like the stronger team in today’s games as UIW was in a battle with East Texas A&M while Richmond handled playoff-hopeful William & Mary.
Rhody gets the No. 10 seed at 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, and one currently-ranked win. Villanova is right behind Rhody at 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins.
Montana and Abilene Christian are both 8-4 with two currently-ranked wins, but Montana has a slightly better SOS.
Illinois State and Tarleton State are both 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with no currently-ranked wins. ISU’s SOS is a bit stronger than Tarleton’s.
I wasn’t really sure where to go with the No. 16 seed. I put SEMO there as it finished 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with one ranked win. And it’s been decently ranked in the polls, which sometimes the committee will mirror voters’ thinking.
On the right side of the bubble…
Eastern Kentucky has a good argument to get in at 8-4 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win. Tennessee State is 9-3 overall and just beat SEMO. Northern Arizona is 8-4 overall with seven D1 wins with only one then-ranked win, but it is No. 15 in Massey’s ratings and has the No. 25 SOS.
New Hampshire is 8-4 overall, 8-3 vs. the FCS, and has a ranked win over bubble team Stony Brook. Southern Utah is 7-5 with an FBS win, a ranked win over EKU, and about a Top 20 SOS.
On the wrong side of the bubble…
UT Martin will have a good case to get in at 8-4, an FBS win, and a ranked win over Tennessee State. Its SOS is 50th compared to SUU’s 21st.
Western Carolina is 7-5 overall and 7-4 vs. the FCS, but it doesn’t have a win over a team currently ranked. It does have the head-to-head win over 7-D1-win Chattanooga.
Stony Brook is 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS, but it has no currently-ranked wins and lost to two straight unranked teams to end the year. Southeastern Louisiana is 7-5 overall and 7-3 vs. the FCS, while NC Central is 8-3 overall with seven D1 wins. But both lack any ranked wins.
