A day before FCS Selection Sunday, a massive showdown occurs when No. 2 Montana hosts No. 3 Montana State in the Brawl of the Wild. It’s a top-tier rivalry in all of college football, and the implications are huge.
Montana is 11-0 with 10 D1 wins, including one currently-ranked win (No. 13 UND). Its Massey projected year-end strength of schedule is 25th in the FCS.
Montana State is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS, featuring two currently-ranked wins (No. 23 Northern Arizona, No. 15 UC Davis). MSU’s projected year-end strength of schedule is 3rd in the FCS.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams in playoff positioning? Let’s start with if the home team wins.
If Montana Wins…
For Montana
The Grizzlies win the Big Sky title, secure the conference auto-bid, and should earn the No. 2 seed behind a 12-0 NDSU team with six currently-ranked wins.
The playoff committee ranked Montana No. 3 and Montana State No. 2 in their Nov. 5 Top 10 reveal. They wouldn’t have a reason to move a 12-0 Lehigh team or an 11-1 Tarleton State to the No. 2 spot ahead of Montana.
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For Montana State
A loss for MSU would drop the Bobcats to 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS. How far do they fall in the seeds? Or do the Cats get put at No. 3 right behind Montana, setting up a potential semifinal rematch in Missoula?
Two possible candidates to jump a 9-3 MSU team are Lehigh and Tarleton State if they win on Saturday. But how good of an argument do they have?
Lehigh would be 12-0 with two currently-ranked wins (Yale, Lafayette). But Lehigh’s strength of schedule is in the 90s. MSU’s SOS is 3rd. Yes, MSU playing Oregon boosted its SOS, but the Cats have also played four Top 25 teams, three of which were ranked in the Top 10 at the time (SDSU, UC Davis, Montana).
Tarleton State could finish 11-1 with an FBS win over Army and one currently-ranked win over West Georgia. Tarleton will have the 31st SOS. Would the committee really move Tarleton ahead of MSU when they had them No. 5 and No. 2 in early November? Just for losing at No. 2 Montana? A week after MSU beat Top 10 UC Davis by three touchdowns?
Tennessee Tech could finish 10-0 vs. the FCS, but it has zero ranked wins and an SOS in the 80s. It’s hard to see the Golden Eagles moving ahead of the MSU-Montana loser.
Several FCS ADs and commissioners have encouraged scheduling tough non-conference games. If the committee moves MSU down multiple spots because they have two FCS losses and Lehigh has zero, or Tarleton has one, you’re sending a message to not schedule tough non-conference games you can lose, and instead schedule a cupcake FCS opponent for an easy win, especially if you’re in a power league.
If MSU loses a close game, it has a strong argument to be seeded No. 3. But 12-0 may look better than 9-3 for committee members, and we could see Lehigh move up to No. 3 if it beats Lafayette. If MSU loses in a blowout, that could give individual committee members another reason to drop the Cats below No. 3.
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If Montana State Wins…
For Montana State
The Bobcats win the Big Sky title, secure the conference auto-bid, and should earn the No. 2 seed in the playoffs behind NDSU, who will be 12-0 with six currently-ranked wins.
The playoff committee ranked Montana State No. 2 and Montana No. 3 in their Nov. 5 Top 10 reveal. They wouldn’t have a reason to move a 12-0 Lehigh team or an 11-1 Tarleton State to the No. 2 spot ahead of MSU.
For Montana
Montana would fall to 11-1 with 10 D1 wins and one currently-ranked win over UND. The Griz also own a win over Sac State, who will be in at-large consideration if it beats UC Davis this week.
An 11-1 Montana team seems more likely to get the No. 3 seed than a 9-3 Montana State team.
As stated above, one or two teams that could jump Montana are Lehigh and Tarleton State. A 12-0 Lehigh team with two currently-ranked wins (Yale, Lafayette) would have two more D1 wins than Montana and one more currently-ranked win. But Lehigh’s SOS is 93rd compared to Montana’s 25th.
Tarleton State could finish 11-1 with an FBS win over Army and one currently-ranked win over West Georgia. Tarleton will have the 31st SOS, which is about on par with Montana’s 25th. The Texans would have one more D1 win than Montana, and the committee could consider their win over Army as more impressive than Montana’s win over UND.
Tennessee Tech could finish 10-0 vs. the FCS, but it has zero ranked wins and an SOS in the 80s. It’s hard to see the Golden Eagles moving ahead of the MSU-Montana loser.
If Montana loses a close game to a team the committee ranked No. 2 in early November, would an 11-1 Griz team deserve to fall below No. 3? They would have a strong argument to remain in the Top 3. But if the Griz get blown out at home, the committee may have a reason to drop them below No. 3.
And it is possible that some Montana State and Montana fans may not mind moving to the No. 4 seed with a loss. It depends on who you’d rather face in a potential semifinal game: Get seeded No. 4 and go to No. 1 NDSU? Or get seeded No. 3 and go to your hated rival’s place?
