The 2025 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 11 auto-bids from 11 conferences and 13 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded, with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
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Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
The Field
2021-2024 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 29/32 Top 8 seeds correct, 92/96 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana
3. Montana State
4. Tarleton State
5. Monmouth
6. Lehigh
7. Mercer
8. Tennessee Tech
9. North Dakota
10. South Dakota State
11. Harvard
12. Rhode Island
13. Abilene Christian
14. SFA
15. Southeastern Louisiana University
16. Villanova
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana
CAA – Monmouth
Ivy – Harvard
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – CCSU
OVC-Big South – Tennessee Tech
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – SFA
UAC – Abilene Christian
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams that are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
Montana State (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
North Dakota (seed)
South Dakota State (seed)
Rhode Island (seed)
Southeastern Louisiana University (seed)
Villanova (seed)
Youngstown State
UC Davis
Last 4 In
21. Illinois State
22. Western Carolina
23. Lamar
24. South Dakota
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. Northern Arizona
26. Dartmouth
27. William & Mary
28. Presbyterian
29. Austin Peay
30. Southern Illinois
The Bracket
Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid.
First-round matchups are regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket as long as it doesn’t impact or change the seeding.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
The Top 2 seeds seem to be clearing up. Still undefeated and owning five currently-ranked wins, NDSU has a loaded resume. The Bison could afford to drop a game and still likely get a Top 2 seed, similar to last year, especially after UND and Tarleton State lost last week. The winner of Montana State at Montana should get the other Top 2 seed, which comes with coveted homefield advantage, assuming they both win out until then. It’ll be interesting to see how far the loser of MSU-Montana drops. You could argue the loser gets the No. 3 seed and the winner gets the No. 2. If MSU suffers its third loss of the season (2nd vs. the FCS), though, would an 11-1 Tarleton State team with an FBS win and a pretty good strength of schedule jump a 9-3 MSU team? MSU’s SOS (projected No. 4 vs. Tarleton’s No. 29) and a projected higher-ranked win over UC Davis could have the Cats remain at No. 3.
Teams like Monmouth, Lehigh, and Tennessee Tech are all projected to finish undefeated vs. the FCS. But they all have strength of schedules projected to be in the 70s or 80s. Monmouth has the best win of the bunch, beating ranked Villanova. If Mercer wins out vs. FCS opponents, it’d be 9-1 with a No. 59 SOS and a ranked win over WCU. That’s another team to keep an eye on in the Top 8 seed discussion.
Teams like UND and SDSU could climb into the Top 8 depending on how they finish. UND still has to play NDSU and SDSU. SDSU has three ranked opponents remaining — USD, Illinois State, and SDSU. If either of them hit nine wins, they could get a first-round bye. Both could finish with eight wins, though.
Harvard and Southeastern could finish undefeated vs. the FCS, while Rhody could finish 10-1 vs. the FCS. Those are other teams that may not have any currently-ranked wins or a great SOS, but could climb in the seeds. SFA’s loss to ACU could keep it from climbing too far up the seeds. Unfortunately, Southeastern and SFA don’t play, and Rhody doesn’t play Monmouth or Villanova.
On the bubble, Illinois State, WCU, and Lamar are in with projected eight wins. Lamar’s win over USD will be crucial. USD is also in at a projected 7-5 with a couple of ranked wins in November.
USD’s wins over ranked opponents bump 8-win teams like NAU, Dartmouth, and W&M out. A 9-1 vs. FCS Presbyterian team will be an interesting case. Does the Pioneer get a second bid? SIU’s non-D1 win could come back to bite the Salukis. SIU, currently 6-3 overall, has three ranked opponents still to play — YSU, USD, Illinois State.
Expect plenty of fluidity between now and Selection Sunday. As we learned last week, assumed wins don’t always happen. But weekly bracketology gives fans an idea of what teams to pay attention to for first-round byes, first-round host teams, and bubble teams.
