The 2025 FCS playoff bracket has 24 teams, featuring 11 auto-bids from 11 conferences and 13 at-large bids. Sixteen teams will be seeded, with the Top 8 receiving first-round byes and seeds 9-16 hosting first-round games.
How the playoff field changes and takes shape every week is fascinating. So after every weekend of games moving forward, I will predict what the bracket will look like.
Below are predictions for the seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams are on the bubble.
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Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
The Field
2021-2024 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 29/32 Top 8 seeds correct, 92/96 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana
3. Montana State
4. Lehigh
5. Tarleton State
6. Tennessee Tech
7. Mercer
8. Monmouth
9. Harvard
10. North Dakota
11. South Dakota State
12. Rhode Island
13. Abilene Christian
14. UC Davis
15. SFA
16. Youngstown State
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana
CAA – Rhode Island
Ivy – Harvard
*MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – CCSU
OVC-Big South – Tennessee Tech
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
*SoCon – Mercer
Southland – SFA
UAC – Abilene Christian
*Clinched auto-bid
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams that are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
Montana State (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Monmouth (seed)
North Dakota (seed)
South Dakota State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Youngstown State (seed)
Lamar
Villanova
Last 4 In
21. Illinois State
22. Western Carolina
23. Southeastern Louisiana University
24. South Dakota
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. Austin Peay
26. Northern Arizona
27. Dartmouth
28. New Hampshire
29. William & Mary
30. Southern Illinois
The Bracket
Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid.
First-round matchups are regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
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The Explanation
Top 8 Seeds
NDSU will have a stacked resume for the No. 1 seed at 12-0 with six currently-ranked wins (South Dakota, Illinois State, SIU, SDSU, YSU, UND).
As long as they handle business this week, the winner of Montana State at Montana should get the No. 2 seed. MSU looks like a more complete team, but the Grizzlies are at home, and the home team has dominated every game dating back to 2019. With a win, Montana would be 12-0 with two currently-ranked (UND, MSU). Montana State would be 9-3 overall and 9-2 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (NAU, UC Davis) and Massey’s 3rd FCS strength of schedule.
Lehigh should finish 12-0, but a 92nd SOS and only one potential currently-ranked win (Lafayette) could prevent the Mountain Hawks from jumping the loser of MSU-Montana, although a three-loss MSU team would be more likely to drop lower than a one-loss Montana team. MSU’s SOS could keep it above Lehigh despite three fewer wins.
Seeds 5-8 will be competitive.
I have Tarleton State at No. 5 with an 11-1 record, featuring an FBS win over Army and one currently-ranked win (West Georgia). Tarleton’s 30th SOS is far better than teams 6-9. At No. 6, I have Tennessee Tech finishing 11-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS. It won’t have any ranked wins, and its SOS will be 82nd. But the committee liked TN Tech at the No. 7 spot last week.
No. 7 is Mercer at 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS, one currently-ranked win (WCU), and on a 9-game FCS winning streak entering the playoffs. Mercer’s SOS will be 51st. At No. 8 is Monmouth, finishing 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win (Villanova). Its lone FCS loss to New Hampshire may be forgiven by the committee with QB Derek Robertson sidelined. Player availability is a factor. Monmouth’s SOS will be 81st.
Seeds 9-16
Harvard could have a case for a first-round bye at 10-0. But it won’t have any ranked wins, and its SOS will be 84th.
I have UND and SDSU in at 8-4 (UND would be 8-3 vs. the FCS). Both would have three currently-ranked wins (UND over YSU, SIU, and SDSU; SDSU over Montana State, YSU, and Illinois State). Both will also have top-10 strength of schedules, which could help them rise a little further in the seeds if the committee values their ranked wins and SOS over teams that have more overall wins against weaker competition.
Rhode Island is projected to finish 10-2 overall and 10-1 vs. the FCS, but it won’t have any currently-ranked wins and an SOS ranked 79th.
Abilene Christian, UC Davis, and Youngstown State are projected to finish with eight wins and Top 18 strength of schedules. YSU has two currently-ranked wins over Illinois State and SIU, ACU has three currently-ranked wins over SFA, West Georgia, and Tarleton State, and UC Davis has one currently-ranked win over Northern Arizona.
SFA is in at 10-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS, featuring one currently-ranked win over Lamar and enjoying a 10-game winning streak entering the playoffs.
Unseeded At-Large Teams
Lamar and Villanova are projected to hit nine wins. Lamar will have two currently-ranked wins over USD and Southeastern Louisiana. Villanova won’t have any currently-ranked wins. Both teams’ SOS are in the upper 40s or 50s.
The last four in include a nine-win Southeastern Louisiana team at 9-1 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins. Illinois State and Western Carolina are in with eight wins. Illinois State will have two currently-ranked wins over USD and SIU. WCU will be 8-4 overall, but will be 8-1 with star QB Taron Dickens in the lineup.
I have South Dakota in the bracket regardless of whether the Yotes beat SIU this week. If USD wins to finish 8-4, it will slide up more. If the Yotes lose, I still think they are in at 7-5 (7-4 vs. the FCS) with two currently-ranked wins over UND and SDSU, who were ranked in the Top 10 at the time.
On The Outside
Austin Peay will have a good argument to get in at 7-5 overall, featuring a dominant FBS win over Middle TN State and a currently-ranked win over West Georgia.
Northern Arizona, Dartmouth, and New Hampshire are on the outside with eight wins. NAU lacks any currently-ranked wins. New Hampshire does have a ranked win over Monmouth, but Dartmouth has a head-to-head win over UNH.
William & Mary is projected to finish with eight wins. But there aren’t any needle-moving victories.
I have Southern Illinois projected to finish 7-5, but it would only have six D1 wins.
