It’s time to take one final stab at what the 2025 FCS playoff bracket will look like before Selection Sunday.
The official bracket will be announced on Sunday, Nov. 23. The selection show airs at 11 a.m. CT on ESPNU.
Below are predictions for the seeds, the at-large bids, and which teams are on the bubble. This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
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Notes
These predictions take current playoff resumes and all future scheduled games into consideration.
This is through the eyes of the playoff committee and what I think they will do.
The seeds associated with teams won’t be the same as my Top 25 rankings. My poll ballot is ranking teams based on performances/resumes so far. This bracketology is projecting ahead.
The Field
2021-2024 Final Bracketology Accuracy: 29/32 Top 8 seeds correct, 92/96 teams in the field correct
Seeds
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. Montana
4. Lehigh
5. Tarleton State
6. Tennessee Tech
7. Mercer
8. Rhode Island
9. SFA
10. Villanova
11. South Dakota
12. South Dakota State
13. Abilene Christian
14. Youngstown State
15. UC Davis
16. Southeastern Louisiana University
Auto-Bids
Big Sky – Montana State
CAA – Rhode Island
Ivy – Yale
MVFC – North Dakota State
NEC – CCSU
OVC-Big South – Tennessee Tech
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – Drake
SoCon – Mercer
Southland – SFA
UAC – Abilene Christian
At-Large Bids
Ordered from most likely to least likely to get in. Seeded teams that are not their conference’s auto-bid will be at the top.
Montana (seed)
Tarleton State (seed)
Villanova (seed)
South Dakota (seed)
South Dakota State (seed)
Youngstown State (seed)
UC Davis (seed)
Southeastern (seed)
Harvard
Last 4 In
21. Monmouth
22. Illinois State
23. Lamar
24. North Dakota
Bubble Teams Left Out
Ordered from the best chance to make the bracket out of this group to the worst chance.
25. New Hampshire
26. Austin Peay
27. Lafayette
28. Northern Arizona
29. Southern Utah
30. Southern Illinois
The Bracket
Seeds 1-8 get a first-round bye, and seeds 9-16 will host first-round games as long as they meet the minimum bid.
First-round matchups are regionalized to save on travel costs. The committee tries to utilize as many bus trips (400 miles or less) as possible while avoiding regular-season rematches.
The committee avoids conference matchups in the first round if the two teams played each other in the regular season. However, if two conference teams did not play each other during the regular season, they may be paired up. Regular-season non-conference rematches should be avoided in the first round.
If a conference has four or more teams in the bracket, the committee can add an extra flight to avoid having all teams on one side of the bracket.
The order of seeds is not determined by regionalization.
The Explanation
Seeds
NDSU has a stacked resume for the No. 1 seed at 12-0 with six currently-ranked wins (South Dakota, Illinois State, SIU, SDSU, YSU, UND).
Montana State, after being the committee’s No. 2 team earlier this month, secures the No. 2 seed by winning at Montana. The Bobcats are 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. FCS, and have three currently-ranked wins (NAU, UCD, Montana).
The No. 3 and 4 seeds are likely between Montana and Lehigh.
Lehigh is 12-0 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (Yale, Lafayette). Montana is 11-1 overall with 10 D1 wins and one currently-ranked win (UND). Lehigh has two more D1 wins. But Montana’s Massey strength of schedule is 25th, compared to Lehigh’s 93rd. Montana’s only loss is a back-and-forth battle against No. 2 seed Montana State. Lehigh was in a battle with Lafayette, who was unranked in the media poll and No. 24 in the coaches poll. If the committee is going off of who they think is the better team (and they say eye test matters), then I think Montana gets the No. 3 seed.
Tarleton State should be in the Top 5 mix, finishing 11-1 with an FBS win (Army) and one currently-ranked win (West Georgia).
TN Tech also looks likely for a Top 8 seed, finishing 11-1 overall and 10-0 vs. the FCS, although it won’t have any ranked wins and its SOS is 83rd. The committee had them No. 7 earlier this month.
Mercer has won nine straight games against the FCS and is one of the hottest teams in the subdivision right now. The Bears have a good argument for a first-round bye at 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS. Their offense is so much better now with Braden Atkinson at QB than what they showed in the first two games against UC Davis (called a no-contest due to weather) and in an ugly loss to Presbyterian. The Bears won’t have any currently-ranked wins, although they did beat a ranked WCU team two weekends ago. While the committee doesn’t use the coaches or media polls to influence their own rankings, the committee and both polls are usually pretty similar in their thinking. Mercer is Top 7 in both polls.
The final spot in the Top 8 goes to Rhode Island, who is 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, and has one currently-ranked win (UNH).
SFA is 10-2 overall, 9-1 vs. the FCS with nine D1 wins, and one currently-ranked win over Lamar.
Villanova is 9-2 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win over UNH. Nova is ranked No. 9 and 7 in the polls. While the committee doesn’t use the coaches or media polls to influence their own rankings, the committee and both polls are usually pretty similar in their thinking.
South Dakota is 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins (UND, SDSU, SIU).
South Dakota State is 8-4 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins (Montana State, YSU, UND).
Abilene Christian is 8-4 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with three currently-ranked wins (SFA, UWG, Tarleton).
Youngstown State is 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS with two currently-ranked wins (Illinois State, SIU) and the 16th SOS.
UC Davis is 8-3 overall and 8-2 vs. the FCS with one currently-ranked win over NAU. The committee had been high on Davis in its in-season rankings, putting them at No. 10 in early November.
For the No. 16 spot … Monmouth, Harvard, Illinois State, Lamar, and UND losing all helps Southeastern get No. 16 at 9-3 overall and 9-1 vs. the FCS.
Unseeded At-Large Teams
Harvard finishes 9-1 overall after losing to Yale today, which gave Yale the auto-bid. I think 9-1 is good enough for Harvard to get in as an at-large.
Monmouth suffered an upset loss to UAlbany today and finishes 9-3 overall, 9-2 vs. the FCS, and has one currently-ranked win (Villanova). Despite the ugly loss, it has enough of an overall body of work to get in.
Illinois State is 8-4 overall, 8-3 vs. the FCS, and has two currently-ranked wins (USD, SDSU). That’s enough to get in despite losing to SIU today.
Lamar suffered an upset loss to McNeese to finish 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS. But it does have two currently-ranked wins over USD and Southeastern.
North Dakota lost to SDSU today to finish 7-5 overall, 7-4 vs. the FCS, has two currently-ranked wins (YSU, SIU), played the No. 2 SOS, and has multiple close losses to highly-ranked teams. UND’s SOS and two ranked wins lead to a nod over 8-win teams like New Hampshire and Lafayette. The committee in the past has said it tries to get the best teams in. UND is the best team for this last spot.
UNH is 8-4 overall and 8-3 vs. the FCS with a currently-ranked win over Monmouth, while Lafayette is 8-2 vs. the FCS with no ranked wins. Their strength of schedules are in the 50s and 70s, though, compared to UND’s No. 2 SOS. SOS has been a big deal for past committees. But every year can be different, so we’ll see…
Austin Peay is 7-5 overall with an FBS win and one currently-ranked win (West Georgia). Losses to unranked teams like EKU and SUU prove to be costly on a tight bubble.
NAU doesn’t have any ranked wins at 7-5, but did beat a 7-5 SUU team. Southern Illinois is 7-5 and just beat Illinois State decisively, but it only has six D1 wins.
