Week 5 of the 2025 FCS season is here, and it features two ranked matchups.
After a 13-0 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 42-11
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Week 5 Predictions
No. 8 Idaho at No. 5 Montana Prediction
Big Sky at Dark is back.
The top eight showdown for the Little Brown Stein kicks off at 9:15 p.m. CT, 8:15 local time in Montana, and will air on ESPN2. It’s the 90th meeting between Montana and Idaho in a series that dates back to 1903.
There is a lot to be excited about for both teams. An obvious statement considering they are ranked in the Top 10. But still, some unknowns remain.
Montana is 3-0, looked fantastic last week against Indiana State, and has a ranked win over North Dakota after an epic comeback. But questions could be pointed at a ho-hum first half vs. D2 Central Washington, Montana not looking good for 75% of the UND game, and Indiana State being a struggling program while its starting QB was out injured. The Grizzlies have looked exceptional in their last five quarters. How good are they? We’ll find out Saturday.
Idaho is 2-2 overall and 2-0 vs. the FCS. The FCS wins were OK performances, beating non-scholarship St. Thomas by seven and Utah Tech, who is now 1-3, by 14. Idaho’s two losses were both by three points to FBS opponents — Washington State and San Jose State — two games in which the Vandals had opportunities to win. SJSU is now 1-2, and WSU is 2-2. Is nearly beating two FBS opponents a great gauge of how good Idaho is? We’ll find out Saturday.
Eli Gillman has been that dude again for the Griz, rushing for 400 yards and six scores through three games. But Keali’i Ah Yat could be taking this offense to another level. We perhaps saw his anticipated breakout play when he led Montana to its comeback win over UND. The next week vs. Indiana State, he went 22/27 for 313 yards and two touchdowns, plus a rushing TD. Granted, ISU came into the game with the No. 75 FCS passing defense, allowing 239.0 yards per game. Idaho currently has the No. 60 FCS passing defense (210.8 YPG). The Vandals have shown a tougher run defense, led by linebackers Dylan Layne (31 tackles) and Isiah King (27 tackles, 4 TFLs), but have been more leaky in the secondary.
Idaho’s offense is led by QB Joshua Wood, a 6-foot-3 redshirt sophomore who transferred in from Fresno State. He was handed the keys and has flashed his abilities of being one of the better signal-callers Idaho has had due to his multiple skill set. He’s completing 62.7% of his throws for 665 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. Wood also leads the Vandals in rushing (314 yards, 3 TDs) as their running back group has battled through some injuries. They’ll go up against what looks like a more cohesive Montana defense compared to last season.
It seems Idaho plays up to its competition and down to its competition. So I expect a sharp performance from the Vandals in hostile territory. But there are some vibes around this Montana squad that it’s about to go on a run. Momentum is building in that direction. And the crowd will feed that momentum for the Griz to grab ranked win No. 2 early in the season.
Prediction: Montana 28-24
No. 17 South Dakota at No. 1 NDSU Prediction
Back in late January, this game was viewed as a potential No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup. But the transfer portal then hit USD hard after it made it through the winter portal period mostly intact, besides losing Mi’Quise Grace, an expected departure. The Coyotes lost three starting offensive linemen, their top tackler, a leader in the secondary, and their top returner at wide receiver.
It turned into a bigger rebuilding project than expected for first-year head coach Travis Johansen. USD started 0-2, getting walloped at Iowa State and then losing a 20-13 stunner at Lamar. Meanwhile, All-American running back Charles Pierre Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 2, adding another blow to the team. A 24-17 overtime win against Northern Colorado didn’t stoke much confidence. But last week’s 42-21 victory over Drake, a game the Yotes led 42-7 after three quarters, saw a more cohesive offense, especially in the passing game.
For whatever it’s worth, USD handled Drake easier than SDSU did the week before. But you could argue the Yotes were probably playing with a higher sense of urgency than the Jacks.
Aidan Bouman and his targets were a bit off in the first three games. Last week, however, Bouman finished 13/20 for 226 yards and two touchdowns. Running back L.J. Phillips Jr. has stepped up in a major way, rushing for 301 yards and two TDs against Northern Colorado, and 143 yards and four scores vs. Drake.
NDSU, meanwhile, has looked the part of the No. 1 team despite losing a few starters to the portal in the spring. While the opponents have not been good teams, the Bison have blown them out, something a few other top teams haven’t always done against inferior competition. The Bison beat The Citadel 38-0, Tennessee State 59-3, and SEMO 41-14. NDSU’s defense looks better than last year. And Cole Payton has emerged as the next great Bison QB — 39/55 for 706 yards, 6 TDs, 0 INT; 175 rushing yards, 1 TD.
USD has played pretty good defense against FCS competition, making Saturday the best gauge so far for Payton and Co.
South Dakota has a two-game regular-season winning streak over NDSU, beating the Bison 24-19 in 2023 and 29-28 last year, scoring two touchdowns in the final 3:22 for a comeback victory. The Bison do have a postseason win over USD in between, hammering the Yotes 45-17 in the 2023 quarterfinals.
NDSU had a bye last week, allowing for some extra prep time. There is also likely a certain level of revenge factor at play, too. While last year’s loss at USD didn’t impact much in the big picture, because NDSU still received home-field advantage in the playoffs and went on to win the natty, the late-game collapse probably still sticks in the craw of the Bison program.
A part of me thinks USD is going to step into a hornet’s nest and get blown out. Another part of me thinks USD may play better than some of us expect and make it a close game. So maybe it’ll fall somewhere in between.
Prediction: NDSU 34-17
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No. 18 West Georgia at Southern Utah Prediction
West Georgia is one of the best stories in the FCS right now. In their second season as FCS and UAC members, the Wolves are 4-0 with four FCS wins. They beat then-ranked Nicholls 34-10, and also have a close win over ETSU, a team that is receiving votes and might be the best SoCon team.
UWG won’t be playoff-eligible until 2027 as it completes its transition to D1. But the football program has still earned national respect.
The Wolves keep winning despite not playing the cleanest offensively. Davin Wydner has thrown for 630 yards, seven touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Latrelle Murrell has been strong at running back, averaging 105.5 rushing yards per game. The defense has been nasty, allowing just 14.0 points per game and 87.3 rushing yards per game.
Southern Utah, despite being 1-3, seems due for a win.
The Thunderbirds have played well at home, rolling Idaho State 46-24 and nearly knocking off then-No. 18 Northern Arizona, losing 52-49.
SUU’s offense continues to be a problem for defenses, putting up 34 points in a 50-34 loss at No. 9 UC Davis last week. Joshua Dye has been electric, rushing for 538 yards and seven touchdowns. And Bronson Barron is playing his best ball of his career, throwing for 1,153 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception. Lando Brown is already up to four sacks for the defense.
The Thunderbirds will get into shootouts, scoring 39.0 points per game while also allowing 39.0 PPG. It’s been an up-and-down year so far. And just when you think this program is out, it’ll pop a big win to get back onto the radar.
Prediction: SUU 35-31
Mercer at ETSU Prediction
ETSU looks like the best team in the SoCon right now. Mercer was expected to be the best team entering this season. It’s a pivotal game, ETSU’s first in SoCon play, while Mercer is 2-0 in the standings.
It was an odd start to Mercer’s year after being preseason ranked. The Bears’ Week 0 game vs. UC Davis was called off midgame due to weather. They then lost a 15-10 stunner against non-scholarship Presbyterian. Mercer had to sit with that loss for an extra week with a bye. But the Bears made a quarterback switch, going with true freshman Braden Atkinson.
Mercer now looks like a different team after Atkinson took the reins.
He threw for 311 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in a 22-21 win over Wofford. The Bears then beat The Citadel 38-0, led by Atkinson going 29/35 passing for 305 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions.
ETSU is 2-2, beating Murray State 45-17 and Elon 26-16 while losing 72-17 at Tennessee and 35-31 at ranked West Georgia. The Bucs have played both P4 transfer QBs, Cade McNamara and Jacolby Criswell, but Criswell sat out last week with an injury. McNamara, who was already taking more reps, took command against Elon and went 30/45 for 268 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.
Mercer’s defense is up to 20 TFLs in three games, led by Drew Clare’s 5.5 and Andrew Zock’s 5.0. I think the Bears can be disruptive enough defensively while their offense continues its turnaround, earning a gutsy road win over an ETSU team that I have ranked.
Prediction: Mercer 28-24
More FCS Predictions
UTRGV at Southeastern Louisiana
Prediction: Southeastern 35-31
UAlbany at New Hampshire
Prediction: UNH 28-17
Eastern Washington at No. 4 Montana State
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
No. 12 Abilene Christian at UIW
Prediction: ACU 31-27
McNeese at Stephen F. Austin
Prediction: SFA 31-17
William & Mary at No. 20 Villanova
Prediction: Villanova 28-20
Penn at No. 10 Lehigh
Prediction: Lehigh 27-17
