Only a pair of overtime losses sit between South Florida and an undefeated record in American Conference play.
The Bulls (14-7, 6-2) suffered one of those losses on Jan. 4 in double OT against UAB, while the other came against Wichita State by one. Since then, USF has won three in a row and each by double-digits.
Temple (13-8, 5-3) is coming off an 80-76 overtime loss to Charlotte and has played in five consecutive games that were decided by six points or less. The Owls are 2-3 in those matchups, including two losses at home.
South Florida at Temple Odds
As of this writing, South Florida is a 7.5-point college basketball betting odds favorite on BetMGM against Temple, while the Over/Under is 156.5 points.
The Moneyline for USF is -325 and +260 for Temple.
South Florida at Temple on TV
The matchup between South Florida and Temple will be televised on ESPN2.
Tonight’s game tips off at 8 p.m. ET.
South Florida at Temple Prediction
I predict South Florida covers the 7.5-point spread. I also predict this game goes over 156.5 points.
Controlling the tempo in this one will be the biggest factor for both teams. Not only did USF first-year coach Bryan Hodgson bring standout Izaiyah Nelson with him from Arkansas State, but he also brought his fast-paced offense.
USF wants to get the ball up the floor as fast as possible and try to keep defenses off-balance. More shots tend to equal more points.
The Bulls’ adjusted tempo of 72.2 possessions per 40 minutes is the 15th fastest in the country, per KenPom. They’re averaging 90.1 points per game, but most of their buckets are quality looks that come in transition, via quick ball reversals, and moving the ball inside-out. Sixty percent of their makes come off an assist, which is the most in the American.
It helps that South Florida has plenty of guys who can score, including five players who are averaging at least 12 points per game. Nelson leads the team with 15.4 points and 10.1 rebounds per game and is probably the frontrunner for the league’s player of the year. Wes Enis nets 15 PPG, and Joseph Pinion adds 14.7 PPG. Both of those guys can light it up from the outside.
Temple prefers to play at a much slower pace and has an adjusted tempo of 64.9. The Owls don’t force many shots, but instead, will be patient and wait for the right opportunity to get downhill.
Both of these squads move the ball really well, but do so with different styles.
It’ll be crucial for Temple to not get rushed and to play the game at its own pace. Turnovers and missed shots will only create more chances for the Bulls to do what they do best. Temple only turns it over on 15% of possessions.
The Owls may be without 6-foot-7 junior Gavin Griffiths, however, who missed the previous game against Charlotte. Griffiths is averaging 11.8 PPG, and his 4.9 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game are both team-highs. He will especially be missed on the glass against a USF team that grabs 15.7 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks second nationally.
Derrian Ford paces Temple with 18 PPG, and Aiden Tobiason scores 14.6 PPG while shooting 48% from the field. The Owls are averaging 75.2 PPG.
This Temple squad is solid and is 20-5 at home in the last two years. It’s hard not to think they’ll keep this game within a few buckets or maybe even win.
I think USF is playing its best basketball of the season right now, though, and the Owls won’t have much of an answer for Nelson, who I expect will lead the Bulls to a fourth-straight win.
