Week 6 of the 2025 FCS season is here, and it features four ranked matchups.
After a 9-2 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 51-13
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Week 6 Predictions
No. 1 NDSU at No. 6 Illinois State Prediction
This is an opportunity for both teams to make a statement.
NDSU has looked terrific in its 4-0 start and is no doubt the No. 1 team in the land. Yet the Bison face some “Yeah, but…” when it comes to their season so far, considering they have the No. 74 strength of schedule, and their past opponents’ record vs. other teams is 6-9. What better way to continue silencing one of the few nitpicky items about the 2025 squad than going on the road and beating the No. 6 team?
However, multiple voters don’t believe Illinois State is close to being the No. 6 team.
Craig Haley doesn’t have ISU in his Top 10. Jamie Williams has ISU No. 12. Zach McKinnell ranked the Redbirds No. 15. I had them No. 11 last week and No. 10 this week, sliding up after Idaho fell back.
So the Redbirds have a chance to prove their national ranking is worthy. Whether it be a win to shake up the national picture, or at least showing it can compete with teams like NDSU and SDSU. ISU has won a lot of games in recent years, but it hasn’t been able to beat the top dogs. In fact, the Redbirds haven’t beaten NDSU since 2010. And the last three games saw results of 42-10, 24-7, and 20-0.
The Redbirds are 3-1 overall and 3-0 vs. the FCS this fall, but they haven’t been able to pull away from opponents like Eastern Illinois (42-30) and North Alabama (38-36 in 2OT). Although the UNA game was a bit wonky with a couple of weather delays.
The offense can be dangerous, led by QB Tommy Rittenhouse (652 yards, 8 TDs, 1 INT), WR and NFL prospect Daniel Sobkowicz (329 yards, 5 TDs), and RB Wenkers Wright (309 yards, 4 TDs). The defense is led by one of the best FCS linebackers in Tye Niekamp, already up to 43 tackles and three TFLs. But the pass defense has struggled, allowing 300.5 passing yards per game, which ranks No. 119 in the FCS.
That’s where the NDSU offense can make its money.
Most people assumed the Bison would get good quarterback play from senior Cole Payton. The question was how good of quarterback play? 2022 Cam Miller good? Or 2024 Cam Miller good? 2016 Easton Stick, or 2018 Easton Stick? One was good. One was elite. Payton has played at an elite level as a first-year starter, completing 72.6% of his passes for 979 yards, eight touchdowns, and no interceptions while adding 277 yards and two scores on the ground. Bryce Lance (337 yards, 2 TDs) is an NFL Draft prospect, and RaJa Nelson (177 yards, 4 TDs) is playing at an All-MVFC level.
I don’t see ISU slowing this NDSU offense down. And the Bison defense, allowing just 7.5 points per game, is too good for this to turn into a shootout.
Prediction: NDSU 38-17
No. 5 Montana State at No. 13 Northern Arizona Prediction
After a sleepy second half in Week 4 vs. Mercyhurst, the Bobcats resembled their usual dominant selves against an inferior opponent. MSU obliterated Eastern Washington last week, winning 57-3 to improve to 3-2 overall and 3-1 vs. the FCS.
The biggest resume-boosting performance for MSU, though, is still its double-overtime loss to No. 2 South Dakota State. That can change this weekend. A road win at NAU would put a ranked W on the resume. While quality losses are a thing for the playoff committee, you’d rather hang your hat on quality wins.
NAU won’t be an easy out, however.
The Lumberjacks are 4-1 overall and 4-0 vs. the FCS. They haven’t lost a home game since Oct. 14, 2023. Their best win was two weeks ago, beating then-No. 19 UIW 31-23. UIW, by the way, then beat No. 12 Abilene Christian 38-7, making NAU’s win age well.
Ty Pennington has delivered on his preseason accolades. He’s thrown for 1,347 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception. Kolbe Katsis has been the go-to target, tallying 24 catches for 444 yards and four scores. They’ll go up against an elite defense.
MSU has allowed seven, zero, and three points in its last three games. The defense allowed just 17 points vs. SDSU in regulation before the two overtimes. Sophomore linebacker Cole Taylor has emerged as a force, totaling 32 tackles and 4.5 TFLs. The stout d-line has allowed Taylor and other defenders to make plays without offensive linemen reaching to the second level.
Offensively, the Cats may have had their breakout performance as they work through the kinks of a new scheme. Justin Lamson has already thrown for 1,005 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions on 72.95% passing. For comparison, Tommy Mellott threw for 1,064 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions in the 2023 season.
MSU will need to contain linebacker Travis Arena, who already has 39 tackles, five TFLs, and four quarterback hurries.
This is a great test for the Cats. If they play sloppy or sleepy like they did against Mercyhurst, this has upset written all over it. NAU has plenty of experience from last year’s playoff squad, and weird things can happen in its dome. But this MSU defense looks different and might be the most complete unit under Brent Vigen. And when you look at NAU’s defense, it is too leaky and hasn’t provided much resistance to its better competition, allowing 31.6 points per game. That’s not ideal against a balanced MSU attack.
Montana State pulls away in the second half.
Prediction: Montana State 35-17
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
No. 16 West Georgia at No. 22 Austin Peay Prediction
I mistakenly fell off the West Georgia wagon last week.
After (correctly) picking the Wolves to upset then-No. 22 Nicholls in Week 2 and (correctly) predicting them to beat SoCon contender ETSU in Week 3, I went against them last week. I thought Southern Utah was due for a win, and UWG was due for a loss. Oops!
Tommy Holden hit a 46-yard field goal with one second left to win 27-24, improving UWG’s record to 5-0 in its second season as an FCS member. (The Wolves won’t be playoff eligible until 2027.)
Another road test comes this week at Austin Peay. The Governors are 3-2, featuring a 34-14 FBS win over Middle Tennessee. The lone FCS loss came against now-No. 19 Abilene Christian, a 45-31 setback that was a more decisive game than the final score. The Govs bounced back last week, dominating Utah Tech 42-10.
Both defenses have been stout. Austin Peay is allowing 20.8 points per game, including holding No. 3 Georgia to 28 points, while allowing 85.2 rushing yards per game. Ellis Ellis Jr. leads the unit with 27 tackles. UWG is allowing 16.0 points per game and 87.8 rushing yards per game. Jay Carter has totaled 34 tackles and 4.5 TFLs, and David Hoage, a 2021 FCS All-American at Northern Colorado before dealing with injuries from 2022-24, already has 26 tackles, nine TFLs, three sacks, and five QB hurries.
In what could be a defensive battle where both rushing attacks are held in check, I lean toward the team with better QB play.
Austin Peay’s Chris Parson, a transfer from Mississippi State, has thrown for 1,026 yards (66.7%), seven touchdowns, and one interception while leading the team with 210 rushing yards and four TDs. UWG’s Davin Wydner is completing just 50.4% of his throws for 772 yards, eight touchdowns, and seven picks. He has rushed for 240 yards and three TDs.
UWG has three straight ranked opponents. I’m still a believer overall, but I gotta stay off the wagon again this week.
Prediction: Austin Peay 27-21
No. 2 South Dakota State at No. 24 Youngstown State Prediction
SDSU enjoyed a get-right game last week, defeating Mercyhurst 51-7, a team YSU beat 24-15 in Week 1. The Jackrabbits’ previous 37-21 win over Drake left a lot of meat on the bone in execution.
At 4-0 with two then-ranked wins (No. 15 Sac State, No. 3 Montana State) and one currently-ranked win (No. 5 Montana State), SDSU now enters MVFC play. YSU will present a good road challenge. The Penguins are 3-1 overall and 3-0 vs. the FCS. They are coming off a bye after winning 31-28 at Towson.
Defending the QB run is key No. 1 for SDSU.
Beau Brungard has rushed for 526 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 7.5 yards per carry and 131.5 rushing yards per game, which is No. 3 in the FCS. He is also completing 66.1% of his passes for 755 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. MSU QB Justin Lamson rushed for 96 yards against the Jacks, and Drake’s Logan Inagawa rushed for 58.
YSU has been solid against the run, allowing 92.8 rushing yards per game. The secondary is more gettable, though, giving up 264.5 passing yards per game, ranking No. 101 in the FCS. SDSU is more than comfortable throwing it. Last week, Chase Mason threw for 321 yards and three scores. He’s having a fantastic debut season, completing 71.6% of his passes for 910 yards, eight TDs, and no interceptions.
YSU will have to muck this game up, making it ugly with no great flow. But the Jacks seem to be clicking on both sides of the ball after last week. It’s tough to find success on this defense, which is allowing 13.8 points per game and under 100 rushing yards per game. SDSU is the better-built team on both sides of the ball, and that will shine through in the second half.
Prediction: SDSU 35-21
More FCS Predictions
No. 8 Rhode Island vs. Brown
Prediction: Rhody 38-21
No. 18 Villanova at New Hampshire
Prediction: UNH 28-24
No. 25 Harvard at Holy Cross
Prediction: Harvard 34-21
ETSU at Furman
Prediction: ETSU 27-24
No. 15 North Dakota at Northern Iowa
Prediction: UND 31-21
Southern Utah at No. 3 Tarleton State
Prediction: Tarleton State 42-24
Stephen F. Austin at UIW
Prediction: UIW 31-28
No. 4 Montana at Idaho State
Prediction: Montana 38-27
Southeastern Louisiana at McNeese
Prediction: Southeastern 34-21
No. 7 UC Davis at Cal Poly
Prediction: UC Davis 31-24
