The 2022 FCS playoffs are here.
Who are the top contenders to win the national title? Who are the long-shots?
Every week, I will rank my favorites to win the championship out of the remaining teams in the field. This list will get knocked down from 24 to 16 to eight to four, and then it’s national title time.
RELATED: Betting Odds To Win The FCS National Title
NOTE: This is NOT a ranking of the 24 best teams in the playoffs. The postseason is all about matchups. Just because a team is listed higher than another team doesn’t necessarily mean they are better, it just means they have a better opportunity to advance further.
24. Davidson
Davidson has now made three straight playoffs out of the non-scholarship Pioneer Football League. It lost 49-14 to Jacksonville State in the spring and 48-21 to Kennesaw last fall. The Wildcats play at Richmond this weekend, a top team in the CAA. The option offense can give teams trouble, especially when they rarely see it, but Richmond’s defense allows a solid 120.2 rushing yards per game.
23. SEMO
Standout QB Paxton DeLaurent has been in a walking boot for the last couple of games, which is not ideal to be playing a backup QB when going up against an attacking Montana defense and a loud crowd. Geno Hess has carried the load even more. He’s been fantastic with 1,446 yards and 19 TDs this season. But going to Missoula and getting a win is a tall task for an OVC squad.
22. Gardner-Webb
Gardner-Webb competed well against ranked Elon this season, losing 30-24. But it also lost 45-14 to ranked Mercer and allowed 40 points to Bryant and 35 points to Campbell in Big South victories. That doesn’t bode well going to an EKU team that scores 35.7 points per game.
21. Saint Francis
Saint Francis will give Delaware a good game. This team went 9-2, and one loss was by 10 at the CAA’s Richmond. Delaware will be a tougher environment, and having success against a great defense will be a big challenge.
20. North Dakota
UND has the toughest first-round draw, going to a Weber State team that was just outside of getting a seed. It won’t be a blowout loss by any means, but playing at a nearly-seeded team has the Fighting Hawks at this spot on the list since we’re also gauging teams on their path to a national championship. Finding success through the air against a great secondary will be difficult.
19. Eastern Kentucky
EKU should like its first-round matchup vs. Gardner-Webb. The Colonels will be able to get their points behind the play of standout QB Parker McKinney. But the following week’s game at No. 5 seed William & Mary and its tough defense will make getting past the second round a big challenge.
18. New Hampshire
UNH is hosting Fordham in what looks to be a 50/50 game. After that, a game at No. 8 seed Holy Cross is the best seed draw you can ask for. UNH’s defense is a concern, giving up 40, 28, and 41 points in the final three regular-season games, the last to unranked Maine in a 42-41 OT win. I may slightly be leaning toward Fordham and its prolific offense here.
17. Fordham
Fordham is tricky because I can see it beating UNH and then beating No. 8 seed Holy Cross in a rematch from the regular season’s overtime loss. A trip to the quarterfinals isn’t an out-of-this-world possibility, but it also could be a risk picking Fordham over a New Hampshire squad that is more physical and athletic than most of Fordham’s competition this season.
16. Southeastern Louisiana University
Southeastern hosting Idaho is an interesting matchup. Can the Lions hold up physically? That will determine how this game goes. The Lions haven’t performed well against teams in the playoffs from the Big Sky and CAA. Odds may slightly favor Idaho here despite it being in Louisiana.
15. Delaware
Delaware shouldn’t overlook Saint Francis in the opening round. The Blue Hens should win if their offense does enough to complement its strong defense in front of a big home crowd. But after that? Going to No. 1 seed SDSU is not the second-round matchup you want.
14. Montana
The Grizzlies were one of the last two teams in the field. They can get back on track with a statement home win over SEMO, who may be without its starting QB. However, the second-round matchup at No. 3 seed NDSU results in Montana not being higher on this list. Going to Fargo, with how Montana’s rushing defense looked in Bozeman, is going to be a tall task to get a win.
13. Idaho
Idaho has a physical front seven, which typically favors teams in the playoffs when playing high-flying offenses. Could Idaho beat Southeastern and then beat No. 6 seed Samford to reach the quarterfinals? That wouldn’t be shocking. But I think we’re more likely to see the Vandals go 1-1 in the next two weeks.
12. Richmond
Richmond has the most favorable first-round matchup vs. Davidson. A win, and it then flies across the country to take on No. 2 seed Sac State. The Hornets are 0-2 in the last two fall playoffs, so this could be an intriguing game to watch. Richmond’s passing offense that averages nearly 300 YPG could give Sac State trouble, but the Hornets do look more built to win games in the bracket.
11. Elon
The pod of Elon at Furman and the winner going to No. 7 seed UIW is the most intriguing to me. Because I can see any one of those teams reaching the quarterfinals. Elon is playing really well offensively and defensively. With it being at Furman, though, the nod goes to Furman.
10. Furman
As stated above, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Elon, Furman, or No. 7 seed UIW reach the quarterfinals. Furman has only lost to one FCS team this year, and that’s to Samford, who is the No. 6 seed. Furman will have a battle with Elon, and if the Paladins win, expect a close game at UIW.
9. Holy Cross (#8 seed)
Holy Cross probably isn’t thrilled with its pod. It will play either a solid CAA team UNH or have a rematch against Patriot League foe Fordham, a team Holy Cross needed overtime and a 2-point conversion to beat. Holy Cross may be the popular team people pick as the seed who can lose right away in the bracket. Even if it gets a win, going to No. 1 seed SDSU is a tough quarterfinal matchup.
8. Samford (#6 seed)
The status of QB Michael Hiers will be something to monitor. He left the last game with a wrist injury suffered in OT in a 50-44 double-overtime win vs. Mercer. Hiers has been awesome this season with 3,290 yards, 35 TDs, and three interceptions. Samford will face a tough test in the second round vs. either Idaho or SLU. That’s no guarantee. But even with a win, it’s hard to see Samford advancing past the quarterfinals with a trip to No. 3 seed NDSU.
7. Weber State
Weber was just outside of getting a seed. It got a home game, which is huge since playing at UND may have tipped the scales on who wins. Weber plays great at home and has the secondary to slow down UND’s attack. A win vs. UND results in Weber going to No. 4 seed Montana State, a rematch of the wild 43-38 MSU win earlier this season. Weber had a lot of reasons to win that game but ultimately didn’t make enough plays at the end. Weber is an unseeded team with the potential to make a good run.
6. Incarnate Word (#7 seed)
I talked about the Elon/Furman/UIW pod above. Any one of these teams can make the quarterfinals. I do think Elon or Furman can give UIW a good game. Yet, it also wouldn’t be surprising if UIW makes a run to the semis by beating No. 2 seed Sac State or Richmond in the quarters. UIW is a team I can see losing right away (which may be more of a past history thing) or winning multiple games.
Lindsey Scott Jr. is having a special year as the Walter Payton Award frontrunner (3,791 yards, 50 TDs, 4 INT, 7 rushing TDs). But we’ve seen WP Award candidates for high-flying Southland offenses hit a wall in past playoffs. Will that happen to UIW this year? A quarterfinal run seems most realistic for this team.
5. William & Mary (#5 seed)
The Tribe can run the ball (274.0 YPG) and play sound defense (20.4 PPG). That’s a recipe to win ball games in the bracket. W&M should like its second-round matchup vs. EKU or Gardner-Webb. And there’s the potential it could get a home quarterfinal game if Weber knocks off No. 4 seed Montana State. How likely that is, I don’t know.
A W&M at MSU quarterfinal would be really fun. It would pit two powerful rushing attacks against each other. W&M has the talent and team balance to make a legit run. But with it being in Bozeman, I’d project an MSU win here to make the semifinals.
4. Montana State (#4 seed)
The Bobcats are arguably the hottest team in the FCS. Its road to return to Frisco, which would mean a Top 2 ranking on this list, is not easy, though. MSU could see a rematch against Big Sky foe Weber State in the second round. The first meeting earlier this season saw a wild game that the Bobcats won 43-38, but Weber had plenty of opportunities to win.
How MSU rolled Montana with its rushing attack led by QBs Tommy Mellott and Sean Chambers, it’s hard to see this team losing that early, especially at home. The Bobcats should be favored in the quarters too, likely facing W&M. But the semis would see a trip to No. 1 seed SDSU, who owns the No. 1 FCS rushing defense and an offense that can hurt you in multiple ways.
MSU lost a ton of talent from last year, but it’s a fair argument to say this year’s team is better. A run to Frisco is realistic, but it would be more realistic if MSU was on Sac State’s side of the bracket and not SDSU’s side.
3. Sacramento State (#2 seed)
The Hornets have already flipped two of three narratives about them.
1) “They haven’t beaten anyone good in the Big Sky.” While this was already a false narrative when looking through their 2019 and 2021 schedules, it became even more false this year after Sac State beat ranked Montana, Idaho, Weber State, and UC Davis.
2). “No one cares or goes to their games.” I don’t know why people still say this. Maybe it’s the camera angles where it doesn’t show the home side often. But Sac State averaged 15,502 fans during the regular season, No. 11 in the FCS.
3) “They can’t get it done in the playoffs.” Sac State will face this doubt (due to its 0-2 record as the No. 4 seed in 2019 and 2021) until it erases this doubt.
Sac State does look more built to make a deep playoff run and flip that last narrative. It is playing better defensively (21.8 PPG and 126.7 rushing YPG). And the offense has a more physical rushing presence (Cameron Skattebo has 1,251 rushing yards and running QB Asher O’Hara has 19 TDs) than airing it out through the air.
The Hornets are in a challenging quarter of the bracket. Richmond, Elon, Furman, and UIW could all present problems. Again, we have to see this program make a run before all doubt leaves our minds.
I do think a semifinal run looks promising. But a potential home game vs. No. 3 seed NDSU will be a battle. Maybe we base things too much on past precedent, but I often say history repeats itself in the bracket. That rings true more often than not. I need to see a Big Sky team beat NDSU before I call it happening.
2. North Dakota State (#3 seed)
NDSU has lost a lot of key players to injury, notably starting center Jalen Sundell, starting RT Mason Miller, NFL Draft prospect TE Noah Gindorff, All-American FB and draft prospect Hunter Luepke (whose timetable to return, if he does, is unknown), and All-American DT Eli Mostaert (who could be returning at some point in the playoffs). There are a few other injuries too that have hampered depth. The Bison also just lost three contributors to the transfer portal: CB Marques Sigle (emerging as a Sophomore All-American and a top corner for NDSU), WR DJ Hart (NDSU’s fourth-leading pass-catcher), and RB Dominic Gonnella (depth running back).
That’s a ton of talent NDSU had at the start of the season that it does not have now.
Yet should we really doubt NDSU’s ability to make a run to Frisco? This program starts to roll in December. The offensive line is still elite. And QB Cam Miller is playing at a high level. Is SEMO or Montana going to beat NDSU in Fargo? Or Samford/SLU/Idaho in the quarters? A potential road trip to Sac State in the semis will be a 50/50 game, especially with Sac State’s run game and the middle of NDSU’s defense being gettable at times. But we also need to see Sac State get past its playoff hurdles first. And Big Sky teams have not matched up well with NDSU.
This Bison team may not have the same firepower as the 2018 or 2019 squads, but we said that last year too at this time and they still won the natty. Maybe it’s because the FCS nationally would like to see a new champion to make things more interesting, but we do seem to find any reason to say the field is wide open:
- 2018 – “NDSU will be too distracted with Chris Klieman and staff members accepting new jobs mid-playoffs.” Result: natty
- 2019 – “The Bison lost too many players and have a new coaching staff.” Result: 16-0
- 2021 – “The Bison look vulnerable this year and don’t look like past years.” Result: natty
- 2022 – “The Bison look vulnerable this year and don’t look like past years. They have a lot of injuries. Is there unrest with players transferring???” Result: ?
1. South Dakota State (#1 seed)
The Jacks are the most complete team in the FCS and are built to win the program’s first FCS title. SDSU can run the ball with Isaiah Davis and Amar Johnson. Mark Gronowski is efficient (2,247 yards, 18 TDs, 5 INT.), and he has next-level targets in TE Tucker Kraft, TE Zach Heins, and WRs Jaxon and Jadon Janke.
SDSU is third in FCS scoring defense (15.5 PPG) and first in run defense (71.4 YPG). The Jacks look to get All-American middle linebacker Adam Bock back from injury to make the unit even stronger. And SDSU doesn’t have to leave Brookings, unlike last year when it flew all over the country.
The Jacks have a favorable path to the semis. A potential game there with No. 4 seed Montana State would be a rematch of last year’s semifinal when the Bobcats beat SDSU in Bozeman. SDSU has the run defense to knock off MSU this season.
And once in Frisco? Can SDSU beat NDSU in the postseason? The Jacks have yet to do that. And picking against NDSU in Frisco is always a risk. Or will it be Sac State, a more favorable matchup for SDSU since the Hornets haven’t experienced Frisco yet? Regardless of the opponent, this SDSU squad looks built physically and mentally to hoist the trophy for the first time.
