The 2024 FCS playoffs are here.
Who are the top contenders to win the national title? Who are the long-shots?
Every week, I will rank my favorites to win the national championship out of the remaining teams in the field. This list will get knocked down from 24 to 16 to eight to four, and then it’s national title time.
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The order of teams takes bracket positioning and matchups into consideration when analyzing how far a team can advance. It isn’t an exact ranking of the best teams 1-24.
24. CCSU
CCSU (7-5) goes to #10 seed Rhode Island in the first round, a team that is 10-2 and looks to do some damage in the bracket.
23. Drake
Non-scholarship Drake will provide an interesting test in the first round when it goes to #13 seed Tarleton State. It’s the first-ever FCS playoff game for Tarleton. And there is a different level of play in the postseason, something newbies sometimes learn the hard way. But, for comparison, Drake played one team this season that is in the bracket, losing 42-3 at South Dakota. Drake did beat Eastern Washington, though, a Big Sky team that pushed top conference foes.
22. Lehigh
Lehigh visits #9 seed Richmond this weekend. The Spiders will be motivated in this one after feeling snubbed from a first-round bye at 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, and 8-0 in the CAA.
21. Tennessee State
The Tigers are a heckuva story and it’s great they got into the playoffs as part of the program turnaround. Unfortunately, they’ll be going to #14 seed Montana, the toughest place to play in the FCS.
20. Eastern Kentucky
EKU has to go to #11 seed Villanova on Saturday. Nova is 6-0 at home this fall and looked pretty dang good in its 38-28 win over Delaware this last week.
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19. UT Martin
UT Martin got the best unseeded first-round draw in terms of seeded opponent, getting paired up with #16 New Hampshire. UNH has been rolling, though, winning four straight to get into the bracket at 8-4.
18. Northern Arizona
NAU gets an interesting draw, going to #15 seed Abilene Christian. This could be one of the closer games in the first round.
17. #15 seed Abilene Christian
ACU gets Northern Arizona in the first round, a tough opening matchup. This could be one of the closer games in the first round. If the Wildcats win, the second round may not go as well at #2 seed NDSU.
16. SEMO
SEMO is not a seeded team, but it will host #12 seed Illinois State due to high school state playoffs being played at ISU’s stadium. This makes it an even more intriguing matchup, but SEMO has been stumbling into the playoffs, losing two of its last three games.
15. #16 seed New Hampshire
UNH could find itself in a close first-round game vs. UT Martin. The Wildcats have been rolling, though, winning four straight to get into the bracket at 8-4. But if they win, they’ll run into a buzzsaw in Bozeman at #1 seed Montana State.
14. #14 seed Montana
Montana gets Tennessee State in the first round. It’s at home and at night, making it even more favorable for the Griz. But after that? Going to #3 seed SDSU may not go well in the second round.
13. #12 seed Illinois State
Illinois State can’t host SEMO due to high school state playoffs being played at its stadium. This makes it an even more intriguing matchup, although SEMO has been stumbling into the playoffs, losing two of its last three games. Illinois State has won five straight. If the Redbirds win again, it’ll have to go to #5 seed UC Davis in the second round.
12. #13 seed Tarleton State
Tarleton is new to the FCS playoffs. The Texans get maybe the easiest draw in the first round, hosting Drake. Drake could hang around if Tarleton looks past them, though. If Tarleton wins, their offensive speed going up against #4 seed South Dakota in a dome could be an interesting game. Tarleton wants to build itself into an FCS contender and has the resources to do so. Playing a title contender like USD will show the Texans what it needs to compete at the highest level within FCS. You don’t know it until you see it, as many southern teams have learned over the years.
11. #11 seed Villanova
Nova looked like a dangerous team this last week, beating rival and rankable Delaware by two scores. The Wildcats could face a tough first-round test vs. EKU, but they’ll be favored to win. And then the second round would be a trip to #6 seed UIW, who has looked beatable in the last two weeks. This would certainly be a competitive second-round game.
10. #10 seed Rhode Island
Rhody should like its first-round draw, hosting CCSU. And then the second round will be a very interesting game, going to #7 seed Mercer. A Top CAA team playing the top SoCon team in the bracket could come with many narratives. The Rams won’t be the favorite, but don’t be surprised if they go to Mercer and be in a position to win the game late.
9. #6 seed UIW
UIW sliding all the way to the No. 6 seed was surprising. Most thought if UIW were to get a seed, it’d be No. 8 behind Mercer and Idaho. UIW hasn’t exactly had emphatic wins down the stretch, beating an SFA team without its starting quarterback 27-20 and then beating struggling East Texas A&M 38-24, a game UIW trailed 24-17 heading into the fourth quarter. The Cardinals will get a good test in the second round, either by EKU or Nova. If they win there, it’s a return trip to #3 seed SDSU, where UIW lost 45-24 but kept it competitive into the second half. Weather may not be as conducive for UIW’s passing attack this time around.
8. #7 seed Mercer
Mercer will likely play #10 Rhode Island in the second round, which could be a very tight ball game. A top CAA team playing the top SoCon team will be very important for the conference narratives. That matchup could go either way. If Mercer were to win, it would face a tall quarterfinal task in going to #2 seed NDSU.
7. #9 seed Richmond
Richmond feels snubbed from a first-round bye at 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, and 8-0 in the CAA. But the Spiders do have a favorable first-round game vs. Lehigh. A win, and then it’s off to #8 seed Idaho in one of the more interesting second-round games. Richmond looks like the most dangerous CAA team, and it may be the most likely 9-16 seed to get a second-round win. But Idaho has a slight advantage with the game being on its home turf.
RELATED: FCS Playoff Bracket
6. #8 seed Idaho
The biggest complaint in the bracket could be Idaho, who questionably got bumped to the #8 seed when it looked like it should have been the 6 or 7 seed. Either way, a very tough quarterfinal game would have loomed at SDSU or NDSU if it had gotten the 6 or 7 slot. But now, Idaho will likely have to play #9 seed Richmond in the second round, who looks like the most dangerous CAA team. A win there, and it’s a return trip to #1 seed Montana State, where the Vandals lost 38-7 in October. Those are two tough draws.
5. #5 seed UC Davis
If NDSU got the #2 seed over SDSU due to its overall body of work, one could argue UC Davis should have gotten the #4 seed over USD. Davis is 10-2 overall, 10-1 vs. the FCS, two Top 10 wins, and its only FCS loss a two-point game vs. now-No. 1 Montana State. Davis and USD have a nice pathway to a quarterfinal matchup, where USD’s defense and home-field give it a slight edge.
4. #4 seed South Dakota
The Coyotes proved they are a legit national title contender on Saturday, knocking off No. 1 NDSU. But they have the toughest path to Frisco out of this Top 4. USD will have to beat likely Tarleton State in the second round, and then UC Davis in the quarterfinals, another team that has proven it belongs in the national title picture. If the Yotes advance to the semifinals, they will likely play in Bozeman, which will be the toughest place to get a win in this year’s bracket.
3. #3 seed SDSU
If SDSU makes it to Frisco, the Jackrabbits may be a slight betting favorite over the #1 team on this list, Montana State. But the Jacks first have to go through NDSU in the semifinals, assuming both handle business in the second round and quarterfinals. Teams can’t look ahead, but we can. The Fargodome gives NDSU an advantage over SDSU, although the Jacks led for most of the game earlier this year in Fargo. SDSU has quietly looked like arguably the best team in the FCS over the last few weeks. The Jacks are playing much better offensively than when it played NDSU, plus having All-American safety Tucker Large back with his coverage abilities could have been a difference-maker in NDSU’s game-winning drive. We’ll keep NDSU slightly ahead of SDSU in this ranking due to the home-field advantage.
2. #2 seed NDSU
If NDSU makes it to Frisco, the Bison may be a slight betting favorite over the team below, Montana State. But the Bison will first have to go through SDSU in the semifinals, assuming both handle business in the second round and quarterfinals. Teams can’t look ahead, but we can. The Fargodome gives NDSU an advantage over SDSU, although the Jacks led for most of the game earlier this year in Fargo. NDSU’s senior class sticking together last offseason makes them seem destined to reclaim the FCS throne, but the USD loss this last weekend potentially revealed some flaws. We’ll keep NDSU slightly ahead of SDSU in this ranking due to the home-field advantage.
1. #1 seed Montana State
Montana State has the easiest path to Frisco, as it should be for the No. 1 seed. NDSU and SDSU have to go through each other for one to get to Texas, which is partially the reason why MSU tops this list of ranking the best chances to win the natty. But MSU’s play also makes the Bobcats deserving of No. 1. Their defense continues to show it is legit, and MSU’s offense looks like the best in the FCS. This fall was pointed at as “the year” for Montana State, even going back to the 2021 and 2022 deep playoff runs when MSU was playing a lot of freshmen and sophomores. We’ll see if this experienced and talented senior class can deliver that elusive national title. If they do, they’ll likely have to beat either NDSU or SDSU in Frisco, teams that have ended MSU’s season every year since 2018.
