Every year, FBS teams hand out six-figure paychecks — and sometimes even more — to FCS opponents. And every year, multiple FBS teams find themselves licking their wounds after what was thought to be a guaranteed victory.
Last season featured 12 FCS wins over FBS programs, with Montana’s takedown of No. 20 Washington marking the first FCS win over a ranked FBS opponent since North Dakota State stunned No. 13 Iowa in 2016. Here’s a look at five games this month in which FBS teams could find themselves on FCS upset alert:
Nicholls at South Alabama, Sept. 3
Nicholls enters the season unranked in the FCS coaches poll after going 6-5 last year, but there’s reason to believe the Colonels can get back to the level they were at when they made three straight playoff appearances from 2017-19. They had some notable departures this offseason, including HERO Sports All-Americans Dai’Jean Dixon (WR) and P.J. Burkhalter (OL), as well as starting quarterback Lindsey Scott Jr.
However, they return Walter Payton Award watch list honoree Julien Gums and Freshman All-Americans Evan Roussel (OL) and Collin Guggenheim (RB), so the No. 5 rushing attack in the FCS should remain at a high level. South Alabama seems to be a beatable opponent, entering the game at No. 107 in ESPN’s Football Power Index.
South Dakota State at Iowa, Sept. 3
Iowa’s appearance on this list has less to do with the abilities of a team that is coming off a Big Ten title game appearance, and more to do with South Dakota State’s immense potential. The Jackrabbits went a combined 19-6 during the 2021 spring and fall seasons, a stretch that included two wins over reigning national champion North Dakota State and a 42-23 thrashing of FBS Colorado State.
Their defensive front is deep and talented, Tucker Kraft and Zach Heins form one of the top tight end tandems in all of college football, and Isaiah Davis — who rushed for 499 yards and six touchdowns in the first three games of the playoffs after returning from injury — has Walter Payton Award potential written all over him. Quarterback Mark Gronowski, who earned the MVFC’s top offensive, newcomer, and freshman honors while helping lead SDSU to the 2021 spring title game, has recovered from a knee injury that kept him out last fall and could be the X-factor that puts his team over the top.
Incarnate Word at Nevada, Sept. 10
Of all the games mentioned here, this one leans more toward a college football odds spread play than a moneyline bet. Nonetheless, a Nevada team that lost the masterminds behind the nation’s No. 6 passing attack this offseason is a prime upset candidate after struggling with arguably the worst team in the FBS (New Mexico State) at times during last week’s season opener. The Wolf Pack took nearly 20 minutes to score and failed to find the end zone in the second half of a 23-12 win that was a one-score game until the final two minutes.
Incarnate Word lost head coach Eric Morris and star quarterback Cameron Ward to Washington State earlier this year, but with Scott transferring in from Nicholls, the Cardinals have a shot to build off last fall’s Southland Conference championship.
Montana State at Oregon State, Sept. 17
After making a run to the FCS title game in Brent Vigen’s first year as head coach, the Bobcats enter the season at No. 4 in the FCS coaches poll. They lose perhaps the top linebacker in the FCS in Troy Andersen, as well as several starters on the offensive line, but they still bring back five all-conference picks. It’s unclear if first-team All-American running back Isaiah Ifanse will be available for this game after undergoing surgery this offseason, but there is still plenty of depth at the position.
And you can’t talk about Montana State without mentioning Tommy Mellott, the freshman phenom who racked up 910 total yards and 10 touchdowns during MSU’s three postseason wins last fall.
North Dakota State at Arizona, Sept. 17
After getting upset by a Northern Arizona team that went 5-6 last season, the Wildcats can’t feel good about the defending FCS champions coming to town. The Bison — who have nine wins over FBS teams since 2006, including six against Power Five opponents — bring back the bulk of its contributors from last year’s national title squad. Don’t be surprised to see NDSU favored in this game when the odds come out.
