The 2025 FCS playoffs are down to four teams as the chase for a national championship continues.
After a 2-2 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.
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Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 137-50
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Playoffs Semifinal Predictions
#3 Montana at #2 Montana State Prediction
A rematch of all rematches. After winning 31-28 at Montana in late November, No. 2 seed Montana State now hosts No. 3 seed Montana in the FCS semifinals.
The most passionate rivalry in FCS. First-ever FCS playoff meeting. Network TV. And a national championship berth on the line.
This is as good as it gets in the FCS playoffs. The celebration will be legendary for the winner. And the pain will be immense for the loser.
Montana State went to Montana and won 31-28 in the Brawl of the Wild a month ago. It was the first time since 2018 that a road team won. Another streak is still currently alive, and that’s 2015 being the last time Montana won in Bozeman.
Does home-field advantage come into effect again? The last time a road team won in the FCS semifinals was 2016.
The Brawl 1.0 was a fabulous back-and-forth last month. Montana could say if not for two uncharacteristic mistakes — a pick-6 after a ball was deflected and a blocked field goal — the Grizzlies would have won that game. Montana State can counter and say it made those key plays to win the game and that it arguably could have won by 10 points instead of three. The Bobcats sealed the game with a 14-play, 72-yard drive that took up the final 6:53, and the only thing preventing them from scoring after getting into the red zone was the ability to kneel out the clock.
Since that game, Montana has looked like the sharper team in the playoffs.
The Griz defeated South Dakota State 50-29 and South Dakota 52-22. Keali’i Ah Yat has gone from star to superstar, throwing 360 yards with four touchdowns and 305 yards with three scores in the playoffs. After a quiet game against the Cats, wide receiver Michael Wortham has caught 19 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the two postseason games, plus 65 yards and a score on the ground.
Add in All-American running back Eli Gillman (1,434 yards, 20 TDs this season), Freshman All-American wide receiver Brooks Davis (680 yards, 5 TDs), and reliable pass-catchers Blake Bohannon and Drew Deck (both over 400 receiving yards), and Montana’s offense can come at opponents in waves.
RELATED: FCS National Championship Odds
Montana State had a choppy 21-13 win over Yale in the second round. The Cats looked much more impressive last week in a 44-28 win over SFA. But they allowed the Lumberjacks back into it after a 24-0 lead, allowing 20 second-half points. MSU was also flagged with 12 penalties for 100 yards.
The Cats aim to replicate the crisp offensive operation they displayed for most of the regular season.
Justin Lamson being efficient is key for MSU to strike its offensive balance. He is completing 72.3% of his passes for 2,683 yards, 22 touchdowns, and three interceptions, along with 661 yards and 12 scores on the ground. He was excellent in Missoula, showing off his gamer mentality. MSU’s ground game has continued to roll this season behind the duo of Julius Davis (1,044 yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (916 yards, 13 TDs). The run game, combined with a quick-hitting passing game, keeps a defense unbalanced. Taco Dowler leads the pass-catchers with 789 yards and five touchdowns.
Montana’s defense, an area of concern at different points in the regular season, looks much improved in the playoffs, especially against the run. The Griz allowed 61 rushing yards on 24 carries (2.5 YPC) against SDSU, and 122 rushing yards on 31 carries (3.9 YPC) against USD. The return of standout cornerback Kyon Loud has been crucial in that improvement, allowing Montana to do more against the run while trusting their corners to man up on the outside. Another key factor is linebacker Solomon Tuliaupupu elevating his play. The USC transfer has been a disruptor in the playoffs, including three TFLs against SDSU.
Montana needs to dig down and control the MSU ground game, something it wasn’t able to do in the Brawl. The Griz can then send more pressure against the pass, and when/if Lamson gets the ball off quickly, the Griz will need to tackle well in space.
MSU’s defense also has quite the task on its hands.
For how much A-list star power Montana has offensively, the offensive line is probably at a B-level. Good enough, but not great. MSU’s d-line is its strength, and it’s going to need a big game to bottle up Gillman. If the Cats can slow down the run, it forces Ah Yat to win the game with his arm. He’s more than capable of doing that, but his mobility is restricted due to a knee injury. Pressure by Kenneth Eiden IV (14 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, 7 QBH), Zac Crews (7.5 TFLs, 5 sacks, 4 QBH), and Hunter Parsons (9.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 6 QBH) will be crucial. Crowd noise also helps a d-line get off the ball quicker.
Paul Brott (20 tackles, 3 TFLs, 3 QBH) is a key cog on the interior defensive line. He’s been grinding through an ankle injury, and his health/production is massive for this defense. Caden Dowler (90 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, and six interceptions) will need to continue being a playmaker against the run and defending the pass.
Special teams will also play a role — return game, punt protection, staying disciplined in coverage lanes, field goal operation, etc. MSU’s Taco Dowler and Montana’s Drew Deck can flip a field in a hurry on punt return.
The intensity in the stands and on the field, the physicality and thumping going on between whistles, and the level of talent on display are going to make for a glorious game.
It reminds me a bit of last year’s SDSU at NDSU semifinal game. The Bison narrowly beat the Jackrabbits in the regular season. But in the second round and quarterfinals, SDSU looked like a better team than NDSU in how it was playing. It’s a similar storyline heading into Saturday’s rivalry game. The slight difference is that NDSU won at home in the regular season, compared to MSU winning on the road. The Bison ended up narrowly beating SDSU in the semifinals, even though the two playoff games suggested the Jacks carried in better momentum.
A lot has happened outside of the norm in this year’s FCS playoff field. Typical powers have lost early. New blood is deep in the bracket. And plenty of road teams have won. But that’s on the other side of the bracket. I think the norm continues on this side. That norm is the team who’s better in the trenches wins deep in the playoffs, and home-field advantage is a difference-maker.
Prediction: Montana State 35-28
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Illinois State at #12 Villanova Prediction
Two historic playoff runs collide, and one memorable season has to end. No. 12 seed Villanova hosts unseeded Illinois State in the FCS semifinals.
Road warriors. A team of destiny. Defying the odds. Everyone has doubted us.
Which team am I talking about?
The answer: Both.
Villanova and Illinois State are in the same boat as far as their unexpected runs to the semifinals. Now they collide in an unfamiliar matchup, yet it’s between two schools with the same style — nothing flashy, physical in the trenches, and gritty in their ability to win different styles of games.
Nova is riding an 11-game winning streak. The Wildcats shellacked Harvard 52-7 in the first round. They then hit the road, beating No. 5 seed Lehigh 14-7, handing the Mountain Hawks their first and only loss of the season. Nova went to No. 4 seed Tarleton State in the quarterfinals, a team viewed as the favorites to reach the national title game on this side of the bracket after North Dakota State lost. The Wildcats defeated Tarleton 26-21. Late-game defensive stands resulted in gutsy road wins for Nova.
After a head-scratching 37-7 home loss to Southern Illinois in the regular-season finale, Illinois State was one of the last four teams selected into the playoffs at 8-4. As an unseeded team, the Redbirds have won three straight road games in the bracket. They beat No. 16 seed Southeastern Louisiana 21-3, then shocked the nation with a 29-28 win at No. 1 NDSU, and followed that up with a 42-31 win at No. 8 seed UC Davis. ISU has gone south, north, west, and now goes east.
This is going to be a classic black-and-blue tackle football game.
And that’s what wins games deep in the FCS playoffs. Both teams want to get after the opposition in the trenches and establish the run/stop the run. But both squads also have strong quarterback play and dangerous weapons on the outside.
Villanova has shown off impressive depth at running back. David Avit entered this season among the best returning backs in the FCS. He rushed for 683 yards and eight touchdowns this year before an injury sidelined him in early November. There is a chance Avit returns this week. Ja’briel Mace has emerged as the top back with Avit sidelined, rushing for 887 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Isaiah Ragland is a productive back as well, totaling 721 yards and two TDs on the ground.
Illinois State deploys the RB duo of Victor Dawson (1,096 yards, 4 TDs) and Wenkers Wright (591 yards, 5 TDs). Wright hasn’t played since the first round, but Dawson has stepped up in the last two playoff games, rushing for 137 and 148 yards.
Villanova allows 127.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 23 in the FCS. Linebacker Shane Hartzell is a multi-year standout and has tallied 94 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, and 8.5 sacks this fall. Christian Sapp adds 63 tackles, while Omari Bursey and Richie Kimmel have combined for 16.5 TFLs.
ISU allows 134.6 rushing yards per game (No. 36 in the subdivision). Tye Niekamp is a beast at linebacker, racking up 150 tackles, 13.5 TFLs, two sacks, one interception, and six pass breakups. Lashavion Brown adds 87 stops. ISU has a physical and active defensive line, led by Garret Steffen (54 tackles, 10 TFLs, 6.5 sacks) and Jake Anderson (50 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3 sacks).
Controlling the trenches will be key.
But this game may be won by the quarterback who delivers the biggest throws in the biggest moments.
The running backs will get theirs on both sides. They’re too good not to. But neither rushing attack will run wild. Both fronts are too good to get rolled on the ground.
Villanova’s Pat McQuaide is playing the best ball of his career after transferring from Nicholls, completing 60.4% of his passes for 2,924 yards, 24 TDs, and three interceptions. The Wildcats struck gold with another FCS transfer. Luke Colella, arriving from Princeton, has 73 catches for 1,013 yards and eight scores.
ISU’s Tommy Rittenhouse is completing 65.5% of his throws for 3,006 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Daniel Sobkowicz is among the best receivers in the FCS, tallying 71 catches for 992 yards and 16 touchdowns. The 6-foot-3 target has grabbed five touchdown catches in the last two games.
ISU’s offensive line has protected well, allowing 1.27 sacks per game (No. 20 in the FCS) and owning PFF’s No. 2 pass-blocking grade. If Nova can’t generate pressure, Rittenhouse and Sobkowicz will feast. The Wildcats own the No. 11 PFF pass-rush grade.
Both secondaries have been gettable at times this year. ISU allows 246.2 passing yards per game, which is No. 103 in the subdivision. Villanova allows 202.0 (No. 39).
I haven’t settled on a pick until this very typing.
So …
I’ll side with Villanova. I think the Wildcats are a slightly more complete team and have played with better consistency down the stretch. Illinois State overcame the travel fatigue narrative last week. As the Redbirds hit their fourth straight road playoff game, going south to north, and now west coast to east coast, maybe this is the week the home team has just a little more juice to finish the game on top. Especially when Villanova plays a grind-it-out style compared to Davis, who lacked the physicality.
Villanova is 7-0 at home in 2025. And the last time a home team lost in the FCS semifinals was 2016. But … ISU is 8-0 on the road vs. FCS opponents this year.
I predicted both of these teams to win in the first round when many others were picking their opponents. However, I picked against both in the second round and quarterfinals. I’ll either predict correctly after a two-week skid. Or I’ll wrongly pick against a team for the third straight game. (And it’d be a fourth straight game in Nashville.)
Prediction: Villanova 28-24
