The result of Saturday’s game between No. 4 Montana State and No. 5 Eastern Washington will shift the seeding outlook for the FCS playoffs.
EWU is currently 7-1 overall with an FBS win (UNLV), a non-counter win, and a ranked win against Montana (No. 4 then and No. 11 now). The loss is to Weber State, who is now ranked No. 24. The Eagles go to No. 8 UC Davis and Portland State in the final two weeks.
MSU is also 7-1 overall with a 7-0 record against the FCS and a 19-16 loss at FBS Wyoming. The Bobcats have one ranked win against Weber (No. 19 then, No. 24 now). Their final two games are versus Idaho and at No. 11 Montana.
What does this weekend’s result mean for both teams?
Let’s start with if the home team wins.
RELATED: FCS Bracketology
If EWU Wins…
EWU winning puts the Eagles in position for a Top 4 seed. If they beat MSU but then lost to either UC Davis or Portland State, a 5-8 seed is still likely with a 9-2 record, an FBS win, and two ranked wins against Montana and MSU (and maybe a third ranked win against UC Davis. Playing at Portland State is no guarantee win).
Basically, the Eagles can afford one more loss somewhere and be a seed. If they win out, they could rise as high as a Top 2 seed. JMU and Sam Houston are very likely going to win their remaining games and be in the discussion for the No. 1, 2, 3, or 4 seeds. EWU will also be in that conversation if it wins out. NDSU will be in the driver’s seat for a Top 2 seed if the Bison finish undefeated, but they have a 50/50 game this weekend at SDSU.
EWU winning out means a 10-1 record with an FBS win and three ranked wins. How would that stack up with a 10-0 defending national champs Sam Houston who may only have one win against a currently-ranked team? Or a 10-1 JMU team with an FCS loss to Villanova and two wins against currently-ranked teams (including Weber)? If NDSU wins out, the Bison would be 11-0 with three or four ranked wins. A 10-1 EWU team is somewhere in that mix for a Top 4 seed.
An EWU win means an MSU loss, obviously.
Let’s assume the Bobcats beat Idaho on Nov. 13. If they lose to EWU and beat Montana, the Bobcats are a 5-8 seed with a 9-1 record versus the FCS (9-2 overall) with two ranked wins. If they lose to EWU and Montana, an 8-3 MSU team is most likely playing in the first round.
If Montana State Wins…
MSU beat Weber 13-7 on the road. A week later, Weber beat EWU 35-34 in Cheney. MSU and Weber have similar playing styles, so perhaps Weber showed the formula to beat EWU. Let’s say the Bobcats establish the run and their disruptive defensive line gets EWU’s high-scoring offense out of rhythm. If MSU wins, what does that mean?
If the Bobcats win out, all of a sudden they are in the discussion for a Top 4 seed. They would be 10-0 against the FCS with three ranked wins over Weber, EWU, and Montana. How would that stack up against an undefeated SHSU team, a 10-1 JMU team, and potentially an 11-0 NDSU team? MSU would have more ranked wins than SHSU and JMU. Is a Top 2 seed possible if MSU wins out and NDSU loses to SDSU, along with the likelihood of SHSU and JMU winning out? It can be.
Sorry Idaho fans, we’re assuming you’re going to lose in Bozeman on Nov. 13. If MSU beats EWU but loses at Montana, a 5-8 seed is likely to happen with a 9-1 record versus the FCS (9-2 overall) with two ranked wins against Weber and EWU.
A loss Saturday puts EWU on a two-game losing streak. And with tough road trips at UC Davis and Portland State, EWU can go anywhere from a Top 2 seed by winning its final three games to playing in the first round with two more losses. The Eagles should be in the 5-8 seed range if they lose to MSU and beat UC Davis and Portland State. As stated above, the Eagles can afford one more loss somewhere and still earn a seed.
A lot of “ifs” here, but there is a lot on the line in this game and it’s always entertaining looking at different scenarios.
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