With one week remaining in the spring FCS season and just six at-large bids in the 16-team playoff bracket, the number of teams still in contention is slimming down. Let’s take a look at the teams that still have playoff hopes.
Keep in mind some of these teams’ chances are incredibly slim, but they will still be tuning in on Selection Sunday just in case. If you have less than three losses in the spring and are in a multi-bid conference, you’re still holding onto some hope.
RELATED: FCS Spring Bracketology
Big Sky
Weber State — Claimed the AQ.
Eastern Washington — The Eagles will get an at-large bid with a 5-1 finish to the regular season.
UC Davis — The likelihood of the Aggies getting an at-large bid isn’t high, but it is possible. They finished the regular season with a 3-2 record. Those two losses came against Weber State and EWU. UC Davis has been ranked in the 10-15 range most of this season.
Big South
Monmouth — Claimed the AQ.
Kennesaw State — The Big South was already going to have a hard time getting an at-large bid. But it got even tougher when Monmouth defeated KSU 42-17 last week. The Owls aren’t completely out of playoff contention. But with a 4-1 overall record, a 3-1 record against FCS opponents, and a Massey strength of schedule ranked 79th, it would be a big surprise if the Owls got a bid.
CAA
Delaware — If Delaware (3-0 overall, 3-0 CAA) beats Villanova (2-1, 2-1), it would likely eliminate Nova from playoff contention. The Blue Hens would then be involved in a tiebreaker vote among conference ADs with the winner of the Richmond (3-0, 3-0) at James Madison (4-0, 2-0) game to determine the AQ. If the Blue Hens don’t get the AQ vote, they are sure to get an at-large bid. If Delaware loses to Nova, it could be left on the bubble if the CAA only gets two at-large bids, especially if Richmond beats JMU.
Villanova — Nova is likely out of the playoffs with a loss and a 2-2 record. If the Wildcats win, they would earn an at-large bid while the winner of the Richmond-JMU game gets the AQ.
Richmond — If Richmond beats JMU and Nova beats Delaware, the Spiders get the AQ. If Richmond and Delaware win, it would come down to the tiebreaker vote. If the Spiders don’t get the AQ vote, they are sure to get an at-large bid. If Richmond loses to JMU, it could be left on the bubble if Nova beats Delaware and the CAA only gets two at-large bids.
James Madison — If JMU beats Richmond and Nova beats Delaware, the Dukes get the AQ. If JMU and Delaware win, it would come down to the tiebreaker vote. If the Dukes don’t get the AQ vote, they are sure to get an at-large bid. If JMU loses to Richmond, it isn’t a guarantee the Dukes get an at-large bid if Nova beats Delaware. But the chances of a 4-1 JMU team that’s been ranked No. 1 most of this season getting left out of the playoffs is slim. The committee would very likely take a one-loss JMU team over a one-loss Delaware team in this scenario.
RELATED: Richmond @ JMU Preview
MVFC
Missouri State — Missouri State’s regular season is done. The Bears are 5-4 overall (lost to Central Arkansas twice and to Oklahoma in the fall) and are 5-1 in the spring MVFC schedule. The Bears clinched a share of the MVFC title, but the AQ will go to the winner of SDSU vs. NDSU. Mo State’s only spring loss is to NDSU and it has four straight wins, three against ranked opponents at the time of the game (No. 21 USD, No. 10 UNI, No. 10 SIU). If the MVFC gets three of the six at-large bids, the Bears are in. If the Valley only gets two, the Bears won’t jump a one-loss UND team, they won’t jump a two-loss NDSU team, and it’s possible, but not likely they would jump a two-loss SDSU team. Getting that third at-large bid is key for Mo State’s playoff hopes. And there’s maybe a 40 percent chance the Valley gets three at-large bids.
North Dakota — UND’s final regular-season game against Youngstown State was canceled on Wednesday, ending its regular season with a 4-1 record. The bad news for the Fighting Hawks is they will have to wait another week before playing a game. They last played on March 20 in a loss at NDSU. The good news is UND doesn’t need to stress about a potential road loss, which could have knocked them out of the playoffs. The Fighting Hawks clinched a share of the MVFC title, but the AQ will go to the winner of SDSU-NDSU. With a head-to-head win against SDSU, the Hawks will get an at-large bid.
North Dakota State — The Bison are the AQ with a win. They get an at-large bid with a loss.
South Dakota State — The Jackrabbits are the AQ with a win. They very likely get an at-large bid with a loss, but if it’s a decisive NDSU victory then the Jacks are nervous about UND and Missouri State taking the two at-large bids. Things are gravy if the MVFC gets three at-large bids.
RELATED: What’s At Stake For SDSU vs. NDSU?
NEC
Sacred Heart — Claimed the AQ.
OVC
Jacksonville State — Claimed the AQ.
Murray State — Murray State finishes the regular season 5-2 with no wins against currently-ranked teams, an SOS ranked 58th, and two straight losses. The Racers will be in the conversation for an at-large bid, but it doesn’t have a good argument over other bubble teams.
Austin Peay — Austin Peay is 4-5 overall and 4-3 against FCS opponents. It isn’t likely the Govs will get an at-large bid, but they are still at least in the discussion because of their 4-2 OVC record that includes two straight wins against JSU and Murray State to end the regular season.
Patriot
Holy Cross — Bucknell hosts Holy Cross for the Patriot League championship game to determine the AQ.
Buckell — Holy Cross goes to Bucknell for the Patriot League championship game to determine the AQ.
Pioneer
Davidson — Claimed the AQ.
SoCon
VMI — VMI is 5-1 in the standings. The Keydets will clinch the AQ with a win against The Citadel or a Mercer loss. If VMI loses and doesn’t get the auto-bid, it’ll be nervous about its chances to get an at-large bid. A 4-2 ETSU team with a head-to-head win against a 5-2 VMI team has the better argument.
East Tennessee State — ETSU’s regular season is done at 4-2. A two-loss SoCon team may not get one of the six at-large bids. But ETSU’s best hope is for VMI to lose to The Citadel and Mercer to beat Samford. That would give Mercer the AQ and ETSU would have a better argument for an at-large bid than VMI with its head-to-head win.
Mercer — Mercer needs to beat Samford and The Citadel to beat VMI to get the AQ. With a win against Samford and VMI winning to get the AQ, Mercer has a decent shot at an at-large bid. The Bears would finish 6-5 overall but would be 6-2 in the SoCon with five straight wins, three of which came against ranked opponents at the time of the game.
Southland
Sam Houston — Claimed the AQ.
Southeastern Louisiana — Southeastern Louisiana has two losses already, but it could end the season on a three-game winning streak with two straight ranked wins if it beats Southern Illinois on the road. The Lions would then be 5-2. The last at-large bid could come down to a two-loss team from the Southland, SoCon, or OVC. A 5-2 SLU team may have the best argument.
Incarnate Word — UIW’s chance at the playoffs are mostly gone after suffering its second-straight loss, this one giving Northwestern State its first win of the season. But it’s not impossible for the Cardinals to get an at-large bid. If they beat No. 5 SHSU this weekend and finish 4-2, maybe they get an at-large bid. But that is the biggest maybe out of all of the scenarios in this article.
