Two games remain in the 2021 FCS regular season until Selection Sunday. Right now, the playoff bubble seems packed. It can get more loaded or loosen up depending on results in the last two weeks.
Below are Week 11 games that will impact the playoff picture. Some with big impacts. Some with smaller impacts.
Robert Morris at Monmouth
Why: Monmouth and Kennesaw are 5-0 in the Big South standings, and the two play each other next week. Bubble teams will want to see Monmouth get knocked off and KSU win the auto-bid. If Monmouth won the auto-bid, KSU will get an at-large bid. If KSU gets the auto-bid, Monmouth won’t have a strong at-large resume.
North Dakota State at Youngstown State
Why: NDSU is in the hunt for a Top 4 seed. How do the Bison look after losing for the first time this season?
Holy Cross at Fordham
Why: Both teams are 4-0 in the Patriot League, which is a one-bid conference.
Stony Brook at Villanova
Why: Nova will likely get a seed if it wins out vs. Stony Brook and at Delaware. It’s a lock to make the playoffs with one more win.
New Hampshire at Rhode Island
Why: Rhody is 6-3 overall with an FBS win against UMass. It started 5-0 before losing three straight games to FCS opponents by large margins. The Rams are back in the conversation after beating UMass this last weekend. If they win out against vs. UNH and at Elon, they are very likely in the field with eight wins. If they split, a 7-win Rhody team may be left out. A 7-win SIU team in 2019 with a UMass win did not make the bracket.
Southern Illinois at Indiana State
Why: With two straight losses, SIU is now 6-2 against the FCS (6-3 overall) and no longer in the running for a seed. The Salukis play at Indiana State and vs. YSU. They will want to hit eight wins to lock themselves into an at-large bid.
Eastern Kentucky at Sam Houston
Why: SHSU will be a Top 2 seed if it avoids an upset loss in the final two weeks. EKU’s shot at an at-large bid took a hit after losing to SFA last week. But if the Colonels upset SHSU and beat JSU, it would be in at 8-3 overall and 8-2 against the FCS.
ETSU at Western Carolina
Why: ETSU is 8-1 overall with seven D1 wins, including an FBS win over Vanderbilt. The Bucs are a lock to make the field with one more win, and potentially a seed if they win out.
VMI at Furman
Why: With two losses in SoCon play, VMI’s most realistic way into the playoffs is as an at-large bid. If the Keydets win out, they are 8-3 overall and 8-2 against the FCS with wins against UTC and Mercer, two SoCon teams also in the playoff mix. That will get them in the bracket. Splitting the final two games has VMI on the bubble with seven wins.
Delaware at Richmond
Why: Delaware’s shot at the playoffs isn’t 100 percent dead yet. If the Blue Hens beat Richmond on the road and No. 8 Villanova at home, they finish with seven wins and a big resume-booster vs. Nova, which the committee may like and give them an at-large bid.
South Dakota State at South Dakota
Why: If the Jacks win out, they are a seed. USD, who is 6-3, needs to beat either SDSU or NDSU to hit seven wins and have a shot at the playoffs.
Kennesaw State at North Alabama
Why: Kennesaw is undefeated against the FCS and in the hunt for a seed.
Chattanooga at Mercer
Why: If UTC wins out, the Mocs are the SoCon’s auto-bid. Mercer currently is 5-1 in the SoCon standings with five total D1 wins. The Bears have only played one top SoCon team so far, resulting in a 45-7 loss to VMI. They play the two other top teams to end the regular season – UTC and ETSU. They need to win both to hit seven D1 wins.
Idaho at Montana State
Why: A week after a high-profile win at EWU and a week before going to rival Montana, the Bobcats need to handle business against a struggling Idaho team to stay in contention for a Top 2 seed.
Florida A&M at Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Why: If FAMU wins out and finishes second in the SWAC East, the Rattlers will be 9-2 with eight D1 wins. That will have them in the mix for an at-large bid.
Northern Iowa at Missouri State
Why: With a game next week at 0-9 Dixie State, Mo State can hit seven D1 wins Saturday with a ranked victory against UNI. A win essentially locks Mo State into the playoffs with its eighth win coming at Dixie. That would also mean a fifth loss for UNI. UNI does have three ranked wins against teams that will be in the playoffs (Sac State, SDSU, and SIU), but a 6-5 team is a longshot to make the bracket this year.
Montana at Northern Arizona
Why: If the Griz win, they hit eight D1 wins with a P5 win. That locks them into the bracket regardless of next week’s result against Montana State.
James Madison at William & Mary
Why: JMU will be somewhere in the mix for a Top 4 seed if it wins out to finish 10-1. William & Mary is currently 6-3 overall and 6-2 against the FCS. With a dominating win against Villanova, who has a chance at a seed, W&M needs to win one more time to have a good shot at the field. It hosts Richmond next week.
UIW at Nicholls
Why: UIW and SLU are 5-1 in the Southland with UIW owning the head-to-head. Nicholls is 4-2 with the losses to UIW and SLU. It is on a three-game winning streak and plays … UIW and SLU to end the regular season. As they say, it’s hard to beat a team twice.
Stephen F. Austin at Central Arkansas
Why: After beating playoff-hopeful EKU last week, SFA is 6-3 overall and 5-2 against the FCS. If the Lumberjacks win out at UCA and at Lamar to hit seven D1 wins, they will be in consideration. UCA is 5-4 but has a non-counter win. The best the Bears can do is win out against SFA and at Tarleton State to hit six D1 wins, which likely won’t be enough for a bid.
Northwestern State at SLU
Why: Northwestern State is struggling at 2-7. It’s a good opportunity for SLU to regain momentum after suffering its first loss last weekend and before heading into a big game against Nicholls next week.
UT Martin at Tennessee Tech
Why: UT Martin is 8-1 overall, 8-0 against the FCS, and 4-0 in the OVC. SEMO is 3-1 with the loss to UT Martin and Tennesse State is 3-2 in conference play. Tennessee Tech is 1-3 in the OVC standings. Every OVC team besides UT Martin and Tennessee State (5-4 overall) has a losing overall record. The OVC is a one-bid league unless something crazy happens and UT Martin somehow ends up not getting the auto-bid due to losing its final two games, which seems unlikely.
Eastern Washington at UC Davis
Why: With two losses in a row, EWU (7-2 overall, six D1 wins, FBS win, ranked Montana win) needs to win out to get a seed. UC Davis is 8-1 with an FBS win. With two ranked games left against EWU and Sac State, the Aggies can get into the Top 5 seeds if they win out.
Portland State at Sacramento State
Why: Sac State is 7-2 overall, 7-1 against the FCS, and 6-0 in the Big Sky. The Hornets have one ranked win against Montana. They can be a seed if they win out. But Portland State is a dangerous team that shouldn’t be overlooked. The Vikings knocked Weber out of playoff contention last week. And at 5-4 overall (but only four D1 wins), are they in the bracket if they beat ranked Sac State and EWU these final two games?
NEXT: FCS Bracketology
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