Week 8 of the 2021 FCS season is here.
All year, Senior FCS Analyst Sam Herder will give his thoughts and score predictions on the week’s biggest games. This weekend features four ranked vs. ranked games and some potential playoff elimination games.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2021: 43-23
Spring 2021: 53-25
2019: 100-42
Week 8
Notable Games And How To Watch
No. 20 Northern Iowa at No. 6 South Dakota State
UNI has had some big wins in Brookings in recent memory. The Panthers beat SDSU 38-18 in 2017 when the Jacks are ranked No. 7. And they beat 7-seeded SDSU in the second round of the 2019 playoffs.
The Panthers need another huge victory Saturday. At 3-3 overall and games against ranked SIU and Mo State remaining, UNI is in playoff mode after last week’s 34-21 home loss to South Dakota.
SDSU had its wake-up call two weeks ago in home loss to SIU. The Jacks are still 5-1 with an FBS win and have scored 40 or more points in every game. I think they remind the FCS they are still one of the best teams in the country.
Prediction: SDSU 38-17
No. 7 James Madison at No. 23 Delaware
The Dukes have owned a lot of the FCS online chatter this week. And it has nothing to do with the 2021 squad. JMU looks to be on its way out of the FCS with interest from the Sun Belt and C-USA. How much of a distraction has that been for the players?
There’s no way the players can ignore it and aren’t curious what the future holds for them and what league they’ll be a part of in a couple of years. So there is some level of distraction, but I don’t think enough for Delaware to pull off the upset.
Losers of two straight and without starting QB Nolan Henderson, the Blue Hens won’t be able to muster much offensively against a solid JMU defense. Delaware has some good defensive players as well but allowed 34 points last week to Stony Brook. If JMU can finish drives with touchdowns and not field goals, the Dukes should roll.
Prediction: JMU 28-10
Jacksonville State at No. 1 Sam Houston
RELATED: SHSU’s Ramon Jefferson Enjoying His Return To The FCS
This is a key game for both teams. SHSU needs convincing wins to show the playoff committee it is deserving of a Top 2 seed. And JSU, who is 3-3 overall with a P5 win but 2-3 against the FCS, needs to start putting together a playoff-worthy resume.
The Gamecocks and Bearkats had two weeks to prepare. I trust SHSU’s coaches to put together a better game plan, be able to adjust in-game, and the players execute at a higher level.
SHSU plays very well at home, and the last time JSU played a ranked opponent on the road resulted in a 31-6 loss at then-No. 20 Kennesaw State in early October.
Prediction: SHSU 34-21
No. 17 Missouri State at No. 3 North Dakota State
NDSU’s defense is playing at a historic rate, allowing just 7.2 points per game. The Bison haven’t played a scoring offense that is currently in the Top 48 of the FCS. A good test comes this weekend, though, with Mo State’s No. 21 scoring offense, averaging 33.5 PPG.
The Bison cornerbacks haven’t been stressed too much yet against standout wide receivers, besides UNI’s Isaiah Weston, who had five catches for 181 yards and one TD. He probably would have had more if Theo Day was a bit more accurate that day.
Mo State’s offense can get rolling once it heats up with a strong downfield passing attack. The Bears throw for 281.5 yards per game behind the strong arm of Jason Shelley and his athletic group of WRs. If the Bears can hit on some big plays early and take the crowd out of it, this could turn into an interesting game. But I’m not ready to pick against the Bison just yet. The NDSU offense will have its chances for big plays as well.
Prediction: NDSU 38-24
No. 18 Rhode Island at No. 5 Villanova
This looked like it could have been the de facto CAA championship game until Rhody suffered a bizarre 28-7 loss last week at Towson. The Rams are now 5-1 overall and 3-1 in the CAA.
A week after beating JMU, Nova had a scare against winless UAlbany last Saturday in a 17-10 win. The Wildcats remain undefeated against the FCS, including a 3-0 mark in the CAA.
Rhody’s loss has cooled expectations for the team, especially since its one quality win was against a shorthanded Delaware team. The Rams are still likely a playoff team. But to me, the CAA is a two-horse conference with Nova and JMU a tier above everyone else.
Prediction: Villanova 31-17
Weber State at No. 2 Eastern Washington
RELATED: EWU’s Explosive Offense Face Upcoming Tests
EWU’s offense is playing at about as high of a level as you can, scoring 54.0 points per game. The scoring defenses the Eagles have faced haven’t been great, though. Yes, they did take on the No. 11 scoring defense Montana, but the Griz are 104th in passing defense.
Weber State has the third-best passing defense in the FCS, allowing 151.5 yards per game. The Wildcats are also playing with their backs against the wall. At 2-4, they need to win out to make the playoffs. If EWU wins out, it’s in line for a Top 2 playoff seed.
The Eagles have three straight tough opponents, hosting Montana State and going to UC Davis after playing Weber and having a bye next week. MSU and UC Davis are ranked in the Top 10. These games are where the Eagles prove they are the best team in the FCS.
The Wildcats have the defense to not get the score run up on them. Its offense just isn’t there to keep the game within striking distance. EWU will get its points, and shouldn’t have a problem holding Weber’s offense to under 24 points.
Prediction: EWU 35-21
Colgate at Holy Cross
This is a home game for Holy Cross in Worcester, but it will be played at Polar Park, home to the local Minor League Baseball team.
Colgate is 2-5 overall and 2-0 in the Patriot League standings. Those two wins are against the bottom teams in the conference, Georgetown and Lehigh. The Raiders can show they are a threat in the league with a win at the defending champs Holy Cross, who is 4-2 overall with an FBS win and is 1-0 in the standings. If we want to do a score comparison, which can be dangerous, Colgate beat Georgetown 28-21 and Holy Cross beat Georgetown 48-14.
Holy Cross has improved offensively compared to the spring. It starts with dual-threat QB Matthew Sluka, who has thrown for six TDs and rushed for six scores. Colgate’s offense is lacking explosiveness, averaging just 14 points per game, although the Raiders scored 30 and 28 points against its two Patriot League opponents.
Prediction: Holy Cross 28-10
Duquesne at Sacred Heart
Sacred Heart is the defending NEC champ. Duquense is showing it’s looking to take that crown with a 4-1 overall start and an FBS win. The Dukes are 2-0 in the standings, and Sacred Heart is 2-1.
Sacred Heart’s All-American RB Julius Chestnut has been out with an injury, but Malik Grant has stepped up big time, rushing for 853 yards and five TDs on 155 attempts. The 853 yards on the ground lead the FCS. The Pioneers aren’t putting many points up, though, averaging 16.3 PPG.
Duquesne is on a four-game winning streak and defends the run well, allowing 110.2 rushing yards a game. After a 39-34 scare against Bryant, and then a bye, I think the Dukes come out strong and stay unbeaten in the NEC.
Prediction: Duquesne 24-10
No. 14 ETSU at Furman
ETSU suffered its first loss last week at Chattanooga, moving to 6-1 overall with an FBS win and 3-1 in the SoCon. The Buccaneers are joined by VMI and Mercer at 3-1 in the standings. Furman and Chattanooga are 2-1 in SoCon play.
Just a week ago, ETSU was being talked about as a potential seed. Now, with back-to-back road games and Furman on a two-game winning streak, the Bucs aren’t even a playoff lock. This week will be a challenging game, and they still have games coming against VMI and Mercer. The SoCon is looking like a two-bid league, possibly three if other conferences really beat up on each other.
Furman’s lone SoCon loss was an ugly 24-3 result against Mercer. Mercer just had an ugly 45-7 loss to VMI. VMI’s lone loss is to rival The Citadel, 35-24. ETSU beat The Citadel 48-21 earlier this season and Furman beat The Citadel 24-14.
See what we’re doing here in the SoCon? By the season’s end, teams will have knocked each other off so much that there will probably be two playoff-worthy resumes. With a P5 win against Vanderbilt, ETSU is still in a good spot to make the bracket, whether it be as an auto-bid or at-large bid. Getting a win against Furman is key in that. ETSU’s offense steps up after a tough showing against UTC.
Prediction: ETSU 31-27
NEXT: FCS Bracketology
RELATED: HBCU Predictions
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