“Montana shouldn’t be getting No. 2 votes over SDSU.”
“If SDSU drops in some ballots with a 2-1 record featuring a close P5 loss, shouldn’t NDSU?”
“Montana State is overrated.”
“UIW has a better resume than all of these teams.”
“Missouri State should be in the Top 3 after nearly beating FBS No. 10 Arkansas.”
“Sac State should be higher than No. 7.”
“Sac State should be lower than No. 7.”
For how much polls “don’t matter,” they sure instigate feelings, even if it’s Week 4 of the tackle football season.
A lot of teams, honestly, have arguments to be ranked higher. For example, I could write “10 reasons Missouri State should be ranked higher than Montana State” easily. I could also write “10 reasons Montana State should be ranked higher than Missouri State” just as easily. When there aren’t a lot of games to go off of and opponent strengths are wildly different, it’s easy to pick out 10 reasons/statistics/data points on why X team should be higher than X team.
Thankfully, we’re going to get a lot of answers in Week 4. The top six teams in the Stats Perform Media Poll all face FCS teams that range from quality opponents to fantastic opponents.
RELATED: Week 4 Notable Games And How To Watch
No. 1 North Dakota State at South Dakota
NDSU hasn’t lost back-to-back games since 2009. A road trip to Vermillion isn’t the easiest after losing to P5 Arizona where the game didn’t end until around bar close Fargo time. USD is receiving votes, but this isn’t necessarily a game people are circling as upset potential. The Coyotes just don’t look as strong as some of us expected.
But it’s still the best FCS opponent NDSU will see to date. So if this is a tightly-contested game, maybe that raises more “vulnerable” flags that some are already trying to wave. The Bison’s front seven has some question marks, so if USD’s physical RB Travis Theis has a big day, it could expose more question marks overall for an NDSU squad that suffered a rare defeat.
A 42-7 NDSU win reminds us “Oh yeah, this team is still the king of the FCS despite looking gettable last week.”
No. 2t South Dakota State at No. 6 Missouri State
Some Missouri State fans wanted the Bears to ascend the polls to a Top 2 ranking after they nearly beat FBS No. 10 Arkansas. But let’s remember that performances against the FBS, bad or good, are not always indicative of FCS success. Last year, Mo State lost by a touchdown at Oklahoma State, who was No. 22 at the time. Oklahoma State finished 12-2 and No. 7 in the final AP poll, while Mo State lost to UT Martin in the first round. Beating a highly-ranked FCS opponent is a better gauge than nearly beating a ranked P5 team, so this is a chance for the Bears to rise into the Top 3.
SDSU, meanwhile, isn’t happy that Montana is taking some No. 2 votes away from them. The reason I moved UM to No. 2 is because I was higher on South Dakota than I was on UC Davis in Week 2. And Montana throttled USD while SDSU had a close battle with UC Davis. I don’t view USD as highly now, so a road win for SDSU gives the Jacks a good chance to get some No. 2 votes back.
Portland State at No. 2t Montana
This is a game Montana should win. Although let’s not forget PSU has come into Missoula before and gotten a win. If the Griz are truly a national title contender, a team that can legitimately win in Frisco, they should take care of PSU with relative ease and win by 3-4 scores. If the Griz are on par with their past teams that made runs to the 2019 and 2021 quarterfinals, this will be a 10-14-point win.
PSU is an above-average FCS team, going 4-4 last year in the Big Sky and returning most of its team besides starting a new QB. The Vikings have some really explosive playmakers on the outside. The talent is there, as evident by a close 21-17 loss to FBS San Jose State. PSU may be the fifth or sixth-best team in the Big Sky.
When it comes to legit, upper-echelon, tier 1 teams in the FCS, they beat “above-average” FCS teams in convincing fashion. A decisive win by Montana tells us this team is elite.
No. 4t Montana State at No. 15 Eastern Washington
Before we overreact to MSU’s 68-28 loss last week to Oregon State, a reminder that EWU lost 59-24 to Washington State in 2018 and still made a run to the national title game. We aren’t in a position yet to declare MSU overrated.
The MSU passing defense looked terrible against Oregon State. Is it really that bad, though? Well, we’ll find out when the Bobcats go to EWU and have to defend the likes of Freddie Roberson and Efton Chism III.
Last year, MSU beat then-No. 5 EWU on the red turf 23-20, limiting eventual Walter Payton Award winner Eric Barriere to 214 yards passing. Barriere is gone, and MSU returns solid experience from that secondary. If the Bobcats go to No. 15 EWU and get a win, it makes us forget about the blowout loss to Oregon State.
No. 4t UIW at Southeastern Louisiana University
Southeastern is just outside the Top 25 with the 27th-most voting points. This is a big opportunity for UIW to get a quality win (depending on how Southeastern finishes), because the resume-boosting wins will be done after this week.
At 3-0 with victories against then-No. 9 SIU (64-29), FBS Nevada (55-41), and Prairie View A&M (31-14), the Cardinals are looking fantastic. A win at Southeastern puts an 11-0 season in clear sight. UIW then has remaining games vs. McNeese, vs. Lamar, @ Nicholls, vs. non-counter Faulkner, at Texas A&M Commerce, vs. Houston Christian, and @ Northwestern State.
That’s a whole lot of meh opponents.
The Cardinals will really be hoping for SIU (who began 0-2 against FCS opponents before beating the Big Ten’s Northwestern) and SLU (who is 1-2 with two FBS losses) to finish with strong playoff resumes. Or else an 11-0 UIW team won’t have the strength of schedule to warrant getting a high seed if neither SIU nor SLU are playoff-worthy teams in November. A convincing win against a Lions team this week, who we’ve seen in the playoffs lately, will be another statement of how good this team is. UIW needs big wins against its strongest opponents for the sake of playoff positioning.
Honorable Mention: No. 7 Sacramento State at Colorado State
This is an honorable mention because Sac State is right behind these top six teams and its game at Colorado State is a good measuring stick, but as I wrote above, “performances against the FBS, bad or good, are not always indicative of FCS success.”
Quite frankly, if Sac State is a team good enough to make a run to the quarterfinals and/or beyond, the Hornets should get an FBS win here. Colorado State is not good. The Rams lost 42-23 last year to South Dakota State. And things aren’t looking much better this season under new head coach Jay Norvell. Colorado State is 0-3, losing 51-7 at Michigan, 34-19 vs. Middle Tennessee, and 38-7 at Washington State.
If Sac State loses, the Hornets probably aren’t going to get punished a whole lot in the polls. But it would tell us they are not among the FCS top tier. However, if this makes sense, a win also doesn’t necessarily stamp the Hornets as a top-tier team, because several FCS teams are good enough to beat Colorado State. If anything, it would just be an affirmation that the Hornets belong somewhere in the Top 10.
It would also be a quality win for a program that’s been accused by others of coasting to a seed through a soft schedule. An FBS win always looks good to playoff committee members, who may have developed distrust for Sac State after some disappointing playoff performances.
