I appreciate the tremendous outreach over the last few weeks as the news cycle has evolved. I try to respond to every DM, email, text, and tweet, but a few questions keep running the same route (see what I did there?). Below are some of those, along with added context and perspective.
As we close out 2025, thank you for taking the time to spend with HERO Sports and for engaging with my work. Wishing all of you a happy new year and a successful 2026.
Q: I have seen a lot of North Dakota State to the FBS. Where are they going? Or is it false?
A: I have gotten this question in a lot of different forms via DMs, texts, and phone calls over the last few weeks. Somewhere along the way, this topic has picked up real momentum again.
Do I believe North Dakota State could compete at the FBS level?
Yes.
There is no question they have an elite football program, a strong culture and a donor base that could hold up philanthropically. From a football standpoint, they would not look out of place.
Do I believe a move is actively coming together right now?
No.
My overall pulse, after talking with multiple people, is largely unchanged from several months ago. One side of campus is fully engaged and exploring the idea, while the other side is not there yet. The keywords are ‘yet’ and ‘no’; I am not going to specify which side is which.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d LOVE to see the Bison at the FBS level for many reasons. I’d also love them as a travel partner for Northern Illinois in the Mountain West. They compete like an FBS program more than the majority of the FBS right now.
I am working on a full financial breakdown that will run next week to show how the numbers actually compare to potential FBS landing spot(s). I will give a small preview here. If this were to happen, a football-only move makes the most sense financially.
One additional data point worth noting comes from North Dakota State’s official NCAA Membership Financial Report System (MFRS) filing. In 2024, NDSU reported total athletic revenues of $29,948,436. For context, the lowest reported revenue in the Mountain West that year was San José State at $44,239,752.
That gap matters, and it remains one of the biggest hurdles in this conversation. Thus, I think a football-only move makes the most sense if it happens. More on that next week.
Q: What do you make of St. Mary’s now that the UC San Diego numbers are out, and did they really get $10 million?
A: Yes, it was $10 million, and $4 million of that was due within the first 10 days of the contract being executed.
UC San Diego had 10 million reasons to make the move. I may walk back a comment I made back in September, when the deal was announced, saying I did not think UCSD would make this move without knowing St. Mary’s was fully committed* to the WCC long term.
After seeing the numbers, I am not sure UCSD actually cared. With that level of upfront financial security, the move does not tie them down long-term. In theory, they could still leave in the mid-2030s, pay an exit fee to move elsewhere, and still come out well ahead financially. I am not insinuating anything specific, but the flexibility matters.
Now for the asterisk.
This is purely a gut feeling. There is no document and no loud whispers to point to. That said, I have a hard time believing that a program with the leverage St. Mary’s has in men’s basketball simply sat back and signed off on a $10 million deal for a school that was competing in Division II roughly five years ago without getting something in return.
My belief is that St. Mary’s received a favorable arrangement in the process to stay put. That makes even more sense when you consider the broader context. St. Mary’s is a small private institution, enrollment has declined (almost half their enrollment) as it has at many schools over the past decade, and tuition dependency is magnified in one of the most expensive regions in the country.
As for UC San Diego, regardless of conference affiliation, they are in a very strong position. The infrastructure is in place, particularly in basketball, and I would not be surprised to see them competing for championships year after year across multiple sports in the WCC.
Q: What do you foresee as the main storylines of 2026?
A: Loaded question, but a really good one.
A year from now, the industry will look very different. Private equity and private capital are about to accelerate quickly across college athletics (they’ve been around for years!). Utah effectively opened the floodgates. I cannot count on two hands the number of schools that got close to the finish line with private capital over the last year, but could not quite get deals done because no one had gone first yet. Even now, I still think there is a scenario where this gets disrupted late, possibly through a state or political entity stepping in. But the gates are open!
The coaching carousel will also remain a major storyline, but it will look different. I expect men’s basketball to stay active, though not at the level of college football. Looking ahead to 2026, I do not think the football carousel will be as chaotic as this past cycle. Last year feels more like an outlier than a new normal. Big names will still surface, but there will be fewer of them. There is only so much money available once you factor in buyouts and opportunity costs at each school. The trend is toward smarter contracts, more incentive-heavy structures, and a willingness to hire the right coach at the right price rather than the biggest brand name.
Another major storyline is revenue generation, particularly around jersey patch sponsorships. I expect the NCAA to formally approve jersey patch sponsorships in 2026, effectively opening the door to corporate sponsors on game uniforms. With the House settlement and revenue sharing adding entirely new expense categories for athletic departments, almost every asset will be up for grabs.
I have done a straw poll with Group of Five (and six) and FCS schools on what they would be looking for in a jersey patch deal. I will share the full results later this spring after receiving permission from participating schools, but early indications suggest annual asks in the range of $100,000 to $250,000 for FCS programs and $250,000 to $500,000 for Group of Five and Six schools.
I also think the promotion and relegation conversation continues to gain traction. I do not yet know exactly what that model looks like, but it creates a connective tissue across the sport. It offers a pathway in which a program like North Dakota State is, in some form, tied to schools like Iowa, Nebraska, or Colorado State. That type of structure introduces stability, ambition, and long-term growth.
Finally, I expect growing momentum for a non-Power Four playoff. With the recent FCS playoff discussions and private capital interest this year, that model could become a testing ground. In many ways, it serves as a potential bridge toward both a Group of Five or Six playoff and a broader promotion-style framework between FBS and FCS programs.
Thanks again for the support throughout 2025. The tweets, DMs, and emails genuinely make me smile. I love this industry and enjoy sharing perspective and insight with all of you. Don’t be a stranger in 2026!
