Montana’s football schedule this year has eight Big Sky Conference games, two FCS non-conference matchups, and one non-D1 opponent.
Here are game-by-game predictions for the Grizzlies, who are ranked No. 16 in HERO Sports’ FCS Preseason Top 25.
RELATED: Montana Football Preview
vs Butler
Montana will overwhelm non-scholarship Butler to kick off the season.
Win
at Utah Tech
Utah Tech is relatively new to the FCS and was picked to finish seventh in the United Athletic Conference preseason poll.
Win
vs Ferris State
A lose-lose-lose situation for Montana.
If the Griz dominate Ferris State, it’d be a relatively impressive showing over the two-time D2 national champs, but it would have zero value on Montana’s playoff resume. If the Griz win by 10-14 points, some will question the smaller margin of victory. “A true Top 10 FCS team shouldn’t only beat the best D2 team by two possessions.” It’d be like if Georgia played South Dakota State and won by 10 points, CFB analysts would question that margin of victory. And if Montana loses, the psyche of the team and its fan base will be damaged.
Montana should win. How the Griz win will probably be over-analyzed. But big-picture, scheduling this game puts pressure on them to win at least eight total games to hit seven D1 wins for playoff positioning. That means having to go at least 5-3 in the Big Sky as the Griz will run through their non-conference. Last regular season, they finished 4-4 in the league standings (7-4 overall, 7 D1 wins).
Win
at Northern Arizona
NAU has brought in the second-most D1 transfers among FCS schools, landing 28 total transfers (18 from the FBS). How all that gels … we’ll see. A decent road test for Montana, but the Griz will be favored.
Win
For more FCS coverage, follow us on Facebook and Twitter.
vs Idaho State
The top half of the Big Sky looks to have a big separation from the bottom half. And Idaho State was picked to finish last in both the coaches and media preseason poll.
Win
at No. 18 UC Davis
At 5-0, Montana has likely crept up in the national polls, possibly into the Top 10. But we still don’t fully know how good the Griz are. They get their first true gauge against a solid UC Davis squad, who was picked by the coaches to finish second in the conference.
The Aggies went 5-3 in Big Sky play last year, and they return First Team All-Big Sky QB Miles Hastings, its leading WR and six of the top nine, two All-Conference OL, and seven of their top 11 tacklers. I think UC Davis finds a way to counter Montana’s blitzing defense with guys like RB Lan Larison and QB/AP Trent Tompkins popping explosive plays.
Loss
at No. 5 Idaho
Back-to-back road trips, on ESPN2, in front of a rowdy Idaho Homecoming crowd, and defending an elite passing attack with question marks at cornerback … Montana drops its second game in a row.
Loss
vs Northern Colorado
A good get-right game for Montana against a UNC squad picked to finish 10th in the league standings.
Win
vs No. 10 Sacramento State
Sac State runs into a buzzsaw here.
Montana has a top-notch home environment. And the Griz players/coaches/fans will be out for revenge.
Last year’s Sac State 31-24 overtime win over Montana saw a controversial call late in the game in the Hornets’ favor. It also saw an earlier targeting penalty inflicted on Griz QB Lucas Johnson, which knocked him out of the game and the next week’s game at No. 5 Weber State, a 24-21 loss. If that helmet-to-helmet hit didn’t happen, you could argue that Montana beats Sac State and Weber.
Sac State returns way more impact players than it loses, contrary to the offseason narrative surrounding the program. The losses are star-power names, though. I think the Hornets will be good this fall, but winning at Montana is going to be a challenge.
Win
at Portland State
Coming off of an emotional win and before an emotional game, Montana has a slow start at PSU before pulling away in the second half.
Win
vs No. 3 Montana State
The Griz did take it to Montana State the last time the Brawl of the Wild was in Missoula two years ago, but the Bobcats have won five of the last six. Montana State football is currently on a run as an FCS power that Montana wants to return to.
MSU’s rushing attack and o-line that dominated Montana last year is intact. The Bobcats are fully expected to be even better than last year’s semifinal squad, while it’s uncertain if Montana will be on par with or better than its 2022 team after multiple All-American names on defense graduated.
Played in Missoula tips the scales some, but the Bobcats have the edge on paper. MSU will be battle-tested on the road, and a win here could secure a Top 4 seed or even a Top 2 seed for the Cats.
Montana, at seven D1 wins and a ranked victory over Sac State, makes the playoffs.
Loss
Regular-Season Record Prediction: 8-3
