Someone will punch their ticket to the FCS semifinals when North Dakota State takes on #3 seed South Dakota.
The Missouri Valley Football Conference foes square off for the second time this season. USD shocked the FCS with its 24-19 September win in Fargo.
Saturday’s kickoff is set for 1:30 p.m. CT on ABC.
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NDSU’s Offense vs. South Dakota’s Defense
The Bison offense, while having somewhat of a different look stylistically, has operated at a high level for most of this season. They are the No. 3-graded offense on PFF.
At times, its passing game has done more damage than its power-rushing attack. NDSU owns the No. 1 passing grade on PFF, while its rushing grade is No. 7. The Bison are still No. 4 statistically in FCS rushing offense, averaging 244.5 yards per game. The quarterbacks led the way on the ground for chunks of this season, but TaMerik Williams has gotten going recently. Williams leads the team with 657 yards on the ground. Cam Miller has a team-high 12 rushing TDs with 640 yards. Backup QB Cole Payton is utilized as well, and he’s No. 3 on the team with 508 rushing yards and 10 scores.
Miller has been sharp throwing the ball. Graded as PFF’s top FCS quarterback, he’s thrown for 2,321 yards, 17 TDs, and four interceptions. Miller is coming off of his worst game at Montana State, though, going 5/13 for 66 yards.
Six-foot-7 WR Zach Mathis has been ol’ reliable, totaling 44 catches for 629 yards and six TDs. Eli Green has really come on as a playmaker, adding 25 receptions for 663 yards and two scores.
NDSU’s o-line is 16th in the FCS with 1.23 sacks allowed per game.
They’ll go up against a USD squad that ranks No. 5 in FCS scoring defense, allowing 15.4 points per game.
USD doesn’t jump off the page when it comes to yards given up, allowing 137.2 rushing YPG (No. 46 in the FCS) and 178.4 passing YPG (No. 15). But the Coyotes buckle down when it comes to keeping teams out of the end zone. They don’t get caught out of position often and are fundamentally sound in their tackling, graded as the No. 3 tackling unit.
LB Brock Mogensen, the MVFC Defensive Player of the Year, has a team-high 109 tackles. Myles Harden is a pro prospect at his cornerback position. He has 51 tackles, one interception, and six pass breakups. Nick Gaes, who did not play against NDSU earlier this year, is a key player on the interior of the DL. He has 10 TFLs and six sacks.
USD’s defense has shined in the last four games, holding No. 10 SIU, No. 10 UND, and Western Illinois to 10 points or less. Last week, the Yotes held an explosive Sac State offense to 24 points, although the Hornets scored twice in the fourth to make it 34-24 and a closer game on paper.
South Dakota’s Offense vs. NDSU’s Defense
After scoring 17, 3, 14, and 14 points late in the regular season, the Yotes have scored 48 and 34 points in their last two games.
USD averages 24.6 points per game (No. 69 in the FCS), including 152.2 rushing YPG (No. 57) and 198.4 passing YPG (No. 69). Nothing eye-popping. But the Yotes spread the wealth.
Aidan Bouman is completing 67% of his passes for 2,352 yards, 14 TDs, and four interceptions. He is PFF’s No. 9-graded FCS quarterback. Carter Bell leads the team with 47 catches for 829 yards and five scores. And JJ Galbreath has emerged as a top tight end in the FCS, hauling in 36 catches for 579 yards and five TDs.
Bouman can manipulate the pocket and move around, but he’s not too mobile at 6-foot-5. The Bison have generated much more pressure off the edge recently, led by Jake Kava’s seven sacks and Dylan Hendricks’ 6.5. USD’s pass-blocking grade is the 10th best in the FCS.
USD has a loaded running back stable, led by Travis Theis’ 808 yards and six TDs on the ground. Charles Pierre Jr. has added 443 yards and four TDs, including 123 last week. Nate Thomas is also dangerous, totaling 392 rushing yards and five scores.
NDSU has been more gettable on the ground compared to past years, graded as the No. 39 rush defense on PFF. The Bison allow 121.0 rushing YPG, which ranks No. 24 statistically. NDSU’s coverage grade is 41st, but again ranks in the Top 25 statistically with 183.1 passing yards allowed a game (No. 22).
NDSU gives up 19.3 points per game, ranking No. 16 in the FCS. Tackling has been the main issue for the Bison, grading out as the No. 93 tackling unit on PFF.
Talent remains on all three levels, though. Kava and Hendricks are playing well, while Eli Mostaert is a force on the interior of the d-line. Logan Kopp is a standout linebacker totaling 73 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks, and three interceptions. Cole Wisniewski is a top safety in all of college football, leading NDSU with 78 tackles and six interceptions.
Special Teams
NDSU’s Griffin Crosa is 15/18 on field goals this fall with a long of 44. Kaedin Steindorf is averaging 44.5 yards per punt, including 20 downed inside the 20-yard line. Jayden Price has returned 14 punts for 144 yards and a TD. Eli Green and RaJa Nelson have combined for 17 kick returns for 388 yards.
USD’s Will Leyland is 12/12 on field goals, featuring a long of 50 yards. Tyler Ebel averages 42.1 yards a punt, including 16 downed inside the 20-yard line. Carter Bell has seven punt returns for 60 yards. Keyondray Jones has returned 12 kicks for 202 yards.
