A rematch of all rematches. After winning 31-28 at Montana in late November, No. 2 seed Montana State now hosts No. 3 seed Montana in the FCS semifinals. The winner will face either Illinois State or No. 12 Villanova in Nashville for the FCS championship.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 137-50
2024 Record: 126-40
Montana State vs. Montana On TV
The matchup between Montana State and Montana airs nationally on ABC.
Kickoff is 3 p.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 20. It takes place at Bobcat Stadium in Bozeman, Montana.
Montana State vs. Montana Preview
The most passionate rivalry in FCS. First-ever FCS playoff meeting. Network TV. And a national championship berth on the line.
This is as good as it gets in the FCS playoffs. The celebration will be legendary for the winner. And the pain will be immense for the loser.
Montana State went to Montana and won 31-28 in the Brawl of the Wild a month ago. It was the first time since 2018 that a road team won. Another streak is still currently alive, and that’s 2015 being the last time Montana won in Bozeman.
Does home-field advantage come into effect again? The last time a road team won in the FCS semifinals was 2016.
The Brawl 1.0 was a fabulous back-and-forth last month. Montana could say if not for two uncharacteristic mistakes — a pick-6 after a ball was deflected and a blocked field goal — the Grizzlies would have won that game. Montana State can counter and say it made those key plays to win the game and that it arguably could have won by 10 points instead of three. The Bobcats sealed the game with a 14-play, 72-yard drive that took up the final 6:53, and the only thing preventing them from scoring after getting into the red zone was the ability to kneel out the clock.
Since that game, Montana has looked like the sharper team in the playoffs.
The Griz defeated South Dakota State 50-29 and South Dakota 52-22. Keali’i Ah Yat has gone from star to superstar, throwing 360 yards with four touchdowns and 305 yards with three scores in the playoffs. After a quiet game against the Cats, wide receiver Michael Wortham has caught 19 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the two postseason games, plus 65 yards and a score on the ground.
Add in All-American running back Eli Gillman (1,434 yards, 20 TDs this season), Freshman All-American wide receiver Brooks Davis (680 yards, 5 TDs), and reliable pass-catchers Blake Bohannon and Drew Deck (both over 400 receiving yards), and Montana’s offense can come at opponents in waves.
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Montana State had a choppy 21-13 win over Yale in the second round. The Cats looked much more impressive last week in a 44-28 win over SFA. But they allowed the Lumberjacks back into it after a 24-0 lead, allowing 20 second-half points. MSU was also flagged with 12 penalties for 100 yards.
The Cats aim to replicate the crisp offensive operation they displayed for most of the regular season.
Justin Lamson being efficient is key for MSU to strike its offensive balance. He is completing 72.3% of his passes for 2,683 yards, 22 touchdowns, and three interceptions, along with 661 yards and 12 scores on the ground. He was excellent in Missoula, showing off his gamer mentality. MSU’s ground game has continued to roll this season behind the duo of Julius Davis (1,044 yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (916 yards, 13 TDs). The run game, combined with a quick-hitting passing game, keeps a defense unbalanced. Taco Dowler leads the pass-catchers with 789 yards and five touchdowns.
Montana’s defense, an area of concern at different points in the regular season, looks much improved in the playoffs, especially against the run. The Griz allowed 61 rushing yards on 24 carries (2.5 YPC) against SDSU, and 122 rushing yards on 31 carries (3.9 YPC) against USD. The return of standout cornerback Kyon Loud has been crucial in that improvement, allowing Montana to do more against the run while trusting their corners to man up on the outside. Another key factor is linebacker Solomon Tuliaupupu elevating his play. The USC transfer has been a disruptor in the playoffs, including three TFLs against SDSU.
Montana needs to dig down and control the MSU ground game, something it wasn’t able to do in the Brawl. The Griz can then send more pressure against the pass, and when/if Lamson gets the ball off quickly, the Griz will need to tackle well in space.
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MSU’s defense also has quite the task on its hands.
For how much A-list star power Montana has offensively, the offensive line is probably at a B-level. Good enough, but not great. MSU’s d-line is its strength, and it’s going to need a big game to bottle up Gillman. If the Cats can slow down the run, it forces Ah Yat to win the game with his arm. He’s more than capable of doing that, but his mobility is restricted due to a knee injury. Pressure by Kenneth Eiden IV (14 TFLs, 8.5 sacks, 7 QBH), Zac Crews (7.5 TFLs, 5 sacks, 4 QBH), and Hunter Parsons (9.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 6 QBH) will be crucial. Crowd noise also helps a d-line get off the ball quicker.
Paul Brott (20 tackles, 3 TFLs, 3 QBH) is a key cog on the interior defensive line. He’s been grinding through an ankle injury, and his health/production is massive for this defense. Caden Dowler (90 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, and six interceptions) will need to continue being a playmaker against the run and defending the pass.
Special teams will also play a role — return game, punt protection, staying disciplined in coverage lanes, field goal operation, etc. MSU’s Taco Dowler and Montana’s Drew Deck can flip a field in a hurry on punt return.
The intensity in the stands and on the field, the physicality and thumping going on between whistles, and the level of talent on display are going to make for a glorious game.
It reminds me a bit of last year’s SDSU at NDSU semifinal game. The Bison narrowly beat the Jackrabbits in the regular season. But in the second round and quarterfinals, SDSU looked like a better team than NDSU in how it was playing. It’s a similar storyline heading into Saturday’s rivalry game. The slight difference is that NDSU won at home in the regular season, compared to MSU winning on the road. The Bison ended up narrowly beating SDSU in the semifinals, even though the two playoff games suggested the Jacks carried in better momentum.
A lot has happened outside of the norm in this year’s FCS playoff field. Typical powers have lost early. New blood is deep in the bracket. And plenty of road teams have won. But that’s on the other side of the bracket. I think the norm continues on this side. That norm is the team who’s better in the trenches wins deep in the playoffs, and home-field advantage is a difference-maker.
Prediction: Montana State 35-28
