Two historic playoff runs collide, and one memorable season has to end. No. 12 seed Villanova hosts unseeded Illinois State in the FCS semifinals. The winner will face either No. 2 Montana State or No. 3 Montana in Nashville for the FCS championship.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 137-50
2024 Record: 126-40
Villanova vs. Illinois State On TV
The matchup between Villanova and Illinois State airs nationally on ESPN2.
Kickoff is at 6:30 p.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 20. It takes place at Villanova Stadium in Villanova, Pennsylvania.
Villanova vs. Illinois State Preview
Road warriors. A team of destiny. Defying the odds. Everyone has doubted us.
Which team am I talking about?
The answer: Both.
Villanova and Illinois State are in the same boat as far as their unexpected runs to the semifinals. Now they collide in an unfamiliar matchup, yet it’s between two schools with the same style — nothing flashy, physical in the trenches, and gritty in their ability to win different styles of games.
Nova is riding an 11-game winning streak. The Wildcats shellacked Harvard 52-7 in the first round. They then hit the road, beating No. 5 seed Lehigh 14-7, handing the Mountain Hawks their first and only loss of the season. Nova went to No. 4 seed Tarleton State in the quarterfinals, a team viewed as the favorites to reach the national title game on this side of the bracket after North Dakota State lost. The Wildcats defeated Tarleton 26-21. Late-game defensive stands resulted in gutsy road wins for Nova.
After a head-scratching 37-7 home loss to Southern Illinois in the regular-season finale, Illinois State was one of the last four teams selected into the playoffs at 8-4. As an unseeded team, the Redbirds have won three straight road games in the bracket. They beat No. 16 seed Southeastern Louisiana 21-3, then shocked the nation with a 29-28 win at No. 1 NDSU, and followed that up with a 42-31 win at No. 8 seed UC Davis. ISU has gone south, north, west, and now goes east.
RELATED: FCS National Championship Odds
This is going to be a classic black-and-blue tackle football game.
And that’s what wins games deep in the FCS playoffs. Both teams want to get after the opposition in the trenches and establish the run/stop the run. But both squads also have strong quarterback play and dangerous weapons on the outside.
Villanova has shown off impressive depth at running back. David Avit entered this season among the best returning backs in the FCS. He rushed for 683 yards and eight touchdowns this year before an injury sidelined him in early November. There is a chance Avit returns this week. Ja’briel Mace has emerged as the top back with Avit sidelined, rushing for 887 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Isaiah Ragland is a productive back as well, totaling 721 yards and two TDs on the ground.
Illinois State deploys the RB duo of Victor Dawson (1,096 yards, 4 TDs) and Wenkers Wright (591 yards, 5 TDs). Wright hasn’t played since the first round, but Dawson has stepped up in the last two playoff games, rushing for 137 and 148 yards.
Villanova allows 127.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks No. 23 in the FCS. Linebacker Shane Hartzell is a multi-year standout and has tallied 94 tackles, 17.5 TFLs, and 8.5 sacks this fall. Christian Sapp adds 63 tackles, while Omari Bursey and Richie Kimmel have combined for 16.5 TFLs.
ISU allows 134.6 rushing yards per game (No. 36 in the subdivision). Tye Niekamp is a beast at linebacker, racking up 150 tackles, 13.5 TFLs, two sacks, one interception, and six pass breakups. Lashavion Brown adds 87 stops. ISU has a physical and active defensive line, led by Garret Steffen (54 tackles, 10 TFLs, 6.5 sacks) and Jake Anderson (50 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 3 sacks).
Check out the latest episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast.
You can also find the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, and Spreaker.
SUBSCRIBE: FCS Football Talk
Controlling the trenches will be key.
But this game may be won by the quarterback who delivers the biggest throws in the biggest moments.
The running backs will get theirs on both sides. They’re too good not to. But neither rushing attack will run wild. Both fronts are too good to get rolled on the ground.
Villanova’s Pat McQuaide is playing the best ball of his career after transferring from Nicholls, completing 60.4% of his passes for 2,924 yards, 24 TDs, and three interceptions. The Wildcats struck gold with another FCS transfer. Luke Colella, arriving from Princeton, has 73 catches for 1,013 yards and eight scores.
ISU’s Tommy Rittenhouse is completing 65.5% of his throws for 3,006 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Daniel Sobkowicz is among the best receivers in the FCS, tallying 71 catches for 992 yards and 16 touchdowns. The 6-foot-3 target has grabbed five touchdown catches in the last two games.
ISU’s offensive line has protected well, allowing 1.27 sacks per game (No. 20 in the FCS) and owning PFF’s No. 2 pass-blocking grade. If Nova can’t generate pressure, Rittenhouse and Sobkowicz will feast. The Wildcats own the No. 11 PFF pass-rush grade.
Both secondaries have been gettable at times this year. ISU allows 246.2 passing yards per game, which is No. 103 in the subdivision. Villanova allows 202.0 (No. 39).
I haven’t settled on a pick until this very typing.
So …
I’ll side with Villanova. I think the Wildcats are a slightly more complete team and have played with better consistency down the stretch. Illinois State overcame the travel fatigue narrative last week. As the Redbirds hit their fourth straight road playoff game, going south to north, and now west coast to east coast, maybe this is the week the home team has just a little more juice to finish the game on top. Especially when Villanova plays a grind-it-out style compared to Davis, who lacked the physicality.
Villanova is 7-0 at home in 2025. And the last time a home team lost in the FCS semifinals was 2016. But … ISU is 8-0 on the road vs. FCS opponents this year.
I predicted both of these teams to win in the first round when many others were picking their opponents. However, I picked against both in the second round and quarterfinals. I’ll either predict correctly after a two-week skid. Or I’ll wrongly pick against a team for the third straight game. (And it’d be a fourth straight game in Nashville.)
Prediction: Villanova 28-24
