Week 11 of the 2025 FCS season is here, and it features five ranked matchups.
After an 8-3 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.
New Customer Offers at BetMGM
Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l Terms
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 89-29
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Week 11 Predictions
No. 1/1 North Dakota State at No. 13/15 North Dakota Prediction
UND had it rolling with five straight wins, including mostly dominating ranked opponents Youngstown State and Southern Illinois. But the Fighting Hawks suffered a setback last week, losing 26-21 at South Dakota. Now at 6-3 (6-2 vs. the FCS) and games remaining vs. NDSU, at Murray State, and vs. SDSU, the pressure has risen to at least split its ranked matchups vs. the xDSUs to feel comfortable getting into the playoffs at 8-4. Finish 7-5, and the Hawks are nervously on the bubble, but have a great strength of schedule and some ranked wins for a good argument to get in.
NDSU, meanwhile, has a bit more wiggle room to earn a Top 2 playoff seed after UND and Tarleton State lost last week. The Bison are 9-0 with five currently-ranked wins. If they were to lose Saturday and then win out (vs. Northern Iowa and St. Thomas), it’s hard to find two teams to seed above an 11-1 NDSU team, a similar scenario as last year when the Bison lost at USD in the regular-season finale and still received the No. 2 seed a day later.
So we may see UND with a higher sense of urgency on Saturday. Add in the homefield advantage — NDSU is 1-1 in its last two games at the Alerus Center with bad performances + UND has been a different beast in Grand Forks — and this has upset potential.
But after playing arguably its worst game of the season last week, albeit still beating a ranked Youngstown State team, I expect a sharp NDSU performance. Cole Payton and Co. have been machine-like offensively. And the defense will have a rebound game, doing enough to slow down a good UND offense led by QB Jerry Kaminski and RB Sawyer Seidl.
Prediction: NDSU 31-24
No. 12/10 Mercer at No. 24/24 Western Carolina Prediction
Both teams are on heaters.
And quarterback is a big reason why.
After suffering a tough loss to Presbyterian, Mercer inserted true freshman QB Braden Atkinson. The Bears have since won seven straight to sit at 7-1. Atkinson is a top favorite for the Jerry Rice Award, throwing for 2,474 yards, 25 touchdowns, and four interceptions. His last two games have seen 533 and 426 passing yards.
WCU started 0-3 while QB Taron Dickens sat out. Since his return, the Catamounts are 6-3. Dickens, just a redshirt sophomore, has thrown for 2,201 yards, 26 TDs, and one interception.
Both teams have a pathway to eight wins, which could get the SoCon a second bid into the playoffs. They’ll have to avoid upset losses, which is something that has bitten the conference when it comes to postseason positioning in past seasons. After this week, WCU (6-3) has remaining games vs. ETSU and at VMI. Mercer (7-1) hosts Chattanooga before going to Auburn.
Mercer appears to be a more complete team with a better defense (allowing 16.6 points per game to WCU’s 32.8). And defense travels well into hostile territory, getting key stops down the stretch for a win.
Prediction: Mercer 42-35
Check out the latest episode of the FCS Football Talk podcast.
You can also find the podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, iHeart, and Spreaker.
SUBSCRIBE: FCS Football Talk
No. 8/9 South Dakota State at No. 22/25 South Dakota Prediction
A few weeks ago, it seemed this game would be a blowout win for the road team.
SDSU, despite some choppy offensive play, was 7-0. USD, meanwhile, was barely beating struggling teams like Indiana State and Northern Iowa. But things can change quickly in football.
The Jackrabbits have been without standout quarterback Chase Mason, and several more key injuries have mounted. They got blown out by NDSU two weeks ago. And last week, SDSU suffered an inexplicable loss at home to Indiana State. That same day, USD defeated No. 8/10 North Dakota. The momentum is going two different ways.
Both teams are in a spot where they need to win this game, for both playoff positioning and momentum.
The Yotes are 6-4 (6-3 vs. the FCS) with one game remaining after hosting SDSU. They go to ranked Southern Illinois before taking a bye in the final week of the regular season. If USD splits these next two games, there is a chance it gets into the playoff bracket at 7-5 due to a couple of ranked wins late in the season. But there will be plenty of 7 and 8-win teams on the bubble. The Yotes want to avoid suffering their fifth loss.
SDSU is 7-2 with two straight losses without Mason, and, frankly, two straight ugly performances. Three ranked games remain — at USD, vs. Illinois State, and at UND. Mason is nearing a return from his foot/lower-leg injury, but he’s still questionable. That also leaves a questionable outlook for the rest of SDSU’s season. This is still a team that went to Bozeman and won. If Mason is back, the Jacks could go 3-0. This is also a beat-up squad that is down several key players. The Jacks could go 0-3.
There are plenty of concerns for SDSU outside of Mason’s health (run game, allowing explosive plays on defense, special teams gaffes). But his return, whenever that is, will give the team a shot in the arm. We have no idea if he’ll be back this week, though. Heck, even the backup QBs are banged up. And without Mason, it’s hard to see SDSU finding much success against a strong USD defense. The Jacks have also fielded a strong defense for most of this season. They should be able to hold down Aidan Bouman, L.J. Phillips Jr., and a USD offense that hasn’t gotten going much this fall.
Expect a low-scoring game. But the SDSU offense is too much of an unknown right now to get a road win.
Prediction: USD 21-17
No. 19/14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 20/18 Lamar Prediction
The Southland is going to have a fascinating and entertaining race down the stretch.
SFA and Southeastern are both 7-2 overall and 5-0 in league play. Southeastern is undefeated vs. FCS opponents. Lamar is 7-2 overall and 4-1 in the conference standings, suffering its first Southland loss last week at UIW. SFA hosts Lamar next week, but does not play Southeastern.
The Southland looks like a two-bid league this year. But how about a three-bid league? It’s possible, depending on the results.
I was one of the first voters to put Southeastern on my ballot weeks ago. But I’m waiting to see how this week’s result goes before boosting the Lions up more. They are 7-0 vs. the FCS and have dominated, winning recent games 38-0, 49-0, 38-14, and 59-14. Beating a ranked Lamar team would be its biggest win of the season.
I haven’t been overly impressed with Lamar, though. The Cardinals were winning, but were scraping by inferior opponents.
Southeastern just looks to pack a bigger punch than Lamar. Carson Camp has found a nice landing spot after stints at South Dakota and Sac State. Camp has thrown for 1,313 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Kaleb Proctor is a problem on the d-line. He has 9.5 TFLs and seven sacks.
The Lions remain undefeated vs. the FCS.
Prediction: Southeastern 31-17
RELATED: FCS Bracketology
No. 15/16 Southern Illinois at No. 21/22 Youngstown State Prediction
It’s going to be a competitive race for playoff spots in the MVFC.
NDSU is a lock. But everyone else is still up in the air based on records and remaining games. UND, USD, SDSU, Illinois State, SIU, and YSU all could end up in the 7-to-8-win range.
SIU (6-3) was once ranked in the Top 10 earlier this year. But the Salukis got blown out by NDSU and UND in back-to-back weeks. They are still looking for that needle-moving victory. And beating UNI 31-17 and Murray State 27-7 doesn’t move the needle. Three ranked opponents remain — at YSU, vs. USD, and at Illinois State. Playing a non-D1 opponent could be a factor for SIU if it is on the playoff bubble.
After consecutive losses to SDSU and UND, YSU has been impressing. The Penguins won 40-35 at ranked Illinois State, beat Murray State 51-17, and then gave NDSU its closest game of the year before losing 38-30 in Fargo. At 5-4, YSU plays Indiana State and UNI in the final two weeks. If the Penguins can win this week, you like their chances to hit eight victories.
It should be an entertaining game featuring two terrific quarterbacks. SIU’s DJ Williams has thrown for 2,023 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions while rushing for a team-high 569 yards and 13 TDs. YSU’s Beau Brungard has been a menace for opposing defenses, throwing for 2,082 yards, 14 TDs, and three interceptions while leading the team with 1,041 yards rushing and 16 scores.
SIU struggles to slow down Brungard, and YSU gets a key win at home.
Prediction: YSU 38-31
More FCS Predictions
RELATED: HBCU Preview & Predictions
New Hampshire at No. 7/6 Monmouth
Prediction: Monmouth 34-24
No. 14/10 Rhode Island at Elon
Prediction: Rhody 35-24
Stonehill at CCSU
Prediction: CCSU 28-17
St. Thomas at Drake
Prediction: Drake 31-24
No. 11/12 UC Davis at Idaho
Prediction: UC Davis 38-35
FCS Top 25 Schedule
Friday, Nov. 7
All times CT
6 — No. 9/13 Harvard at Columbia (ESPN2)
Saturday, Nov. 8
All times CT
11 — New Hampshire at No. 7/6 Monmouth (FloSports)
11 — Holy Cross at No. 4/4 Lehigh (ESPN+)
12 — No. 25/23 Presbyterian at Davidson (ESPN+)
12 — No. 5/5 Tennessee Tech at Eastern Illinois (ESPN+)
12 — No. 10/8 Villanova at Towson (FloSports)
12 — No. 16/17 Illinois State at Indiana State (ESPN+)
1 — No. 15/16 Southern Illinois at No. 21/22 Youngstown State (ESPN+)
1 — No. 1/1 North Dakota State at No. 13/15 North Dakota (ESPN+)
1 — No. 14/10 Rhode Island at Elon (FloSports)
1:30 — No. 12/10 Mercer at No. 24/24 Western Carolina (ESPN+)
2 — No. 17/21 Stephen F. Austin at HCU (ESPN+)
2 — Eastern Washington at No. 2/2 Montana (ESPN+)
2 — Weber State at No. 3/3 Montana State (ESPN+)
2 — No. 23/19 Jackson State at Mississippi Valley State (SWAC TV)
2 — Utah Tech at No. 18/20 Abilene Christian (ESPN+)
3 — No. 19/14 Southeastern Louisiana at No. 20/18 Lamar (ESPN+)
3 — No. 8/9 South Dakota State at No. 22/25 South Dakota (ESPNU)
6 — No. 11/12 UC Davis at Idaho (ESPN+)
