South Dakota State’s football schedule this year has eight MVFC games, two FCS non-conference matchups, one non-D1 opponent, and one FBS opponent.
Here are game-by-game predictions for SDSU, who is No. 1 in HERO Sports’ FCS Preseason Top 25.
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at Oklahoma State
SDSU’s 29-game winning streak is immediately tested against a Power 4 opponent. It’s currently the third-longest in FCS history, trailing NDSU’s 33-game and 39-game streaks.
Oklahoma State finished 10-4 last year and ranked No. 16 in the final AP poll. The Cowboys return their star RB, veteran QB, four offensive line starters, and 10 defensive starters. I expect a closer game than some in FBS land, but Oklahoma State will be too much for SDSU and pulls away for a 10-point win.
Loss
vs No. 12 UIW
This game will tell us plenty about both teams. UIW will be many people’s preseason favorite to win the Southland, although Nicholls returns a good chunk of its team that walloped UIW last year (45-32 final but it was 45-19 early in the 4th).
The Jackrabbits should win, but the score will tell us how good UIW is or how good SDSU is. SDSU will have a top secondary in the FCS, making for an entertaining matchup against a Zach Calzada-led passing attack.
Win
vs Augustana
This will be a fun game for the state — Augustana is a D2 program in Sioux Falls. But it probably won’t be a game FCS observers watch beyond the first quarter.
Win
at Southeastern Louisiana
A decent non-conference matchup. SLU has made the playoffs in 2019, 2021, and 2022. But the Lions dipped down to 3-8 last year. SDSU should win comfortably if it plays clean ball.
Win
at Northern Iowa
SDSU perhaps exorcised its UNI demons last year, beating the Panthers 41-6. UNI previously had a 4-2 record in Brookings dating back to 2015. A trip to Northern Iowa this fall won’t be easy, but SDSU’s elite secondary should be able to slow down what looks to be a pass-happy UNI offense.
Win
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vs No. 23 Youngstown State
Will YSU’s program momentum continue? Or will it slow after 10 players left for the FBS, nine of which are on the defensive side? The Penguins look to be a borderline playoff team on paper entering 2024. A week before the NDSU game, the Jacks may see a closer contest than expected here. But SDSU should get a home win.
Win
at No. 2 North Dakota State
This is a coin-flip game. I could easily make the argument on why the Bison will win — Tim Polasek giving the most fiery Fargodome pregame speech since 2016 Mike Houston, the home crowd champing at the bit to see NDSU beat SDSU for the first time in the 2020s, and a veteran Bison roster motivated to snap a five-game losing streak.
But on paper, SDSU still looks like the better team.
The gap defensively between the two was wide last year. It should narrow this fall as I think NDSU will be much improved and more consistent on defense. But the Jacks will still have an edge with eight of their top 13 tacklers returning, led by a veteran secondary and linebackers. And despite SDSU losing several offensive players to the NFL, you could make the case that NDSU actually has more offensive question marks than the Jacks. Both have top-tier QBs. Both lose their top two wide receivers, but SDSU has the most productive returning WR (in receiving) between the two in Griffin Wilde. Both lose their top running back, but SDSU returns the most productive returning RB between the two in All-Conference selection Amar Johnson. NDSU returns only two starting offensive linemen. SDSU has three if you include UND transfer Sam Hagen joining All-American Gus Miller and All-Conference Evan Beerntsen.
Win
vs No. 5 South Dakota
Back-to-back rivalry games for SDSU.
Some SDSU fans think USD’s rise last year was lightning in a bottle. But USD has the pieces returning to build off of its breakout 2023 season. Enough to close the gap from last year’s humbling 37-3 loss to SDSU? Maybe not.
A week after a physical contest at NDSU, the Jacks may be in another battle against the Coyotes. SDSU will still have too much firepower, though, especially at home.
Win
vs Murray State
Murray State is seeing an overhaul in talent on its roster, bringing in 23 FBS transfers. While that may create excitement for some, it doesn’t do much for me. I’ve seen plenty of FCS teams get worse after bringing in double-digit FBS transfers. Until I see how it gels for Murray State, this looks like SDSU will coast to a win.
Win
at North Dakota
At UND is one of the toughest places to get a win. In the final stretch of the regular season, I don’t expect a letdown performance by an SDSU team with 28 seniors on the roster. UND has preseason question marks defensively, on the o-line, and at quarterback.
Fun fact, though: Mark Gronowski’s last loss to an FCS team as a full-game starter was at UND on Feb. 27, 2021.
Win
vs No. 9 Southern Illinois
SIU will be a solid squad in 2024, although the Salukis do have questions. There is an unknown at quarterback, and only four starters return on defense. I’d expect a sharp performance for SDSU on Senior Day.
Win
at Missouri State
Missouri State’s last game as an FCS program, and the Bears could go out with a bang.
But they won’t have much to play for, both record-wise and because they are ineligible for the playoffs as part of the FBS transition. SDSU will have plenty to play for, as I expect there will be at least four teams vying for a Top 2 playoff seed and home-field advantage entering the final week of the regular season.
Win
Regular-Season Record Prediction: 11-1
South Dakota State Football Win Total
We’ll set the over/under regular-season win total for SDSU at 10.5.
Oklahoma State will be tough to go in and get a win. At NDSU is a coin-flip game, while road trips to UNI and UND are rarely easy. Add in four home games against ranked opponents, and it’s a challenging schedule. But with an offense led by Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronowski, and eight of their top 13 tacklers returning from last year’s historic defense, the Jacks looked primed for a regular-season record around 11-1 or 10-2.
