You know, since we’re on the verge of November, I’ll use this column to obviously show my ballot vote for this past week – but also give you an idea of how I think the postseason should size up. A version of bracketology, if you like.
So, the committee won’t be utilizing our media poll anymore eh? That didn’t take long (one year?). I guess it never really was a full-blown criteria, but it won’t be a part of the process at all this year. That’s too bad, because I think the media poll has improved greatly in recent years. And some of the reported computer polls to be consulted are say … ahem … working out some glitches.
So here you go.
THE PRESTIGIOUS TOP 8
NOTE: These are the schools that would receive a first-round playoff bye and host a second-round game.
NO. 1 – MONTANA STATE
LAST WEEK NO. 1 TEAM: Montana State
WHY?: Don’t like Montana State at No. 1? I don’t care. This program is seasoned, it has the No. 1 offense in the nation playing behind the No. 1 offensive line in the land with a proven stud at quarterback, and he’s healthy. I’ve said the same thing in this space for weeks now. They also have the No. 4 ranking in total defense, behind only two non-scholarship Pioneer League teams and a team from the SWAC – meaning that among likely playoff teams, MSU is your best statistical defense in the nation. This program has gone deep in the playoffs for years and looks ripe for 12-0 with an FBS win (regardless of how detractors want to paint that win over New Mexico in 20/20 hindsight). These kids don’t make the schedule, they play it – and so far they’ve done a good job of it. Right now, this is the best team in the FCS and deserves the No. 1 spot. And no, I do not care about past seasons – it has absolutely nothing to do with 2023.
NO. 2 – NORTH DAKOTA STATE
LAST WEEK NO. 2 TEAM: North Dakota State
WHY?: And yes, I really do like this North Dakota State team – and yes, if the Bison had beaten Deion’s team I’d have them in the No. 1 spot. That’s how close I think the top two are. But here’s the thing (cue SNL impression), to you, oh green and gold clad Bison faithful: Why in the hell does it really matter if you’re No. 1 or No. 2? Remember that old argument in the FBS all those years – all you need to do is finish in the top two, because that means you’re in the title game. Well, in the FCS you’re at home the whole way if you finish No. 1 or No. 2. Now, I know people are going to say “Well, we’ll get a tougher opponent with SDSU at No. 3 in the bracket and we may have to have a rematch”. Since when has NDSU been afraid of a damned playoff rematch with one of its MVFC brethren, which is exactly what looks like will happen in the FCS national semifinals? In 2024, it’s a compliment to be called a Top 2 team in the poll.
NO. 3 – SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
LAST WEEK NO. 3 TEAM: South Dakota State
WHY?: I don’t care if they lost to NDSU or a P4 or barely got past their in-state rivals at South Dakota, the Jackrabbits could still three-peat. I didn’t drop them when they lost a nailbiter to NDSU, and I’m not shooting them up the charts after the South Dakota win. Steady at three, captain.
NO. 4 – SOUTH DAKOTA
LAST WEEK NO. 4 TEAM: South Dakota
WHY?: I made a plea on Elon Musk’s home page this weekend, pleading with fellow voters to not budge South Dakota from the top four because it inherently would screw up our media poll. Several voters still did it, but not enough to ruin the poll. Thank goodness. The Coyotes are clearly top four worthy.
NO. 5 – UC DAVIS
LAST WEEK NO. 5 TEAM: UC Davis
WHY?: Right now UC Davis is the only team that could make an argument for top four that isn’t already in it. The Aggies have the best win outside the top four (over a dangerous Idaho team). It’ll get its shot at Montana State at home in a couple of weeks. Won’t that be a biggie? I can’t wait to see that game.
NO. 6 – IDAHO
LAST WEEK NO. 6 TEAM: North Dakota
WHY?: As you can see two lines above, I had Idaho at No. 9 – and then North Dakota lost, SEMO barely survived at home against unranked Gardner-Webb (6 pts), Tarleton only beat unranked Austin Peay by 10 … and I leapfrogged the Vandals. How often do Vandals leapfrog? It isn’t a hate fest with SEMO and Tarleton, I still have them in the top 10 and when you compare them to the rest of FCS, they belong in the bottom part of that picture ahead of the rest. But Idaho – with its FBS win over Wyoming, losses only to UC Davis and to Montana State, a win over ranked Abilene, etc — just has a better resume.
NO. 7 – TARLETON STATE
LAST WEEK NO. 7 TEAM: Tarleton State
WHY?: No need to repeat, please see Idaho argument at No. 6.
NO. 8 – SEMO
LAST WEEK NO. 8 TEAM: SEMO
WHY?: No need to repeat, please see Idaho argument at No. 6.
FROM NO. 9 TO NO. 16
NOTE: This is the tier that would be seeded (if they participate in the playoffs) but would still have to play in the first round.
9. UIW
10. Mercer
11. Rhode Island
12. Abilene Christian
13. Villanova
14. Richmond
15. North Dakota
16. Montana
WHY?: This is where things really get sloppy, but where it’s absolutely critical that the committee nails it (good luck, bring the Ouija Board and Tylenol). I guess the best ones right now look like Incarnate Word, Rhode Island, and Richmond – as all have at least five straight wins going for them. Everyone here has at least one hiccup, with the exception of Rhody – though the Rams don’t have that killer win just yet, either.
FROM NO. 17 TO NO. 25
NOTE: This is the tier that would not be seeded, but would be battling for a spot in the playoffs (if they aren’t conference champions)
17. Chattanooga
18. Central Arkansas
19. Harvard
20. Dartmouth
21. UT Martin
22. Illinois State
23. Stony Brook
24. ETSU
25. Duquesne
WHY?: Since we’re starting to dip into bracketology time, just yank out Harvard and Dartmouth if you want to get an idea of what I think for the roadie playoff teams in the first round (turkey week for all of you Thanksgiving fans out there). Obviously, as has been discussed plenty since the beginning of FCS time the Ivy League teams don’t do the playoffs.
So this tier will change a bunch down the stretch, and of course, we will have automatic berth teams in leagues like the Pioneer and Patriot Leagues (which I don’t have a rankable team above for them just yet).
For those last two conferences where I don’t have rankable teams, yet will have playoff teams? I’ll just say here for now that I like Drake getting in from the Pioneer (since St. Thomas-MN is STILL ineligible for the postseason – when do they get out of the D1 transition jail again?). And I guess for now I’ll go with Holy Cross in the Patriot since Lafayette hasn’t quite had the year we thought (so far).
Since I do have Duquesne as rankable at No. 25 (a team I think will win NEC and automatic playoff bid), that would bump a team like ETSU, Stony Brook, or Illinois State out – though there are valid arguments for them also being in. Sigh.
OUTSIDE THE TOP 25/PLAYOFF PICTURE BUT ARE CLOSE:
Teams like Western Carolina, Tennessee State, Lamar, and New Hampshire are a few of the schools we might want to keep an eye on in the final few weeks.
