I am grateful to have a vote in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 media poll for the 2024 season. I’ll publish my ballot every week and provide some reasoning for my order.
Notes at the bottom.
Delaware and Missouri State, FCS-to-FBS transitioning teams, are not eligible to be voted on in the Media Poll.
FCS Top 25
1. North Dakota State
2. Montana State
3. South Dakota State
4. South Dakota
5. UC Davis
6. SEMO
7. Mercer
8. UIW
9. Chattanooga
10. Idaho
11. Tarleton State
12. North Dakota
13. Montana
14. Richmond
15. Central Arkansas
16. Rhode Island
17. ETSU
18. Villanova
19. Abilene Christian
20. Western Carolina
21. William & Mary
22. NC Central
23. UT Martin
24. Illinois State
25. Southeastern Louisiana
Leaving: McNeese, Stephen F. Austin
Entering: UT Martin, Southeastern Louisiana
Most fans just focus on their team’s movement week to week. Where did we move and why? I wouldn’t do that in general, because what happens around you also impacts movement. But I especially wouldn’t do it this week.
Why? Because last week’s ballot is completely irrelevant. I threw it in the trash. I started over. Where you were ranked last week doesn’t matter.
Why? Because most (not all) of the teams below No. 6 all have a questionable loss somewhere on their schedule. Some of those losses, if happened earlier in the season, were punished hard. Now that these questionable losses have become more common, the punishment may not be as bad because of overall body of work. So I totally scrapped last week’s ballot and started over. Maybe some teams were too low last week after more evaluation. Maybe some teams were too high.
Overall body of work, quality of wins and how they’ve aged, performances on the field, who you beat and how you beat them, ranked wins against teams now ranked, etc. were all heavily weighed instead of slot voting from the weekend’s results. This is my normal routine anyway, but it is more amplified this week with some of the movement.
Some teams had byes and moved up several spots. Some teams won and dropped a few spots. Again, don’t worry about last week’s ballot. I hit a reset and evaluated where everyone is at right now and started brand new.
Teams like Tarleton, Chattanooga, Rhode Island, and Richmond ascended. Teams like Abilene Christian and Villanova dropped after looking at their overall body of work.
As far as the Top 3…
My mind hasn’t changed in that NDSU, Montana State, and SDSU are on par with each other and in a tier by themselves. We’ll see where South Dakota is at when it heads to SDSU this week and where UC Davis is at when it hosts Montana State in November.
NDSU beating SDSU 13-9 in Fargo (obviously) doesn’t change my mind from last week that the Bison are a top FCS title contender. And it doesn’t change my mind from last week that the Jackrabbits are a top FCS title contender. The pathway for SDSU just got a bit tougher because it may have to win a semifinal game on the road rather than at home.
From an NDSU perspective, one could say, “We just beat the No. 1 team despite not playing well offensively and despite being down several defensive starters by the game’s end.”
From an SDSU perspective, one could say, “We lost a 50/50 game and would have sealed a win if we could have just completed two of those passes we missed by less than a yard in the fourth quarter, despite not playing well offensively, and despite going into the hornet’s nest of the Fargodome against a team that poured a lot emotionally into this result.”
NDSU, MSU, and SDSU are all on equal footing, in my opinion, based on what I’ve seen on the field. The most fair way to rank them, though, is in that order.
NDSU is undefeated vs. the FCS and now has four ranked wins. Montana State is undefeated overall with an FBS win and one ranked win. SDSU is 5-2 overall and 4-1 vs. the FCS with two ranked wins. SDSU has the No. 3 Massey FCS strength of schedule, NDSU is No. 5, and MSU is No. 52.
SDSU shouldn’t be looked at much differently. Most neutral FCS observers had SDSU losing in a close game. And that’s exactly what happened. But ordering these teams now based on how they’ve looked throughout the season and also weighing their resumes, it should go NDSU, then MSU, then SDSU.
