I am grateful to again have a vote in the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 media poll for the 2022 season. I’ll publish my ballot every week and provide some reasoning for my order.
Notes at the bottom.
FCS Top 25
25. Southeastern Louisiana University
24. Austin Peay
23. Northern Arizona
22. Rhode Island
21. Eastern Kentucky
20. North Dakota
19. Samford
18. Eastern Washington
17. Richmond
16. Mercer
15. Holy Cross
14. UT Martin
13. William & Mary
12. Villanova
11. Jackson State
10. Chattanooga
9. Weber State
8. Delaware
7. Sacramento State
6. Missouri State
5. Incarnate Word
4. Montana State
3. South Dakota State
2. Montana
1. North Dakota State
I reevaluate my order every week, which can result in big jumps and falls. I don’t like to slot teams based on last week’s order since every week of more games we get a clearer picture. So Team A can jump Team B even if both teams had similar wins.
A lot of big movement this week.
New to my ballot are Austin Peay, Northern Arizona, Rhode Island, and Eastern Kentucky.
I like APSU’s new QB Mike DiLiello, and the Govs are 2-1 with two FCS wins (Presbyterian, MVSU) and a competitive FBS loss to WKU. NAU beat FBS-transitioning Sam Houston. I felt in the preseason that NAU could realistically be a 7-4 team this season. Going 2-1 in non-conference will be key, and ranked UND comes to town next week. Rhody was a playoff bubble team last year, and it looks sharp with a 2-0 start against FCS opponents (Stony Brook, Bryant). And EKU is 1-1, featuring a one-score loss to FBS Eastern Michigan and an FBS win against Bowling Green (7 OTs). This is another squad I think is on the playoff fringe this year.
The four teams leaving my Top 25 are ETSU, Southern Illinois, Kennesaw State, and Northern Iowa.
SIU and UNI are two 0-2 MVFC teams. UNI had a competitive loss against my No. 20 UND, so it isn’t too far out. SIU is a big disappointment after being preseason Top 10 in the media poll, losing to two FCS opponents (UIW, SEMO).
ETSU and Kennesaw are two preseason Top 10 teams for me. Is dropping them all the way out too dramatic? You could make that argument. But I don’t want to leave them in just because I was high on them in the summer. It’s OK to admit I was wrong. At least for now, as there’s plenty of time for these teams to recover. I believe there are more deserving teams right now to be ranked. Kennesaw is 0-2 with an FCS loss to Samford and a blowout loss to FBS Cincinnatti. ETSU is 1-1 with a non-counter win and an FCS loss to The Citadel.
I think head-to-head wins should carry a lot of weight early in the season. They are still important later in the season, but there are more variables to consider in October and November than in September. For example, if a 5-3 team beats an 8-0 team, you wouldn’t automatically rank that 6-3 team ahead of the 8-1 team. Early on, though? Head-to-head wins is the best variable when it’s early. If I ranked ETSU, then I should rank The Citadel. If I ranked The Citadel, then I should rank Campbell. And I’m not there yet on Campbell being a Top 25 team. So that’s why ETSU went from Top 10 to not ranked for me. But it’s only Week 2, there’s plenty of time to earn your way back in.
I kept Southeastern Louisiana University just inside my Top 25. The Lions are hard to gauge with an 0-2 record against FBS opponents. This team has a lot back from last year’s second-round playoff squad. But QB is a question mark. Let’s see how the offense looks against FCS opponents now before moving them out. I believe the Lions are still a playoff-fringe team, but we’ll get a clearer picture against subdivision foes.
Weber State made a big jump to No. 9 after its dominating 35-7 win at FBS Utah State. I had the Wildcats No. 17 last week.
Incarnate Word also jumped from No. 8 to No. 5 for me. The Cardinals have the best resume currently, dominating then-No. 9 SIU and beating FBS Nevada by two scores. You can’t always base things straight off of paper, though, and I’d pick the Top 4 teams over UIW if they were to play. UIW is still a rapid riser and looks terrific.
I flipped Montana to No. 2 and SDSU to No. 3. The Griz look like the more complete team right now. Their 24-7 score against South Dakota (a playoff team last year that returns a lot) didn’t do justice to how dominating of a performance it was. Montana has the best defense in the FCS, and transfer Lucas Johnson looks like a dude at QB. SDSU still got a quality win, beating UC Davis 24-22 (another playoff team from last year returning plenty of experience). The Jacks were in control most of this game before UC Davis came back and had a chance to tie it with a two-point conversion with a minute left. SDSU’s defense looks legit, but its offense looks shakier than Montana’s. This has more to do with Montana than punishing SDSU. Again, it’s Week 2. I won’t be afraid to switch these teams around with the more snaps I watch. But when it comes to No. 2 vs. No. 3, small details matter when deciphering a close argument.
