Week 3 FCS Predictions: UAlbany-Idaho, Mercer-Chattanooga, UIW-SIU + More

Week 3 of the 2024 FCS season features four matchups between Top 25 teams.

Let’s predict some scores.

Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 12-3
2023 Record: 96-42

Week 3

No. 17 UAlbany at No. 4 Idaho

A rematch of last year’s quarterfinals where UAlbany went to Moscow and beat Idaho 30-22. Most of the star players from that game are gone.

There are still many unknowns about the 2024 UAlbany squad. It squeaked by LIU 27-21 in an underwhelming performance before losing 49-14 at West Virginia. There are also some unknowns about Idaho’s offense as it could be down to its third-string QB this weekend.

But one thing that looks certain is Idaho’s defense is elite, perhaps the best in the FCS. The Vandals held No. 3 Oregon to 24 points and Wyoming to 13 points. Jaxton Eck has 23 total tackles against the two FBS opponents, and Keyshawn James-Newby already has five sacks.

As UAlbany still tries to find its footing offensively, Idaho should get a two-score win here. Especially at the Kibbie Dome in front of fans who are thirsting to see the Vandals at home for the first time this season.

Prediction: Idaho 28-17

No. 23 Mercer at No. 14 Chattanooga

Mercer may have the best defense in the SoCon. While not the strongest of FCS opponents, the Bears shut down Presbyterian and Bethune-Cookman in 63-10 and 31-2 wins. Isaac Dowling and Ken Standley are dudes for that unit as veteran leaders.

Chattanooga may have the best offense in the SoCon. The Mocs are getting some Top 10 votes despite being 0-2 with two FBS losses — losing at No. 15 Tennessee before nearly beating Georgia State in a 24-21 loss. Quarterback Chase Artopoeus has two great targets in Javin Whatley and Sam Phillips.

These are two playoff-level teams in the SoCon. An 0-3 start is a tough hole for the Mocs, so I think they put together a strong performance at home and get into the win column. Chattanooga is looked at as a team with the potential to make a nice playoff run. Now is the time to prove it by stringing together some wins against FCS competition.

Prediction: Chattanooga 27-24

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No. 12 UIW at No. 9 Southern Illinois

UIW pushed No. 1 SDSU last week. It was 17-17 in the third and the Cardinals trailed 31-24 early in the fourth. They no doubt earned more respect nationally as Zach Calzada especially looked like a top quarterback in the FCS.

But now the question is did UIW empty the clip in that performance? Did it pour everything into that game and won’t be able to match that intensity for the rest of the season?

The Cardinals go on another tough road trip to SIU, who is 1-1 after a solid win at Austin Peay. SIU can be a disruptive defense. Ben Bogle is a wrecking crew himself, racking up 6.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks last week.

But UIW may be able to find success passing the ball, which is what it wants to do anyway. SIU allowed 292 passing yards at Austin Peay and is allowing 320 passing yards per game through two weeks.

I can picture a flat performance by UIW and SIU rolling at home. The Salukis never lack in talent. But if there’s an “upset” to call in these four ranked matchups, I’ll go with UIW proving last week wasn’t a one-time performance.

Prediction: UIW 28-21

No. 24 Nicholls at No. 11 Sacramento State

This is a crucial game for both squads.

They enter with 0-2 records, all against FBS opponents. Sac State lost 42-24 at San Jose State and 46-30 at Fresno State. Nicholls lost 25-17 at LA Tech and 44-21 at LSU, a game that was pretty dang close in the third quarter.

These two met last year as Sac State won 38-24 at Nicholls (it was 38-10 in the fourth quarter).

Sac State’s offense hasn’t quite gelled yet as it figures out its quarterback rotation. Kaiden Bennett has been the starter and has shown flashes of great potential, but he also has a 1:3 TD:INT ratio. Carson Conklin is super-talented as well and has thrown the same number of passes (46) as Bennett with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio. We’ll see if they can find more consistency against FCS competition.

Nicholls wants to run the ball. That has been its identity for years. Collin Guggenheim is already up to 224 yards and two touchdowns. But Sac State’s defense has been tough against the run, allowing just 109 rushing yards per game.

Prediction: Sac State 31-21