Week 5 of the 2024 FCS season features five matchups between Top 25 teams.
Let’s predict some scores.
Predictions Record:
2024 Record: 24-10
2023 Record: 96-42
Week 5 Top 5 Games
No. 12 Mercer at No. 23 Wofford
Mercer is off to a hot start, sitting at 4-0 with four FCS wins over Presbyterian, Bethune-Cookman, then-No. 14 Chattanooga, and The Citadel. Its defense had been dominant, allowing nine points per game, 32.5 rushing yards per game, and 1.2 rushing yards per attempt.
Wofford has had a nice start to get itself into the Top 25 rankings. The Terriers are 2-1, beating Gardner-Webb and then-No. 14 Richmond before losing to then-No. 13 William & Mary 28-21.
The race for a SoCon title and potentially multiple playoff at-large bids will be tight. And these two will certainly be factors in that race. I don’t see Wofford’s offense having enough juice to win this game, averaging 22.7 points per game. The Terriers will have to rely on the young arm of quarterback Amari Odom, who has had a good start this year — 709 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT.
But Mercer’s defense will be too much to find consistent success on, led by Isaac Dowling, Marques Thomas, and Ken Standley.
Prediction: Mercer 28-21
No. 2 North Dakota State at No. 18 Illinois State
Illinois State is without three of its best players — RB Mason King, OL Hunter Zambrano, and OLB Amir Abdullah. Yet the Redbirds are still 3-1 overall and 3-0 vs. the FCS. Last week was their most impressive performance, beating Eastern Illinois 31-7. EIU may not have been ranked, but it returned a bulk of its starters from last year’s 8-3 team that beat Illinois State.
NDSU, also 3-1 overall and 3-0 vs. the FCS, has looked great offensively, led by Walter Payton Award contender Cam Miller at quarterback, the emergence of freshman running back CharMar Brown, quality depth at wide receiver, and an o-line playing well as it breaks in three new starters. The defense has its concerns, though. The safety play hasn’t been strong, and the front seven hasn’t lived up to its preseason hype yet.
ISU’s rushing attack could cause trouble for the Bison. Wenkers Wright has stepped up to average 111.3 rushing yards per game. QB Tommy Rittenhouse also has some running ability. NDSU ranks 58th in FCS run defense (151.5 YPG). Its tackling grade ranks No. 83 on PFF.
It’s a great road test for the Bison, who took a bit last year to get rolling. We’ll see if an early conference loss or two occurs like in 2023. But I don’t think it will happen this week, as NDSU’s depth will take over in the second half on a beat-up ISU squad.
Prediction: NDSU 31-21
No. 17 Southern Illinois at No. 5 South Dakota
While my overall predictions have been solid this year, I just haven’t quite gotten my finger on Southern Illinois. I am 1-2 when picking SIU games, incorrectly picking them to lose to UIW and beat SEMO.
Things don’t get much easier this week as we just don’t know a whole lot about South Dakota. We know the Yotes are talented and experienced based on who they bring back from last year’s quarterfinal squad. We also know success doesn’t always carry over to the next year. USD has yet to play a scholarship FCS team. It has wins over D2 Northern State and non-scholarship Drake, a competitive FBS loss at Wisconsin, and a canceled FCS game at Portland State.
SIU will be without its starting QB DJ Williams due to a hand injury. Hunter Simmons stepped in last week in the SEMO loss and went 28/48 for 341 yards and a touchdown. SIU’s ground game struggled to get going without Williams, though, who still leads the team in rushing yards. Last week, the Salukis gained just 62 yards on 30 rushes.
The Salukis will have to try and beat USD through the air, which will prove to be tough. USD owns the No. 22 PFF coverage grade. And Mike Reid, a Monmouth transfer, is playing like a top cornerback in the FCS. Time of possession could favor USD in this one if the Coyotes can get off the field on third downs, and then establish the run offensively.
Prediction: USD 35-27
No. 19 Lamar at No. 7 Central Arkansas
Lamar has had a great turnaround in Pete Rossomando’s first two seasons as head coach. From 2-9 in 2021 and 1-10 in 2022, the Cardinals went 6-5 in Rossomando’s debut season in 2023. They are out to a 3-1 start this fall, including 3-0 vs. the FCS and a ranked win over Weber State. The lone loss was a 34-27 game at Texas State, one of the top Group of Five schools.
Central Arkansas has looked the part of a title contender. Also 3-1, the Bears have dominated three FCS opponents and should have beaten FBS Arkansas State if not for an errant replay overturn. They have a Buck Buchanan Award frontrunner in DE David Walker (8.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks, 4 QB hurries). And a Walter Payton Award contender in RB ShunDerrick Powell (623 rush yards, 8 TDs).
Plus, Darius Hale (294 rush yards, 8 TDs) is a top-graded PFF FCS running back, and Will McElvain (854 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) is a veteran quarterback.
This is a good opportunity for a ranked win on UCA’s playoff resume. If the Bears play to their potential every week, we could be looking at a Top 4 seed by November.
Prediction: UCA 38-21
No. 4 Idaho at No. 14 UC Davis
What a first five games for Idaho — two FBS opponents and three ranked FCS opponents.
The Vandals look legit on defense, strong on special teams, and solid on offense considering their backup QB Jack Wagner has been thrown into a starting role. Idaho has found playmakers at running back and receiver, while its o-line looks much improved.
This is now Idaho’s fourth road game in five weeks. Can the Vandals keep their momentum going of getting more first-place votes week after week in the national polls? Or is a letdown game coming?
The matchup may be favorable this week at UC Davis.
The Aggies want to establish the run and get All-American RB Lan Larison going. He is averaging 98.3 rushing yards per game so far this fall. But Idaho’s front seven is stout, perhaps the best in the FCS. The Vandals allow just 104 rushing yards per game, an impressive figure especially considering the level of competition. If UC Davis pulls off this upset, it needs Miles Hastings to take his game to another level. The Aggies aren’t great at consistently stretching a defense vertically. Hastings has thrown for 1,082 yards, but he has a 6:5 TD:INT ratio.
I don’t see UC Davis finding enough success on this Idaho defense. And the Vandals may find themselves in a lower-scoring game, but they will hit on enough explosive plays to pull out a way.
Prediction: Idaho 24-17
More FCS Predictions
Southeastern Louisiana at No. 16 Tarleton State
Tarleton State RB Kayvon Britten must be salivating after watching film. Last week, SDSU’s Kirby Vorhees rushed five times for 179 yards and three touchdowns on SLU’s defense. Also last week, Britten had 21 carries for 273 yards and four TDs at North Alabama. He leads the nation with 660 rushing yards this season, and Britten will continue his All-American-level season as Tarleton remains undefeated vs. FCS opponents.
Prediction: Tarleton State 41-21
ETSU at The Citadel
I’m a bit surprised that ETSU is still not ranked in the national polls. I had the Bucs No. 20 on my ballot last week and No. 18 this week. They nearly beat No. 2 NDSU, and then I was just as impressed with their 34-14 road win at Elon, a team I was high on. Jaylen King looked great, going 17/28 for 233 yards while rushing for 93 yards and two scores. ETSU keeps it rolling over The Citadel, a team you can never overlook in SoCon play.
Prediction: ETSU 35-17
No. 8 Montana at Eastern Washington
In my Montana preseason game-by-game predictions article, I had the Grizzlies going 10-2. I picked them to lose this game, but that was more of an “I think Montana will lose an early contest that we don’t expect, but I don’t think it’ll be against Missouri State or Western Carolina at home, and I have too many questions about UND, so let’s go with EWU” kind of prediction.
Turns out it was the UND game that was Montana’s early season loss. I think the Griz go on a nice run here to open Big Sky play, continuing to get better offensively and defensively as they rise in the rankings again. Montana has never won on EWU’s red turf since it was installed in 2010. That changes Saturday against a 2024 EWU team that underwhelmed in the non-conference.
Prediction: Montana 38-27
Portland State at Chattanooga
We don’t get many Big Sky vs. SoCon non-conference matchups. I wrote about why this game was so intriguing during the offseason. To sum it up, Big Sky followers believe the SoCon is overrated and its non-playoff teams could beat the SoCon’s best teams. SoCon followers believe the Big Sky is overrated and overvalued by poll voters and the playoff committee, which leads the high seeds and home games.
Chattanooga is a top SoCon team, and Portland State can be a middle-of-the-pack Big Sky team. So we’ll see.
Both squads are 0-3 with the two toughest FCS strength of schedules so far. I’ll go with the home team here. The Mocs are still in the playoff hunt despite its record (two FBS losses), so this is a must-win.
Prediction: Chattanooga 31-21
