Week 9 of the 2025 FCS season is here.
After a 5-2 mark last week, let’s predict some more scores.
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Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 75-22
2024 Record: 126-40
FCS Week 9 Predictions
No. 1/1 NDSU at No. 2/2 SDSU Prediction
For the second consecutive year, the Dakota Marker features a clash between the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country.
Last season, SDSU put its 5-game winning streak over the Bison on the line, and NDSU came out victorious before adding a second consecutive win in the semifinals. This year, SDSU puts its 33-game home winning streak on the line. It is the longest active home winning streak in the FCS and the fourth-longest in subdivision history.
The obvious top storyline is the health of SDSU QB Chase Mason (1,419 passing yards, 11 TDs, 1 INT, 4 rushing TDs). He suffered what is believed to be an ankle injury last week at Murray State, finishing the drive after the injury occurred with a touchdown run before jogging off the field slightly hobbled. Mason didn’t return to the game.
He’s a difference-maker in this one. Mason has elite arm talent and an array of pass-catchers to work with. While he hasn’t run it much this year after being known as a running QB in previous seasons, his mobility is key. If Mason doesn’t play, it heavily tips the scales toward NDSU, who would already be favored against a fully healthy Mason-led team. If he plays and is limited, that’s also a major deal. The backup is Luke Marble, a transfer from Northern Illinois. He showed a nice skillset last week at Murray State after settling in, but a redshirt freshman QB getting thrust into the Dakota Marker game isn’t ideal.
If the Jackrabbits are going to win this game, they will need to do it through the air. SDSU’s ground game has been too inconsistent this season to provide much confidence that it’ll get going enough against a Bison defense allowing 10.0 points per game and 95.7 rushing yards per game. NDSU’s d-line depth will be tested, though, as standout DT and captain Jaxon Duttenhefer is likely to miss Saturday after suffering a neck injury last week.
If Mason can go and the offensive line — which has the No. 9 PFF pass-blocking grade in the FCS — can give him time, SDSU may be able to find success spreading NDSU’s defense out and throwing it around, which then lightens the box for running back Julius Loughridge. Illinois State found some success throwing it on NDSU’s secondary a few weeks ago. The Jacks have four receivers who have been reliable – Alex Bullock, Lofton O’Groske (who is working his way back from injury), Jack Smith, and Grahm Goering.
RELATED: Playoff Implications For NDSU-SDSU
On the other side of the ball, NDSU’s new-look offensive line has been strong this season. But some opposing defenses have generated a pretty good pass-rush at times. Getting to Cole Payton or pushing him off his spot is one thing, though; getting him down has proven difficult. Payton has had an electrifying season, throwing for 1,565 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception while rushing for 475 yards and six scores.
The Jacks have one of the best defensive lines in the FCS, and their linebacker trio of Cullen McShane, Joe Ollman, and Chase Van Tol is top-notch. They’ll have to play at an incredibly high level to slow down an NDSU offense that has been rolling, scoring 43.6 points per game. The Bison are just as dangerous throwing the ball as running it, and receivers Bryce Lance and RaJa Nelson have had huge moments in this rivalry series.
NDSU has looked like a more complete team this season, a more buttoned-up operation. It has had slower starts and choppy first halves in the last three games, but the final results were still mostly lopsided wins. SDSU has spun its tires offensively at different points in games this year. But similar to NDSU, the Jacks have still won games by scores of 31-3 and 35-14 despite less-than-desirable performances.
I have some trust in SDSU’s defense. I have some trust in NDSU’s offense. And I have some trust in NDSU’s defense. The two areas of concern in this matchup are SDSU’s inconsistent offense and its struggling kicking game. That, and NDSU’s ability to win in the margins and make the winning plays in crucial moments in games of magnitude, has me leaning toward an NDSU victory, sealed late in the fourth quarter by going up two scores.
Prediction: NDSU 27-17
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No. 4/4 Montana at Sac State Prediction
Sac State President, Dr. Luke Wood, called Montana the pandas, said Montana hasn’t played anyone (despite Sac State losing to a Cal Poly team that the Grizzlies beat by three scores, and Montana owning a win over UND, one of the hottest teams in the FCS), and questioned if Montana fans even travel or watch their team (despite many metrics showing Montana has the most engaged fan base in the FCS).
He was joking around, of course.
But that didn’t stop Montana head coach Bobby Hauck from calling Wood a clown, something he said out loud that many other FCS coaches and administrators are thinking, as the antics haven’t been exclusive to just this week. Woods’ messaging, unfilled promises, and half-filled promises in Sac State’s FBS pursuit have rubbed many people the wrong way, and that includes several Sac State fans sharing their thoughts this week on social media.
So that adds fuel to what was already going to be an intense tackle football game Friday night on ESPN2.
The Hornets are eyeing a needle-moving win that gets them back into the Top 25. Montana looks to add a quality road win to its resume as it chases a high playoff seed.
Sac State’s defense hasn’t looked impressive in recent games, although it is quite disruptive with 53 team TFLs and 25 team sacks (tied with Rhody for No. 1 in the FCS), led by Jayland McGlothen’s six sacks and Dylan Hampsten’s eight TFLs. That could be an issue for a Montana offensive line that hasn’t played at a high level so far this season. Montana’s offense has hit some lulls in games, but when it gets rolling, it’s among the most explosive in the FCS. Keali’i Ah Yat has been fantastic, throwing for 2,042 yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Eli Gillman is already up to 776 rushing yards and 11 TDs. And Michael Wortham leads the FCS with 170.3 all-purpose yards per game.
Offensively, the Hornets establish the run to set up the pass. QB play hasn’t been strong, though, as Cardell Williams has thrown for 893 yards, six TDs, and four interceptions. But Sac State does a good job of hitting its speedy receivers over the top once a secondary gets dirty eyes and is peeking into the backfield expecting run.
I think Sac State can do some things to stay in this game – Feed off of an energized crowd, win the line of scrimmage defensively, and hit some explosive plays offensively. But Montana is going to be ultra-focused in this one. When you get to this point in the season, the week-to-week grind for college-aged players can get monotonous. Coaches will do whatever they can to increase the sense of urgency every week or provide bulletin board material to try to avoid that letdown performance. I don’t think Montana will have to try too hard to be sharp and fired up for this one.
Prediction: Montana 38-24
No. 18/20 Illinois State at No. 21/NR South Dakota Prediction
The hype behind NDSU-SDSU and Montana-Sac State has taken some shine off this matchup, which is a massive one.
Both teams have three overall losses, two vs. FCS opponents. The loser of this game would then face the pressure of winning out and avoiding a fifth loss. In a 12-game season, 8-4 likely gets you into the playoffs from the MVFC, but a 7-5 mark would need a ton of help on the bubble. The Coyotes have three more ranked opponents after this weekend, hosting UND and SDSU before going to SIU. ISU has to play UNI, Indiana State, SDSU, and SIU.
Can either of these teams make it through the regular season without two more losses? The push for a playoff bid starts Saturday.
The Redbirds have been in some high-scoring affairs this season, including beating Murray State 46-32 two games ago and losing 40-35 to Youngstown State last week. USD, meanwhile, has had to grind out wins. The Yotes are on a three-game winning streak since a blowout loss at NDSU, including beating Indiana State 19-14 and UNI 17-14 in the last two contests.
ISU is allowing 31.3 points per game and 142.6 rushing yards per game. USD’s offense is still a work in progress, but a bright spot is the emergence of running back L.J. Phillips Jr. in place of injured star Charles Pierre Jr. Phillips has rushed for 1,061 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and 132.6 yards per game.
Redbirds standout receiver Daniel Sobkowicz (39 catches, 582 yards, 7 TDs) is expected to miss this week due to an upper-body injury. That’s a tough loss for an offense scoring 31.6 PPG and for QB Tommy Rittenhouse, who has thrown for 1,387 yards, 18 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
This is a toss-up game. I don’t feel great about USD’s offense. But I also don’t feel great about ISU’s defense. In a needed win, I think USD continues to find a way to win and extends its 11-game home winning streak.
Prediction: South Dakota 28-24
More FCS Predictions
No. 14/17 Harvard at Princeton
Two 2-0 teams in the Ivy League square off. Harvard keeps on rolling to improve to 6-0. Prediction: Harvard 35-17
No. 19/16 Presbyterian at Dayton
Presbyterian improves to 8-0, defeating a Dayton squad that is 3-1 in Pioneer Football League play. Prediction: Presbyterian 34-17
William & Mary at New Hampshire
UNH is 4-4, while W&M is 4-3. It’s a crucial game to stay alive on the playoff bubble. The Tribe extends its winning streak to three games. Prediction: William & Mary 28-24
No. 3/3 Tarleton State at Eastern Kentucky
EKU has a 10-game home winning streak and hasn’t lost at Roy Kidd Stadium since 2023. It’s a good test for a Tarleton State team, but the Texans are rolling right now. Prediction: Tarleton State 42-24
No. 5/5 Montana State at Cal Poly
Cal Poly is an improved team, beating ranked Sac State, losing to Top 10 UC Davis by a touchdown, and holding a halftime lead at Top 5 Montana before losing 28-9. A trap game? MSU’s bye week should help with a strong road performance. Prediction: Montana State 35-17
UIW at UTRGV
UIW went from preseason Top 5 to totally off the national radar. The Cardinals are 2-5 and just lost to East Texas A&M. UTRGV, in its football debut season, is 5-2 and nearly knocked off ranked Lamar last week. Prediction: UTRGV 38-27
The Citadel at Furman
Furman and The Citadel meet for the 105th time in a series that dates back to 1913. Furman has won four straight in the rivalry, but The Citadel ends that streak this week. Prediction: The Citadel 31-28
