The FCS playoffs are underway! Twenty-four teams are playing to determine a true football national champion.
Who are the top favorites? Who are the long-shots?
Sam Herder ranks his favorites to win the national title of the remaining teams in the field. This list will get knocked down from 24 to 16 to eight to four and then it’s national title time.
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IMPORTANT: There’s a 99 percent chance multiple people will arrive in my mentions without reading this very important message. This is NOT a ranking of the 24 best teams in the playoffs. The postseason is all about matchups. If your potential second-round game is against NDSU, you’re probably not going to be very high on this list. If you get sent to a No. 7 or 8 seed after a first-round win, you have a better chance of advancing further in the playoffs. Just because a team is ranked higher than another team doesn’t mean they are better, it just means they have a better opportunity to advance further. Make sense? I sure hope so.
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24. Holy Cross
Holy Cross is no slouch. It defeated the CAA’s New Hampshire 13-10 early this season and scheduled tough in the nonconference. But I do give a slight edge to Monmouth in Saturday’s game. Even if Holy Cross were to win, a trip to James Madison is not looking great.
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23. Monmouth
As I stated above, I give Monmouth a slight edge to defeat Holy Cross in the first round. The Hawks are a solid team and gave Montana a scare into the fourth quarter earlier this season. But knocking off James Madison would be a much bigger upset than what Colgate did last year.
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22. San Diego
I think the San Diego-UNI game is going to be closer than a lot of people think. This Toreros team is loaded with talent. But UNI is one of the stronger unseeded teams. If San Diego were to pull off the win, another trip to the Midwest to visit SDSU would be a big-time challenge.
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21. North Dakota
UND is faced with a tough road trip to Nicholls. The Fighting Hawks are 1-4 away from Grand Forks and take on a veteran team with playoff experience. I lean toward the Colonels in this game. Even if UND did get the win, the Hawks would revisit the Fargodome in the second round where they lost 38-7 in September.
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20. Nicholls
I do think Nicholls will defeat UND on Saturday. Had the Colonels been matched up with a different seed like, oh I don’t know, No. 8 Central Arkansas, who they beat by 20 earlier this season, they’d be much higher on this list. But Nicholls will run into a buzzsaw in the second round. It’s just the reality when facing NDSU early in the playoffs.
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19. Kennesaw State
The Owls got a first-round matchup against a team that won’t flinch when it comes to defending the option. Wofford has won eight straight games against the FCS and is rolling right now. I have the Terriers winning, although I think this could be one of the better games on Saturday. Last year these two teams faced off in the second round and it was a 13-10 KSU win. Another Owls win wouldn’t shock me, but I don’t see a potential second-round trip against a physical Weber State team going all that well.
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18. Furman
Furman was a tough team to figure out during the regular season. And no doubt the Paladins have drawn some criticism from folks across the FCS for getting into the playoff field. But when this team is clicking, it’s pretty dang good. Furman visits Austin Peay, which I think will have one of the more rocking home crowds in the first round. I don’t see a Furman win here, and definitely don’t see either of these teams knocking off Sacramento State in the next round.
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17. Albany
Will CCSU give Albany the Duquesne to Towson treatment? I don’t think it’ll be a blowout, but I do like the Blue Devils winning. The Great Danes have squeaked by some non-playoff opponents to end the regular season. Meanwhile, CCSU is playing tremendous ball.
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16. Central Connecticut State
As I stated right above here, I think CCSU is going to beat Albany. The Blue Devils are balanced on offense and are legit on defense. I do believe it’ll be a close game, which is why CCSU is one spot ahead of the Great Danes. A tough road trip to Montana State follows, though.
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15. Illinois State
The Redbirds are really struggling on offense, especially since losing its starting QB Brady Davis to a season-ending knee injury. ISU lost last week 21-3 at YSU. Bryce Jefferson and Jack Baltz (both freshman) went a combined 3-16 passing for 30 yards and three interceptions. I don’t like this matchup against SEMO, who allows just 138 rushing yards per game.
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14. Austin Peay
I like the Govs to defeat Furman in the first round. But what follows is a challenging trip to Sacramento State. The Hornets are new to the playoffs, so that could be one factor. Then again, so is Austin Peay. That second-round game may be a battle, but Sac State is the No. 4 seed for a reason.
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13. Wofford
I’m taking Wofford over Kennesaw in the first round. That would result in an intriguing second-round game at No. 3 seed Weber State. The Wildcats have an amazing defensive front. And Wofford has tremendous experience on its offensive line to help move the chains for its option offense. Weber is 25-5 at home since 2015 and hasn’t lost in Ogden all season long. This would be a huge upset for Wofford and I don’t see it happening.
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12. Southeastern Louisiana
To me, the SLU vs. Nova game is the toughest to predict. The Lions are 4-2 at home while Nova has won three straight to end the regular season. I give the small edge to the Wildcats, but I don’t see either team having much success traveling out to Montana in the second round and getting a win.
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11. Villanova
*Read the description above
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10. Southeast Missouri State
SEMO has a good matchup in the first round against a struggling Illinois State offense. It’ll be the job of SEMO’s offense to get a few scores on the board against a strong ISU defense to get the win. I think that’ll happen. These two got the best draw as far as being matched up with seeds. Central Arkansas is the No. 8 seed and has been up and down this year. The Bears did beat the OVC’s Austin Peay 24-16 in September. I’d favor UCA to beat SEMO next Saturday, but not by much.
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9. Central Arkansas (#8 seed)
The Bears are a bit of a mystery. They have a great resume with an 8-2 record versus the FCS plus an FBS win. But those two losses were blowouts against Nicholls and SLU. I do think UCA can beat either SEMO or ISU in the second round. But that No. 8 seed means you’re heading to the Fargodome in the quarterfinals.
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8. Northern Iowa
UNI feels like it got snubbed from a seed. While I disagree with that (UNI and SDSU have identical resumes and the Jacks beat UNI 38-7 a couple of weeks ago), the Panthers can prove it by defeating San Diego in the first round and then heading back to Brookings. I’d still favor SDSU to win, but the Panthers are getting healthier and I expect a much, much closer battle than a 31-point SDSU win.
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7. South Dakota State (#7 seed)
The Jacks face the winner of San Diego-UNI. I mentioned the previous matchup between the Panthers above. While SDSU looked great in that blowout win, its loss at South Dakota to end the regular season was ugly. The Jackrabbits have a week off now to heal up and maybe get some offensive weapons back, especially in the backfield. I believe the Jacks can reach the quarterfinals. However, I don’t think a trip to James Madison results in a win.
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6. Sacramento State (#4 seed)
Sac State gets the winner of Austin Peay and Furman, which should be a favorable matchup for the Hornets. Then we’re likely looking at a rematch against Montana State, a team the Hornets beat 34-21 in Bozeman earlier this year. Now, I do give a small edge to the Bobcats in this quarterfinal game. They are playing at a higher level than last month. We’ll see if the Hornets can get some of their early-season lightning back with a week off to get healthier.
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5. Montana State (#5 seed)
The Bobcats looked like a force with a dominating 48-14 win against Montana to end the regular season. This was a week after the Griz looked like a force with a 35-16 victory against then-No. 3 ranked Weber State. MSU has built its team the right way to win games in the playoffs: play good defense and run the hell out of the ball. I hate to be a buzzkill, but the reality is a team on the top half of the bracket isn’t going to Frisco. NDSU is just a machine right now, which is why teams 2-4 here are ahead of Montana State.
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4. Montana (#6 seed)
Montana State proved it’s a better team than Montana last week. But again (I hope you guys didn’t scroll past the long italicized paragraph), this isn’t a ranking of the best teams. This is a ranking of who has the best path to a national title. And the Griz’s path is a little clearer than their rival’s, but it’s still not a great one. Montana would have to win at Weber State, which I think the Griz can. They hammered the Wildcats just a couple of weeks ago, but Weber is a different animal at home. And even with a quarterfinal win, Montana would then fly across the country and play at James Madison. That’s a brutal two games just to have a chance at a national championship.
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3. Weber State (#3 seed)
The Wildcats get a couple of games at home, which is just huge. This team is 17-2 in Ogden since 2017. That 2017 season ended with a heartbreaking loss at top-seeded JMU 31-28, a game in which Weber had every chance to win. Last year ended with a home loss in the quarterfinals to Maine. Weber’s route to a national title is a tough one. It’s likely to see Montana visit for a clash in the quarterfinals. And then it’d be another trip to JMU. That’d be a battle, but the Dukes are just too loaded this year.
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2. James Madison (#2 seed)
The bottom half of the bracket has plenty more landmines than the top half. UNI or SDSU could be scary teams for the Dukes in the quarterfinals. The semifinals would likely be a dangerous Weber State team or an explosive Montana team that has looked fantastic at times this season. But JMU is too talented, experienced and well-coached to fall short of Frisco. Once there, I think the Dukes are much closer to NDSU than some people may think. It’s just hard to predict against the Bison right now.
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1. North Dakota State (#1 seed)
The narrative of the playoff committee doing everything in its power to prevent another NDSU national title kind of blew up in the faces of those who believe that. First of all, the process of how the field is formed doesn’t even allow the committee to stack one side of the bracket on purpose. And second, this appears to be the most favorable road to Frisco NDSU has ever had. So there’s that. Plus, the Bison usually crank it up a notch when the postseason hits. That’s a scary thought for a 12-0 squad.
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NEXT: First-Round Score Predictions
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