We're nearing the halfway point of the 2019 FCS season, which means the margin for error for playoff hopefuls is getting smaller.
The race for the 4-5 postseason bids for the Big Sky Conference is going to be a tight one. With a 12-game schedule, hitting eight Division 1 wins is key while winning seven gives you a shot, depending on who those wins come against.
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With that said, let's look at every Big Sky team, including North Dakota (who is not in the standings but plays a Big Sky schedule while transitioning to the MVFC), at this point in the season and guess what percentage they have to make the 24-team bracket.
We'll do this for the Top 3 conferences that for sure have at least three bids.
Oct. 8: Big Sky
Oct. 9: CAA
Oct. 10: MVFC
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Cal Poly
Record: 2-3 overall, 2-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ UC Davis, vs. UND, vs. Sac St, @ Idaho, vs. EWU, @ UNC
40 percent – The Mustangs may regret playing only 11 games this year as they're not in too bad of a position right now to hit seven wins. They took No. 6 Montana State to overtime on Saturday in an impressive effort. If Cal Poly plays like it did against the Bobcats, there isn't an upcoming opponent that the Mustangs should fear. They'll have a shot in all of the remaining games. Actually finishing the season 5-1 or 6-0 is quite the tall task, though.
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Eastern Washington
Record: 2-4 overall, 1-3 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. UNC, @ Mont, vs. NAU, @ Idaho St, @ Cal Poly, vs. PSU
35 percent – EWU is halfway through its schedule and only has one FCS win. It's been a massively underwhelming season for the 2018 national runner-ups and the issues started before injuries piled up on defense. The Eagles have to win out to hit seven D1 wins and maybe reach the playoffs. It's not impossible. But based on play so far, it's hard to imagine EWU getting a win at Montana. If the Eagles handle business against Northern Colorado and then upset the Griz, then the season can turn around. Major issues need to be fixed before that happens.
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Idaho
Record: 2-4 overall, 1-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ PSU, vs. Idaho St, vs. Cal Poly, @ Mont, vs. Sac St, @ NAU
36 percent – Idaho impressed with a win against then-ranked EWU but then suffered a head-scratching loss at Northern Colorado. This last week, the Vandals battled No. 4 Weber State to the final whistle in a 41-35 loss. This is another team that needs to win out to hit seven D1 wins. I don't have much confidence in that happening with a road trip to Montana and tough home games against Idaho State, Cal Poly and Sacramento State. I put Idaho one percent higher than EWU since both teams have one FCS win, but the Vandals have the head-to-head on EWU.
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Idaho State
Record: 2-3 overall, 1-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. UND, @ Idaho, @ SUU, vs. UNC, vs. EWU, @ BYU, @ Weber
45 percent – I understand it's hard to schedule games for schools out west and budgets are tight. But teams like Idaho State, who was on the playoff bubble last year and looks like it will be again this season, need to stop scheduling non-counter games. The administration isn't doing the players, coaches and fans any favors scheduling D2 or lower-division opponents. Anyway, the Bengals are a tough team to figure out. They battled UNI in a 13-6 road loss. Last week, they took a 17-0 lead on Montana before losing 59-20. But the Bengals do have a decent schedule up until the last two games. If Idaho State can defeat UND at home this week, stay clean against so-so opponents (besides the game at BYU) and get a big upset at Weber in the regular-season finale, we're looking at a 7-2 team versus the FCS. That does seem easier said than done, though.
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Montana
Record: 5-1 overall, 5-0 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 1 (No. 24 UC Davis)
Remaining Games: @ Sac St, vs. EWU, @ PSU, vs. Idaho, vs. Weber, @ MSU
80 percent – The Griz have seen late-season collapses in recent years, but there's no sign of that happening in 2019. Montana is absolutely rolling right now and is not only eyeing a playoff return but a playoff seed. Challenges still await, though. Sacramento State is no slouch on the road. EWU can get hot at any time. And the final two games come against teams ranked in the Top 10: versus Weber and at rival Montana State. If the Griz play to their potential and don't put any stock into articles like this, the playoffs are damn near a certainty. But they have to avoid taking a quarter or two off against the upcoming opponents or they'll get knocked off.
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Montana State
Record: 5-1 overall, 5-0 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 1 (No. 20 SEMO)
Remaining Games: vs. Sac St, @ UND, vs. SUU, @ UNC, @ UC Davis, vs. Mont
75 Percent – The Bobcats haven't exactly lit the world on fire with narrow wins against Western Illinois, NAU (18-point win but a big comeback was needed) and Cal Poly. But wins are wins and MSU is 5-0 against FCS foes. The overall play needs to improve against the next two opponents also eyeing the postseason in Sac State and UND. Plus, MSU has had some key players banged up. The final two opponents will be a big challenge as UC Davis can still be a dangerous team and Montana has its best-looking team in years. But I think the Bobcats are solid enough on defense and dynamic in the running game to go 4-1 or even 5-0 into the Brawl of the Wild game. Just like their bitter rival, the Bobcats aren't just playing for the playoffs, but a playoff seed. Something disastrous would have to happen for this team to be left out of the bracket.
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North Dakota (*)
Record: 3-2 overall, 3-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 2 (No. 24 UC Davis, No. 25 SHSU)
Remaining Games: @ Idaho St, @ Cal Poly, vs. MSU, @ Weber, vs. UNC, vs. SUU
*UND is an independent team this year while playing a Big Sky schedule. The Fighting Hawks are not in the Big Sky standings, but games against UND do count toward the standings. Example: UND defeating UC Davis counts as a conference loss for the Aggies.
50 percent – Playing 11 games, the Fighting Hawks want to hit eight wins to truly feel comfortable about their playoff chances. 7-4 with the potential of UC Davis and SHSU falling out of the Top 25 causes a 50/50 spot on the bubble. So while UND has to handle business, it should also be cheering for the Aggies and Bearkats to finish strong and for EWU to figure things out. The Fighting Hawks got through the toughest part of their schedule with a winning record, but it doesn't ease up a whole lot. Idaho State has been a thorn in their side recently and Cal Poly plays really well at home. Then it's two games versus Top 10 opponents versus Montana State and at Weber State before two favorable home games to end the regular season. I can see four more wins here. The question is can UND find a fifth win to lock down a playoff bid and not leave it in the playoff committee's hands to decide their fate?
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Northern Arizona
Record: 3-3 overall, 2-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ Weber, vs. PSU, @ EWU, vs. Sac St, @ SUU, vs. Idaho
40 percent – NAU isn't the easiest team to figure out. The Lumberjacks lost 40-27 on the road to now-No. 14 Illinois State, a team we aren't exactly sure on how good it is. The next week they went up 21-0 on now-No. 6 Montana State before losing 49-31. Yeah, yikes. And last week they looked pretty solid against a not-so-good Northern Colorado squad. The remaining schedule isn't so bad, but finding five wins to hit seven D1 victories is a challenge. And even seven wins wouldn't guarantee a playoff bid. NAU has two weeks to prepare for a key road trip to No. 4 Weber State. An upset there would be massive and would shake up the playoff picture.
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Northern Colorado
Record: 1-5 overall, 1-3 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ EWU, vs. PSU, @ Idaho St, vs. MSU, @ UND, vs. Cal Poly
1 percent – UNC's 27-24 win against Idaho, a week after the Vandals defeated EWU, was impressive. That's been the only bright spot to this season, though, unless you want to count a close loss to South Dakota or a 35-18 loss to FBS San Jose State to open the season. It's not impossible for the Bears to win six straight games. But there are a lot of far-fetched things that aren't technically impossible.
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Portland State
Record: 3-3 overall, 1-1 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. Idaho, @ UNC, @ NAU, vs. Mont, vs. UC Davis, @ EWU
10 percent – The Vikings had such a bizarre nonconference schedule that really didn't do them any favors. They played zero FCS teams, facing two FBS opponents and two non-counters. And PSU didn't look all too bad in a 20-13 loss at Arkansas in Game 1. But with just one D1 win so far, that's a monumental task to build a playoff resume.
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Sacramento State
Record: 3-2 overall, 2-0 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ MSU, vs. Mont, @ Cal Poly, vs. Weber, @ NAU, @ Idaho, vs. UC Davis
50 percent – The Hornets are 2-0 against FCS competition and have had some statement wins. They defeated Northern Colorado 50-0 and Eastern Washington 48-27. Sac State has also competed well against Arizona State and Fresno State, which doesn't help their playoff resume but does show this is a strong team. The Hornets do have a non-counter win against Southern Oregon, which isn't ideal. We'll see just how for real this team is in the next two games against the Montana schools. Sac State also has some tough road trips and hosts Weber State and UC Davis. Right now, with the 2-0 start, I'll say it's a 50/50 shot at the playoffs until I see what they do against the Bobcats and Grizzlies.
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Southern Utah
Record: 1-5 overall, 1-4 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ Weber, vs. UC Davis, vs. Idaho St, @ MSU, vs. NAU, @ UND
1 percent – It's just not going to be SUU's year in 2019. The Thunderbirds have only one D1 win and their next six opponents all have playoff hopes.
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UC Davis
Record: 2-4 overall, 2-3 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. Cal Poly, @ SUU, vs. Weber, @ PSU, vs. MSU, @ Sac St
45 percent – A team I felt confident was going to contend for a national title is now 2-3 against FCS opponents. There have been some injuries to the starting lineup, but the team still just isn't playing to its potential. The Aggies looked awesome and gave NDSU a scare. But then a blowout loss to Montana raised eyebrows and a 38-36 loss at UND, who's a fringe playoff team, made us scratch our heads. The Aggies have to finish 6-0 to feel good about their playoff chances. Going 5-1 gives them a shot at the bracket with seven wins, depending on who they beat. Home wins against Weber and Montana State would go a long way. This team has the talent to do it. I'll go with 45 percent here, slightly below UND since the Fighting Hawks may end up with the same number of wins as UC Davis, but have the head-to-head advantage.
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Weber State
Record: 3-2 overall, 3-0 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 1 (No. 10 UNI)
Remaining Games: vs. SUU, vs. NAU, @ UC Davis, @ Sac St, vs. UND, @ Mont, vs. Idaho St
70 percent – The Wildcats have built a strong resume to start, going 3-0 against the FCS with a win against now-No. 10 Northern Iowa. This team is always tough at home and four of the remaining seven games are in Ogden. The concern comes with the road games. At UC Davis, Sac State and Montana are all going to be battles. Weber didn't have its best game this last week against Idaho. So there are some corrections that need to be made. But the defense remains its strength and the running game is starting to get going. It'd take a lot for this team to miss the playoffs. And right now, the Wildcats are eyeing a seed.
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NEXT: Top 15 Favorites To Win The National Title After Week 6
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