The FCS now has one more day to determine its playoff bracket. We did see key games played on Thursday and Friday night, and those games are now resolved. How does it look now that only one day remains to set up FCS Selection Sunday (12:30 p.m. ET – ESPNU)? Sam is in Bozeman, Mont. covering The Brawl of the Wild, Montana at Montana State — a massive matchup for the FCS this weekend. But I'll take a stab at things going into Saturday, now that we know more about the Southland Conference playoff picture.
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QUICK SUMMARY: On Thursday and Friday we had some key results that could change the dynamic slightly going into Saturday's massive slate of tide-turners. Nicholls clinched the Southland Conference's automatic playoff berth on Thursday, and tonight Central Arkansas hit the untouchable 9-win mark to be a rock-solid at-large team out of the Southland. With wins over a bowl-eligible FBS team (Western Kentucky) and one loss tossed (at Hawaii), the Bears are in, folks. They're in solidly. So how does that affect the rest of the FCS? We take a look heading into Saturday. SE Louisiana is a distant bubble team situation now, the Lions are going to have to hope for a ton of help in this. They need Maine, North Dakota and The Citadel to lose, for one. That might get SE La. into the discussion picture, in my opinion. We shall see.
One slight change from last weekend … I'm "projecting" here. In prior weeks, I've released those "as of this week" rankings because we just had too much "projecting" to do. I picked Albany to lose at Stony Brook, thus what you see below. If that doesn't happen? Albany is a playoff lock in my opinion. I picked The Citadel to lose to Wofford, but obviously if that is wrong? Wofford is knocked out of a seeding situation and The Citadel is firmly in the playoffs … and for most of the teams listed in the at-large realm (SIU is an exception), I'm obviously thinking they'll win this weekend to sew this up.
Now we're down to one week. This is what I think is going to happen prior to Saturday's results. Folks, if you're listed as "barely in" below? Root for everybody else to lose that is above you. Same goes for "the bubble". That is how this will go down. And anybody without a (*) or (+)? You're going to want all of those without those earmarks to fall … it'll help your case..[divider]
B-MAC'S FCS PLAYOFF LOOK GOING INTO SATURDAY
(SOS– Massey's FCS Strength of Schedule ratings this week)
| NO | WEEK 13 OUTLOOK | REC | STRK | SOS | WEEK 13 RESULT | LOSSES | TOP WINS |
| 1 | NDSU* | 11-0 | W11 | 22 | at Southern Ill. | NONE | Ill. St., SDSU, UNI, UND |
| 2 | JMU* | 10-1 | W9 | 18 | at Rhode Island | FBS West Virginia | Villanova, Towson |
| 3 | MONTANA+ | 9-2 | W4 | 2 | at Montana State | FBS Oregon, at Sac St | Weber State, Monmouth |
| 4 | SACRAMENTO ST.+ | 8-3 | W2 | 3 | vs. UC Davis | 2 FBS, Weber State | Montana, Montana St. |
| 5 | ILLINOIS ST.+ | 8-3 | W2 | 27 | at Youngstown St. | FBS No. Illinois, NDSU, UNI | SIU, SDSU |
| 6 | SDSU+ | 8-3 | W1 | 10 | at So. Dakota | FBS Minnesota, NDSU, Ill. St. | SIU, UNI |
| 7 | WEBER+ | 8-3 | L1 | 1 | vs. Idaho State | 2 FBS, at Montana | UNI, at Sac. St., UND |
| 8 | WOFFORD* | 7-3 | W2 | 50 | at The Citadel | FBS Clemson, S.C. State, Samford | Furman |
| NEC | CCSU* | 10-1 | W7 | 101 | at Duquesne | FBS East. Mich. | Columbia |
| PAT | HOLY CROSS | 6-5 | W1 | 44 | vs. Georgetown | 2 FBS, Yale, Harvard, Lafayette | New Hampshire |
| PIO | SAN DIEGO* | 8-2 | W8 | 92 | at Jacksonville | Cal Poly, UC Davis | Harvard |
| Near-seed 1 | UNI | 7-4 | L1 | 4 | vs. West. Illinois | FBS Iowa St., Weber, NDSU, SDSU | Ill. State |
| Near-seed 2 | MONTANA ST.+ | 8-3 | W3 | 23 | vs. Montana | at FBS Texas Tech, vs. Sac St., vs UND | SEMO |
| Near-seed 3 | VILLANOVA+ | 8-3 | W2 | 36 | vs. Delaware | at JMU, vs. SB, at UNH | Towson, Maine |
| Non-seed | AUSTIN PEAY | 8-3 | W4 | 73 | vs. East. Illinois | Cent. Ark., ETSU, Tenn. St. | SEMO |
| Non-seed | MONMOUTH* | 9-2 | W7 | 66 | vs. Hampton | at FBS West Mich., at Montana | Kennesaw State, Albany |
| Non-seed | NICHOLLS* | 8-4 | W4 | 47 | WON AT SE LA. 28-27 | 2 FBS, at Sam Houston, vs. ACU | Central Arkansas, at SE La. |
| Non-seed | SEMO | 8-3 | W5 | 46 | vs. Murray State | FBS Missouri, at Mont. St., at APSU | Southern Illinois |
| Non-seed | SOUTHERN ILL. | 7-4 | W5 | 28 | vs. NDSU | FBS Ark. State., SEMO, SDSU, Ill. St. | FBS UMass |
| Non-seed | TOWSON | 7-4 | W3 | 14 | vs. Elon | at FBS Florida, Nova, Albany, JMU | Citadel, Maine |
| Non-seed | UCA+ | 9-3 | W2 | 34 | WON AT UIW 52-35 | FBS Hawaii, Nicholls, SE La. | FBS West. Ky., Austin Peay |
| Last 3 in | NORTH DAKOTA | 6-4 | W1 | 16 | vs. Southern Utah | NDSU, EWU, Idaho St., Weber St. | Montana State |
| Last 3 in | MAINE | 6-5 | W4 | 19 | at UNH | 2 FBS, Towson, Villanova, Richmond | Albany |
| Last 3 in | KENNESAW | 9-2 | W2 | 103 | vs. Gardner Webb | at FBS Kent St., Monmouth | at Missouri State |
| BUBBLE | |||||||
| BUBBLE – 1 | THE CITADEL | 6-5 | L1 | 55 | Wofford | Towson, 4 other FCS losses | P5 Ga. Tech, Furman |
| BUBBLE – 2 | FURMAN | 7-4 | L1 | 41 | vs. NAIA Point | 2 FBS, The Citadel, Wofford | NONE |
| BUBBLE – 3 | EASTERN WASH. | 6-5 | W3 | 11 | vs. Portland State | FBS Washington, 4 FCS losses | UND |
| BUBBLE – 4 | ALBANY | 7-4 | W2 | 32 | at Stony Brook | at FBS Cent. Mich., Monm., Rich., Maine | Towson |
| BUBBLE – 5 | SE LOUISIANA | 7-4 | L1 | 52 | LOST VS. NICHOLLS 28-27 | FBS Ole Miss, McNeese, UIW, Nicholls | Central Arkansas |
| BUBBLE – 6 | NEW HAMP. | 5-5 | L2 | 25 | vs. Maine | FBS FIU, HC, Dela., JMU, Albany | Villanova |
| BUBBLE – 7 | CHATTANOOGA | 6-5 | W2 | 40 | at VMI | FBS Tennessee, JMU, 3 other FCS losses | The Citadel |
| BUBBLE – 8 | UT MARTIN | 7-4 | W1 | 48 | at P5 Kentucky | FBS Florida, SIU, SEMO, APSU | NONE |
(*) – Clinched automatic playoff berth; (+) – I am projecting as "in" because these teams have reached the needed win-total based on precedent set for their conferences going back to the expansion to 24 playoff teams in 2013.
[divider]NEXT: Week 13's FCS Predictions
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