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FCS BRACKET: BMac Recalibrates With Two Key Results In Already

HERO Sports by HERO Sports
November 23, 2019
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FCS BRACKET: BMac Recalibrates With Two Key Results In Already

The FCS now has one more day to determine its playoff bracket. We did see key games played on Thursday and Friday night, and those games are now resolved. How does it look now that only one day remains to set up FCS Selection Sunday (12:30 p.m. ET – ESPNU)?​ Sam is in Bozeman, Mont. covering The Brawl of the Wild, Montana at Montana State — a massive matchup for the FCS this weekend. But I'll take a stab at things going into Saturday, now that we know more about the Southland Conference playoff picture.

[divider]MORE FCS FOOTBALL:

  • FCS Home​
  • FCS Coaches Corner Episodes
  • FCS Recruiting Rankings (Nov.)
  • Week 13's FCS Predictions

[divider]​

QUICK SUMMARY: On Thursday and Friday we had some key results that could change the dynamic slightly going into Saturday's massive slate of tide-turners. Nicholls clinched the Southland Conference's automatic playoff berth on Thursday, and tonight Central Arkansas hit the untouchable 9-win mark to be a rock-solid at-large team out of the Southland. With wins over a bowl-eligible FBS team (Western Kentucky) and one loss tossed (at Hawaii), the Bears are in, folks. They're in solidly. So how does that affect the rest of the FCS? We take a look heading into Saturday. SE Louisiana is a distant bubble team situation now, the Lions are going to have to hope for a ton of help in this. They need Maine, North Dakota and The Citadel to lose, for one. That might get SE La. into the discussion picture, in my opinion. We shall see. 

One slight change from last weekend … I'm "projecting" here. In prior weeks, I've released those "as of this week" rankings because we just had too much "projecting" to do. I picked Albany to lose at Stony Brook, thus what you see below. If that doesn't happen? Albany is a playoff lock in my opinion. I picked The Citadel to lose to Wofford, but obviously if that is wrong? Wofford is knocked out of a seeding situation and The Citadel is firmly in the playoffs … and for most of the teams listed in the at-large realm (SIU is an exception), I'm obviously thinking they'll win this weekend to sew this up. 

Now we're down to one week. This is what I think is going to happen prior to Saturday's results. Folks, if you're listed as "barely in" below? Root for everybody else to lose that is above you. Same goes for "the bubble". That is how this will go down. And anybody without a (*) or (+)? You're going to want all of those without those earmarks to fall … it'll help your case..[divider]

B-MAC'S FCS PLAYOFF LOOK GOING INTO SATURDAY

(SOS– Massey's FCS Strength of Schedule ratings this week)

NO WEEK 13 OUTLOOK REC STRK SOS WEEK 13 RESULT LOSSES TOP WINS
1 NDSU* 11-0 W11 22 at Southern Ill. NONE Ill. St., SDSU, UNI, UND
2 JMU* 10-1 W9 18 at Rhode Island FBS West Virginia Villanova, Towson
3 MONTANA+ 9-2 W4 2 at Montana State FBS Oregon, at Sac St Weber State, Monmouth
4 SACRAMENTO ST.+ 8-3 W2 3 vs. UC Davis 2 FBS, Weber State Montana, Montana St.
5 ILLINOIS ST.+ 8-3 W2 27 at Youngstown St. FBS No. Illinois, NDSU, UNI SIU, SDSU
6 SDSU+ 8-3 W1 10 at So. Dakota FBS Minnesota, NDSU, Ill. St. SIU, UNI
7 WEBER+ 8-3 L1 1 vs. Idaho State 2 FBS, at Montana UNI, at Sac. St., UND
8 WOFFORD* 7-3 W2 50 at The Citadel FBS Clemson, S.C. State, Samford Furman
NEC CCSU* 10-1 W7 101 at Duquesne FBS East. Mich. Columbia
PAT HOLY CROSS 6-5 W1 44 vs. Georgetown 2 FBS, Yale, Harvard, Lafayette New Hampshire
PIO SAN DIEGO* 8-2 W8 92 at Jacksonville Cal Poly, UC Davis Harvard
Near-seed 1 UNI 7-4 L1 4 vs. West. Illinois FBS Iowa St., Weber, NDSU, SDSU Ill. State
Near-seed 2 MONTANA ST.+ 8-3 W3 23 vs. Montana at FBS Texas Tech, vs. Sac St., vs UND SEMO
Near-seed 3 VILLANOVA+ 8-3 W2 36 vs. Delaware at JMU, vs. SB, at UNH Towson, Maine
Non-seed AUSTIN PEAY 8-3 W4 73 vs. East. Illinois Cent. Ark., ETSU, Tenn. St. SEMO
Non-seed MONMOUTH* 9-2 W7 66 vs. Hampton at FBS West Mich., at Montana Kennesaw State, Albany
Non-seed NICHOLLS* 8-4 W4 47 WON AT SE LA. 28-27 2 FBS, at Sam Houston, vs. ACU Central Arkansas, at SE La.
Non-seed SEMO 8-3 W5 46 vs. Murray State FBS Missouri, at Mont. St., at APSU Southern Illinois
Non-seed SOUTHERN ILL. 7-4 W5 28 vs. NDSU FBS Ark. State., SEMO, SDSU, Ill. St. FBS UMass
Non-seed TOWSON 7-4 W3 14 vs. Elon at FBS Florida, Nova, Albany, JMU Citadel, Maine
Non-seed UCA+ 9-3 W2 34 WON AT UIW 52-35 FBS Hawaii, Nicholls, SE La. FBS West. Ky., Austin Peay
Last 3 in NORTH DAKOTA 6-4 W1 16 vs. Southern Utah NDSU, EWU, Idaho St., Weber St. Montana State
Last 3 in MAINE 6-5 W4 19 at UNH 2 FBS, Towson, Villanova, Richmond Albany
Last 3 in KENNESAW 9-2 W2 103 vs. Gardner Webb at FBS Kent St., Monmouth at Missouri State
  BUBBLE            
BUBBLE – 1 THE CITADEL 6-5 L1 55 Wofford Towson, 4 other FCS losses P5 Ga. Tech, Furman
BUBBLE – 2 FURMAN 7-4 L1 41 vs. NAIA Point 2 FBS, The Citadel, Wofford NONE
BUBBLE – 3 EASTERN WASH. 6-5 W3 11 vs. Portland State FBS Washington, 4 FCS losses UND
BUBBLE – 4 ALBANY 7-4 W2 32 at Stony Brook at FBS Cent. Mich., Monm., Rich., Maine Towson
BUBBLE – 5 SE LOUISIANA 7-4 L1 52 LOST VS. NICHOLLS 28-27 FBS Ole Miss, McNeese, UIW, Nicholls Central Arkansas
BUBBLE – 6 NEW HAMP. 5-5 L2 25 vs. Maine FBS FIU, HC, Dela., JMU, Albany Villanova
BUBBLE – 7 CHATTANOOGA 6-5 W2 40 at VMI FBS Tennessee, JMU, 3 other FCS losses The Citadel
BUBBLE – 8 UT MARTIN 7-4 W1 48 at P5 Kentucky FBS Florida, SIU, SEMO, APSU NONE

(*) – Clinched automatic playoff berth; (+) – I am projecting as "in" because these teams have reached the needed win-total based on precedent set for their conferences going back to the expansion to 24 playoff teams in 2013.

[divider]NEXT: Week 13's FCS Predictions

Listen to the latest episodes of B-Mac and Herd's FCS Podcast, which is also available on iTunes, Spotify, iHeart, Stitcher and Spreaker.​​

SUBSCRIBE: B-Mac and Herd's FCS Podcast

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