We're nearing the halfway point of the 2019 FCS season, which means the margin for error for playoff hopefuls is getting smaller.
The race for the 4-5 postseason bids for the Missouri Valley Football Conference is going to be a tight one. With the option of having a 12-game schedule this year, hitting eight Division 1 wins is key while winning seven gives you a shot, depending on who those wins come against.
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With that said, let's look at every MVFC team at this point in the season and guess what percentage they have to make the 24-team bracket.
We'll do this for the Top 3 conferences that for sure have at least three bids.
Oct. 8: Big Sky
Oct. 9: CAA
Oct. 10: MVFC
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Illinois State
Record: 3-2 overall, 3-1 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ SIU, @ WIU, vs. Ind. State, vs. UNI, @ SDSU, vs. Mo State, @ YSU
55 percent – Is NDSU really that good? Or were the Redbirds over-ranked? That's the question we're asking after the Bison's dominating 37-3 win in Normal. With their top two receivers out, the Redbirds were too one-dimensional on offense. And the defense didn't look as strong as expected. There is some worry with Illinois State, but it still is 3-1 against FCS opponents. The next three games are favorable along with a late home game against Missouri State. The key is going 4-0 in those games and then notching at least one win in November against UNI, SDSU or YSU to feel comfortable with eight victories.
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Indiana State
Record: 2-3 overall, 2-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. WIU, vs. SDSU, @ Ill. State, vs. SIU, @ UNI, vs. YSU, @ Mo State
25 percent – The Sycamores were one of the first teams left out of the 2018 field with a 7-4 record and only six wins against D1 teams. With a majority of its starting lineup back, Indiana State came into 2019 preseason ranked No. 16. After giving FBS Kansas a scare in the opener, Indiana State lost a head-scratcher against Dayton. Then the Sycamores defeated two average OVC teams by only two possessions, losing its preseason First Team All-Conference quarterback Ryan Boyle during that time. Things are not looking good for the Sycamores now, coming off a 38-0 loss at South Dakota, a team that really struggled in September. The toughest part of the schedule is still ahead with games against SDSU, Illinois State, UNI and YSU. I don't like Indiana State's chances to win five or six of its final seven games based on what I'm seeing.
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Missouri State
Record: 1-3 overall, 1-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. USD, @ NDSU, vs. UNI, vs. SDSU, @ SIU, @ Ill. State, vs. Ind. State
10 percent – The Bears would have to win six of their last seven games to finish 7-4. The odds of that happening are just not good when looking at the upcoming opponents. Even finishing 6-5 when teams are playing 12 games doesn't look promising for Mo State's playoff chances. There will be a lot of seven and eight D1-win teams on the playoff bubble.
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North Dakota State
Record: 5-0 overall, 5-0 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 3 (No. 15 Dela, No. 24 UC Davis, No. 14 Ill. State)
Remaining Games: vs. UNI, vs. Mo State, @ SDSU, @ YSU, vs. WIU, vs. USD, @ SIU
99 percent – There still is not a 100% guarantee the Bison make the playoffs. But it's as close as you can ask for at this point. NDSU is 5-0 and looking like a team capable of going 12-0 in the regular season. It's toughest three games appear to be in the next four contests, so we'll see if the Bison can stay clean. But while the coaches and players say they're taking it one game at a time, we all know this team is eyeing the long-term goals of earning a Top 2 seed en route to another national title.
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Northern Iowa
Record: 3-2 overall, 3-1 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 1 (No. 19 YSU)
Remaining Games: @ NDSU, vs. USD, @ Mo State, @ Ill. State, vs. Ind. State, @ SDSU, vs. WIU
66 percent – The Panthers have made the playoffs four times in the last five seasons, winning at least one postseason game in each of those years. UNI has one of its better starts to a season, record-wise, in recent memory. The Panthers, who always play a tough nonconference schedule, started 2-3 overall in 2017 and 2018 and had to play with its back against the wall. They are currently 3-1 coming off a ranked win against YSU. I feel strongly this team will defeat USD, Mo State, Indiana State and WIU. There's seven wins, but a 7-5 UNI team maybe gets into the bracket. The Panthers need to knock off one more currently-ranked opponent (NDSU, Illinois State or SDSU) to feel good with eight victories.
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South Dakota
Record: 2-3 overall, 2-2 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ Mo state, @ UNI, vs. SIU, @ WIU, vs. YSU, @ NDSU, vs. SDSU
30 percent – I give USD 5 percentage points higher than Indiana State since both have similar resumes, but the Coyotes have the head-to-head win. But like the Sycamores, USD has had its struggles to start this season even with a current two-game winning streak. With UNI coming up and YSU, NDSU and SDSU to finish the season, it would be a big surprise if the Coyotes reach seven wins to enter the discussion of an at-large bid.
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South Dakota State
Record: 4-1 overall, 4-0 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ YSU, @ Ind. State, vs. NDSU, @ Mo State, vs. Ill. State, vs. UNI, @ USD
85 percent – SDSU is 4-0 with zero quality wins. But with a lot of guys back off of last year's semifinal team, I feel comfortable calling this one of the top teams in the FCS. I'll either be proven right or proven wrong in two of the next three games against YSU and NDSU. The Jacks also have back-to-back home games against Illinois State and UNI that are going to play a big part in SDSU's playoff positioning. There are no promises we see the Jacks in the bracket just yet, especially with four games against currently-ranked teams that are far from guaranteed wins. But the odds are looking good. If the Jackrabbits avoid letdown performance, they should be in the running for another seed.
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Southern Illinois
Record: 2-3 overall, 1-3 vs. FCS + 1 FBS win
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. Ill. State, vs. YSU, @ USD, @ Ind. State, vs. Mo State, @ WIU, vs. NDSU
35 percent – The Salukis have an FBS win to pad its resume, a 45-20 thumping at UMass. But they still only have 2 D1 wins at this point in the season. A 7-5 SIU team with the FBS win should be in the field, but there's no guarantee of that (Example: UND went 7-4 in 2015 with a win against Craig Bohl's Wyoming but didn't make the playoffs). But that means the Salukis have to win five of their next seven MVFC games. SIU looked decent this last week in the first half versus SDSU. So that is promising. If the Salukis can get two big home wins against Illinois State and YSU, then they have a good chance with the following four games being favorable before taking on the Bison.
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Western Illinois
Record: 0-5 overall, 0-4 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: @ Ind. State, vs. Ill. State, @ YSU, vs. USD, @ NDSU, vs. SIU, @ UNI
5 percent – WIU needs to win out to reach seven D1 wins. There's little to no evidence to show this year's team is capable of doing that. It's a rebuilding year for the Leathernecks, a solid program that routinely competes for a playoff spot. This season isn't that year for them as a talented senior class from last year is gone and the Leathernecks need to find some pieces to get going again.
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Youngstown State
Record: 4-1 overall, 4-1 vs. FCS
(Currently) Ranked Wins: 0
Remaining Games: vs. SDSU, @ SIU, vs. WIU, vs. NDSU, @ USD, @ Ind. State, vs. Ill. State
65 percent – The status of starting QB Nathan Mays is unknown after he suffering an ugly-looking leg injury late in a narrow loss to UNI last week. His health is key in the Penguins returning to the playoffs. They're sitting in a good spot right now at 4-1. The schedule does strengthen up in a big way, though. SDSU comes to town on Saturday and NDSU will too in a few weeks. The regular-season finale should be a huge one against Illinois State. That game is at home as well. So the toughest opponents are on YSU's home turf. Even if the Penguins were to lose all three of those, the other four games (even though three of them are on the road) look like wins to me. YSU has a strong chance to finish with at least eight wins, which will get the program in the postseason once again. However, consistency has been an issue for the Penguins in recent seasons. So letdown performances need to be avoided.
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NEXT: Top 15 Favorites To Win The National Title After Week 6
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