The 2018 FCS playoff bubble was not a strong one, especially compared to the 2017 bubble. Last year's first three out were Indiana State (six Division 1 wins), Monmouth (8-3 but beat no one) and North Dakota (6-5 overall).
Compare that to the 2017 bubble that included 7-4 teams like Eastern Washington, Delaware and Montana. Then you also had 9-2 McNeese State and 8-4 Austin Peay.
Entering 2018, there were several teams who felt playoff snubbed. The automatic "Leave No Doubt" team mantra was adopted by more than one program. Entering this season, the snubbed is a much smaller group, if a group at all.
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Indiana State shouldn't have scheduled a non-D1 opponent, Monmouth should have beaten someone noteworthy and UND lost three out of its last four games, two ugly ones against Idaho and Northern Arizona. Nonetheless, there are still plenty of teams who believe they have a good chance to make the 2019 bracket despite not doing so last season.
Keep in mind that this isn't necessarily predicting all 11 of these teams will make the playoffs. But these are the teams, in alphabetical order, that have the best chance to reach the postseason after missing out last year.
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Central Arkansas
UCA is loaded coming off a 6-5 season that saw a three-game losing streak from late October to early November. Roughly 16 starters on O and D return, including every offensive linemen and sophomore QB Luke Hales.
The Southland Conference was wildly unpredictable last year. As cliche as the saying has become, it was legitimately true than anyone could beat anyone on any given Saturday. After making the playoffs in 2016 and 2017, UCA looks primed for a return to the postseason.
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Chattanooga
At 6-5 last year, Chattanooga lost its last two SoCon games by a combined 10 points. The Mocs have around 14 starters back on offense and defense, eight of which are on O. Six-foot-5 Nick Tiano is one of the more underrated QBs in the FCS and he'll have a top WR in Bryce Nunnelly as a target.
The nonconference is incredibly tough. It's highlighted by games against FBS Tennessee and likely preseason FCS Top 10 teams in Jacksonville State and James Madison. The SoCon won't be any easier this year either. But the talent and experience are there for the Mocs.
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Eastern Kentucky
EKU returns eight starters on both offense and defense after being left out of the 2018 field at 7-4. The Colonels defeated playoff participant SEMO and two of its losses came to FBS teams. But a 56-7 loss to JSU didn't help its postseason hopes.
This year's OVC schedule is tough with November road games at SEMO and JSU. Keep an eye on the Sept. 14 game at Indiana State, another 7-4 team left out of the playoffs in 2018.
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Furman
The Paladins had some tough luck last year. Their game against Colgate, who ended up being the No. 8 seed, was canceled due to weather. Who knows how that game would've played out, but Furman was left with a 6-4 overall record and outside the playoff bracket.
The team is stacked entering 2019. About nine starters are back on offense and seven on defense. The big question mark is who steps in as the new starting QB. This is a team that finished tied for first in the SoCon standings at 6-2 with ETSU and Wofford, yet saw the other two make the playoffs. With the number of returning starters, Furman will be at the top of the standings again.
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Illinois State
Illinois State hasn't lived up to preseason expectations in recent years. Consistency is an issue. The Redbirds started 5-1 last year with a 35-19 dismantling of FBS Colorado State. Yet they could not reach the playoffs after going on a four-game losing streak that resulted in a 6-5 record.
On paper, this is the most talented roster the Redbirds have had in a while. Right around 16 starters are coming back on offense and defense. James Robinson is one of the best running backs in the country, QB Brady Davis is back, the OL remains mostly intact and the defense should be strong. Now it's just a matter of if the Redbirds can play to their potential.
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Indiana State
Indiana State was one of the best stories in the FCS last year, going from 0-11 in 2017 to 7-4 and 5-3 in the MVFC. But the season-opening win against D2 Quincy proved to be costly despite ending the season on a five-game winning streak.
If the Sycamores can make that big of a jump from 2017 to 2018, this season could be special. They return every offensive starter minus one lineman along with six defensive starters. Ryan Boyle will be a top QB in the conference and LB Jonas Griffith is a beast to anchor the defense.
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Montana
Late-season woes haunted the Grizzlies again, losing four of their last six to finish 6-5. A fumble on the goal line with just seconds remaining resulted in a 29-25 heartbreaking loss to Montana State. This was essentially a playoff play-in game on Nov. 17. That's now three seasons in a row with no playoff appearance for one of the top FCS blue bloods.
Montana returns most of its starting lineup, roughly 17 starters on O and D. The weapons on offense are eye-opening and LB Dante Olson is as good a player as any to build your defense around. The OL needs to improve, though, allowing 2.27 sacks per game (T81st in the FCS). And consistency is the No. 1 key.
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New Hampshire
When fully healthy, UNH showed what it can do with a 35-24 November win against No. 3 JMU. But some tough injuries resulted in a 4-7 record. The Wildcats were a playoff constant for many years and missed the postseason for the first time since 2004.
About fifteen starters are back on offense and defense with the No. 1 question being who can solidify the QB spot. The offense struggled for a good chunk of the season whether senior Trevor Knight was behind center or not, averaging just 17.82 points per game. Expect UNH to be one year better with the amount of experience returning. The CAA will once again be a top conference in the FCS, and the Wildcats will be part of the playoff mix.
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North Dakota
The Fighting Hawks stuck with an 11-game schedule this year as most of its offensive and defensive starters return. Coming off a 6-5 season, UND should be an improved team, especially if the RB group and interior DL can develop depth. The Hawks need to hit seven wins, and finding six wins on the schedule isn't too tough (although Sam Houston State at home is more of a 50/50 game).
That means to get a minimum seventh win on UND's challenging schedule, it needs to knock off at least one of five 2018 playoff teams: NDSU, EWU, UC Davis, Montana State or Weber State. Three of those are on the road. It's definitely doable. But the Hawks need to get that win against SHSU first and avoid letdown performances against the likes of Idaho State, Cal Poly, etc.
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Sam Houston State
It was a down year for the Bearkats in 2018, finishing 6-5. But as one of the most successful programs in the FCS in the 2010s, SHSU doesn't stay down long. The offense got going with redshirt freshman QB Ty Brock taking over as the starter in the final eight games. The 3-star recruit's future is incredibly bright as the offense returns around eight starters this year, the same number as the defense.
An NAIA game against Oklahoma Panhandle won't help any, and tough road nonconference games include New Mexico and UND. With 16 returning starters, though, a 3-0 record with an FBS win is definitely possible. Consistency against Southland opponents is key. The wins and losses were all over the place in the conference slate. SHSU has an experienced team, and with that should come more consistent play.
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The Citadel
A third SoCon team on this list shows just how insane the race in the standings is going to be. This conference is going to be incredibly improved, but the teams within it need to perform well in the nonconference to get more than two bids into the playoffs. The Citadel may not be on many people's radars nationally, but the Bulldogs should be with about 10 returning starters on offense and seven on defense.
This team went 5-6 last year, but was a pest in the SoCon. The Bulldogs pushed teams at the top of the standings, yet couldn't seal the deal and lost three SoCon games by seven points or less. Two of those came against co-champs Wofford and ETSU. With Brandon Rainey experienced at QB and the addition of SHSU transfer RB Remus Bulmer, this team is loaded and looks to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
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