John Hooper is one of HERO Sports' FCS Campus Correspondents, and he resides in the Greenville-Spartanburg area of South Carolina. He's a longtime Southern Conference "expert" and tracks the league for HERO Sports. You can follow John on Twitter @SoConJohn. Read John's SoCon picks every week.
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SOCON WEEK EIGHT PICKS
For the first time this season, I don’t have any apologies to hand out following a 2-0 record in predicting last week’s outcomes, picking both VMI and The Citadel correctly in games against Samford and Western Carolina. Granted, it was a light week in league play, but I will take it, as it has been as tough as I can remember predicting games week-in and week-out on the SoCon gridiron. With that momentum going forward, here’s my outlook for week eight.
REPORT CARD: SoCon's Midseason Look
Here’s a look at how Week 8 might pan out.
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The Citadel (3-4, 1-2 SoCon) at No. 8 Furman (4-2, 3-0 SoCon), 1 p.m. EST
Furman finds itself with its highest ranking since the final poll of the 2006 season, but it’s also a two-edged sabre, as the Paladins head into their game with arch-rival The Citadel ripe for the upset and an already talented Bulldog team finally has a fully healthy Brandon Rainey under center for the first time since the big win over Georgia Tech. Saturday’s meeting between the two will take place on homecoming.
Saturday’s meeting between the Paladins and Bulldogs marks the 99th all-time clash between the two Southern Conference rivals, as Furman holds a 60-35-3 all-time advantage. No two teams have met more on the Southern Conference gridiron than the two charter members, and Saturday’s clash at Paladin Stadium figures to be another donnybrook.
Historically speaking, the games in this rivalry are always physical and close, and with Furman gaining its first Top 10 ranking in 13 years coupled with the fact that The Citadel has their proverbial backs to the wall for an FCS playoff bid, it should add an even greater edge to the already bitter rivalry.
Both teams make the most of the big play in the passing game, with both Furman and The Citadel looking for chunks of yards through the air this season. The Paladins, led by quarterback Darren Grainger (59-of-99 passing, 974 yds, 11 TDs, 2 INTs/55 rush att, 201 yds, 4 TDs, 3.7 YPC), have posted a pass play of 25 or more yards in five of six games this season,as well as posting pass plays of 40 or more yards in four of six games in 2019.
The Citadel has posted 39 completions between quarterbacks Brandon Rainey (36-of-62 passing, 625 yds, 8 TDs, 3 INTs/131 rush att, 433 yds, 13 TDs, 3.3 YPC) and Brian Murdaugh (3-of-5 passing, 81 yds, 1 TD), with 23% of those completions going for touchdowns. While Furman head coach Clay Hendrix won’t label his offense a triple-option, there are similarities in how the Paladins and Bulldogs utilize big plays in the passing attack.
While the ground game is a noted feature of both offenses with Furman ranking fourth in FCS in rushing offense per game (301.0 YPG) and The Citadel ranking 13th (241.4 YPG), both teams have game-changers at receiver, in The Citadel’s Raleigh Webb (18 rec, 373 yds, 7 TDs, 20.7 YPR) and Furman’s Thomas Gordon (24 rec, 407 yds, 4 TDs, 17.0 YPR) could be key for Saturday’s victor. Another area to watch in any close game is special teams, and Furman and The Citadel have two of the best kicking games in the FCS nation.
Furman has been outstanding on the defensive side of the football this season, ranking 13th nationally in scoring defense (19.8 PPG) having not allowed more than 14 points to any FCS opponent and less than 30 points to five of its six opponents, The Citadel has scored 20 or more points in every game this season.
This one will be close as rivalries games usually are, however, expect Furman to remain unbeaten in the SoCon and post its third-straight win over The Citadel in the Clay Hendrix era.
Final Score Prediction: Furman 33, The Citadel 28
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Western Carolina (1-5, 0-3 SoCon) at Wofford (3-2, 2-1 SoCon), 1:30 p.m. EST
Saturday’s clash between Western Carolina and Wofford will mark the 42nd time Saturday afternoon at Gibbs Stadium, with the Terriers holding a commanding 27-14 all-time series edge. The Terriers claimed a 38-23 win over the Catamounts at E.J. Whitmire Stadium last season.
Western Carolina will be looking to put an end to a three-game losing streak in the series, and a 13-game losing streak to Division I competition and haven’t won a game away from E.J. Whitmire Stadium since a 31-19 win over The Citadel on Nov. 3, 2017–a streak of seven-straight losses away from Whitmire Stadium.
The Catamounts are coming off a 35-17 loss at The Citadel last weekend, while Wofford had a bye. The Terriers, however, remain one of the hottest teams in the SoCon, having won three-straight after starting the season 0-2. A fourth-straight win might see the Terriers find themselves back into the FCS national Top 25 next week after falling out last week with a 21-14 loss in their Southern Conference opener to Samford.
The Catamounts have seen some improvement on the offensive side of the ball since Tyrie Adams (72-of-105 passing, 720 yds, 5 TDs, 5 INTs/66 rush att, 280 yds, 4 TDs, 4.2 YPC) has been re-introduced into the fold at quarterback, and the four new starters offensive along the offensive line are continuing to gain experience along the way. The Catamounts are nowhere near the offensive production they enjoyed last season, ranking 88th in the nation in total offense (348.8 YPG), which ranks more than 147 yards less than what the Purple and Gold ended the season averaging.
Defensively, the Catamounts aren’t quite as bad overall as the 515 YPG they surrendered overall last season, ranking 115th nationally to end the season in 2018, however, are significantly worse against the run than a year ago, as the Catamounts currently rank 116th in the FCS against the run, surrendering 263.3 YPG on the ground. Last season, Western ended the season surrendering just 214.6 YPG against the run.
That doesn’t bode well when facing Joe Newman (21-of-42 passing, 378 yds, 3 TDs, 4 INTs/68 rush att, 590 yds, 6 TDs, 8.7 YPC) and that vaunted Wofford ground attack, which ranks second nationally, averaging 357.2 YPG on the ground. This one should not be close, as Wofford wins its fourth-straight game and slowly but surely starts to creep back into the SoCon race.
Final Score Prediction: Wofford 44, Western Carolina 20
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VMI (4-3, 3-1 SoCon) at Mercer (2-4, 1-2 SoCon), 3 p,m. EST
VMI has become one of the stories of the FCS football season, and the Keydets come in off a dramatic 48-41 overtime win over Samford last Saturday, securing its first four-win season in over a decade. A win over Mercer would give the Keydets its most wins in a season since going 6-6 back in 2002.
It was the Keydets’ second overtime win in Southern Conference play this season and was also the program’s second-straight win.
Offensively, VMI has resembled a well-oiled machine of late, featuring more balance under second-year offensive coordinator Brian Sheppard, utilizing record-breaking quarterback Reece Udinski through the air (192-of-298 passing, 2,051 yds, 13 TDs, 0 INTs) and running back Alex Ramsey (158 rush att, 810 rush yds, 15 TDs, 5.1 YPC) on the ground, with Ramsey sometimes a weapon in both areas of the offense. Ramsey also has 237 yards receiving on 32 receptions this season.
Ramsey’s 810 yards leads the nation in rushing, while his 15 TDs rank him second in FCS in touchdowns scored through seven games. The final Top 10 category he ranks in nationally is all-purpose, as his 1,047 total amassed yards ranks him 10th overall in FCS in 2019. With his 193-yard, six TD effort in the win last week over Samford, Ramsey was recognized as the STATS FCS National Player of the Week.
His six touchdowns last week set a new VMI single-game mark and tied a Southern Conference record for rushing scores in a game. Udinski has still yet to throw an interception this season through 298 pass attempts, shattering the old record of 252 by former Furman quarterback Braniff Bonaventure in 1996.
Mercer will look to snap a four-game losing streak Saturday against the Keydets, and the off week couldn’t have come at a better time for head coach Bobby Lamb’s Bears. Mercer struggled running the ball against Chattanooga in the 34-17 a couple of weeks ago, which is VMI’s deficiency.
In fact, Mercer and VMI sport two of the worst defenses in all of FCS football, with the Bears rank 100th nationally in total defense (449.2 YPG), while VMI ranks 102nd (453.6 YPG) in the FCS.
Will quarterback Robert Riddle (109-of-193 passing, 1,321 yds, 14 TDs, 10 INTs) and wide receiver Tucker Cannon (19 rec, 392 yds, 3 TDs, ) be enough for Mercer to secure its first home win of the season? I don’t think so, as I am going with the Keydets here on Military Appreciation Day in Macon.
Final Score Prediction: VMI 38, Mercer 34
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